Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[jm1220]

Sleet having a bit of a hard time getting N that far of I-80 in PA which might be a good sign for us. But if the precip is delayed we have less time in any cold air aloft. I’d love to believe the HRRR but it easily might just be on crack. 

[lee59]

32 degrees here with a light east wind.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, ice storm warning there. I guess their elevated location is closer to the mid level warm nose, so the precip can’t refreeze in time to form sleet. 

Could see half an inch of ice near Philly.

I'd rather have our slush over that.

[steve392]

Start times keep getting pushed back for my area. 

[MANDA]

Currently 27 here.

Sticking with my forecast of 2-4” (snow / sleet total) here.  

Very fast moving and fully expecting sleet here within 2-3 hours tops of start time. Heaviest and steadiest precipitation should be pulling away around 3 a.m.

Per radar start time here about 7:30.

[WestBabylonWeather]

31.5/20.4

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet having a bit of a hard time getting N that far of I-80 in PA which might be a good sign for us. But if the precip is delayed we have less time in any cold air aloft. I’d love to believe the HRRR but it easily might just be on crack. 

Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period.  The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away

[psv88]

Radar looks like crap. 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period.  The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away

We’ll know soon enough who the winner is.  Interesting stuff.

[Allsnow]

I think this looks pretty identical to the radar currently in Pa. Everything looks aimed towards the metro but what ptype is up to debate. I do like how strong and solid the returns looks currently 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I think this looks pretty identical to the radar currently in Pa. Everything looks aimed towards the metro but what ptype is up to debate. I do like how strong and solid the returns looks currently 

As it gets in to deeper cold its snow even for nyc. One thing is for sure the intense precip on radar is aimed at nyc,we might get some wild snowfall before any change or mixing occurs.

[Rjay]

35 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

As of 5PM Johnstown which is an elevated location was reporting Freezing rain.  Pittsburgh Intl was reporting a thunderstorm… lol.  This is certainly a dynamic system.

34 degees with a thunderstorm at KPIT the last 2 hours lol

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think this looks pretty identical to the radar currently in Pa. Everything looks aimed towards the metro but what ptype is up to debate. I do like how strong and solid the returns looks currently 

As of 6 PM you have to be north of I80 if you want to find snow in PA.  The only exception is Fort Indiantown Gap which is reporting flurries.  Everyone else is reporting ice / sleet/ wintry mix or rain.  All Pittsburgh reporting sites are reporting thunderstorms.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

34 degees with a thunderstorm at KPIT the last 2 hours lol

Lets make it 29f and thundersnow in nyc in a few..that should give us some excitement and hush up the snowmans of the world. 

[allgame830]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Radar looks like crap. 

I 100% disagree 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

I 100% disagree 

hello fellow mid-westchester dweller. i think we're in good-ish spot compared to the majority of the sub. time will most definitely tell, but im gonna guess 3-4" in wp, maybe 4-6 thornwood?

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

I 100% disagree 

The radar is juicing up heading right for us,i dunno what others are looking at?? lol

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

hello fellow mid-westchester dweller. i think we're in good-ish spot compared to the majority of the sub. time will most definitely tell, but im gonna guess 3-4" in wp, maybe 4-6 thornwood?

Agreed I like those estimates. Currently 31/18 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

As of 6 PM you have to be north of I80 if you want to find snow in PA.  The only exception is Fort Indiantown Gap which is reporting flurries.  Everyone else is reporting ice / sleet/ wintry mix or rain.  All Pittsburgh reporting sites are reporting thunderstorms.  

I was more referring to how the radar looked not the placement of the rain/snow line 

[RU848789]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think this looks pretty identical to the radar currently in Pa. Everything looks aimed towards the metro but what ptype is up to debate. I do like how strong and solid the returns looks currently 

Agreed.  The current radar at 6:30 pm is quite close to what the fairly snowy 21Z HRRR was showing for 7 pm pm, whereas the 18Z NAM at 7 pm looked weak and spotty.  Doesn't mean the HRRR will be right and the NAM wrong, but that's the case so far, IMO.

[Allsnow]

18z euro is mainly sleet and frz rain for the metro 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed.  The current radar is quite close to what the fairly snowy 21Z HRRR was showing at 6 pm, whereas the 18Z NAM at 7 pm looked weak and spotty.  Doesn't mean the HRRR will be right and the NAM wrong, but that's the case so far, IMO.

Not sure where you got that radar view on the bottom from but it’s not correct.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed.  The current radar at 6:30 pm is quite close to what the fairly snowy 21Z HRRR was showing for 7 pm pm, whereas the 18Z NAM at 7 pm looked weak and spotty.  Doesn't mean the HRRR will be right and the NAM wrong, but that's the case so far, IMO.

CC radar has sleet almost to Williamsport. HRRR is too cold. 

[NCPOW]

15 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Agreed I like those estimates. Currently 31/18 

Fingers crossed in Ardsley. 30.6 here. 

[jm1220]

But there’s also a lot of precip south of where the NAM has it so that’s wrong too. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

But there’s also a lot of precip south of where the NAM has it so that’s wrong too. 

Meso discussion 

 

SUMMARY...Snow should overspread the region in the next few hours. With time, the snow should transition to sleet and even freezing rain before ending later this evening/overnight.

DISCUSSION...An area of mixed winter precipitation continues across western and central Pennsylvania this evening. This precipitation area developed/is being maintained on the nose of strong low-level warm-air advection across a deep layer. Over the next few hours this warm-air advection and associated isentropic ascent will overspread eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Surface temperatures in the upper-20Fs and low-30Fs, coupled with dewpoint temperatures in the upper-teens and low-20Fs, yield wet-bulb temperatures below 32F. Thermal profiles across the region will initially support all snow. However, as the warm-air advection warms the low-levels, the maximum temperature in the column should increase above 32F yielding sleet and potentially eventually freezing rain before precipitation ends 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

But there’s also a lot of precip south of where the NAM has it so that’s wrong too. 

It'll probably get in here around 730, maybe 745, could come down hard for awhile but its hard to tell just yet if it'll be sleet or snow, it could be like 70% snow/30% sleet

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It'll probably get in here around 730, maybe 745, could come down hard for awhile but its hard to tell just yet if it'll be sleet or snow, it could be like 70% snow/30% sleet

Well-I’m in Long Beach tonight so I’ll do my old job to warn everyone the sleet’s on its way. The Paul Revere of sleetfests over the years. 

[jm1220]

I do like that it looks like a solid heavy slug of precip in PA. Hopefully it can hold the warm air back a little. And sleet pounding into it will just make it heavier and longer lasting. I don’t really mind mixing with sleet if we have a few inches down first (not what I’m expecting on the south shore but maybe at home on the north shore).