Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[psv88]

RGEM is warning level snows for Long Island. Crazy model spread 

[BxEngine]

45 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

*not what I think - just to be clear*

my WWA went from 1-3 yesterday, to 2-5 this morning, to 3-6 this afternoon with some ice… seems like that’s the reverse order of how it should have gone 

 

 

42 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

What is start time at EWR - moms flight just got pushed back and is worried about getting out later. 

Just a thought…if its ok to criticize the professionals, we should probably be able to find this information using modeling websites. 

[allgame830]

32/15

[BoulderWX]

Just now, BxEngine said:

 

Just a thought…if its ok to criticize the professionals, we should probably be able to find this information using modeling websites. 

Wow. Definitely not criticizing. At all. 
 

was literally saying I was surprised that they were raising totals, there is a huge difference between healthy skepticism and criticizing. You clearly don’t know my posting style at all if you think that.

 

 

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

you think there will be anything left on the ground before the next possible event mid-week ?

100% yes, assuming we get ~0.5" frozen QPF (and especially if it's mostly sleet, which melts more slowly than snow), given highs in the upper 30s Sunday and Monday and cold nights

[ag3]

Latest Hrrr colder and snowier.

Way too much negativity here.

Enjoy what you get.

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

RGEM is warning level snows for Long Island. Crazy model spread 

How do we make that happen 

[rgwp96]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

How do we make that happen 

By driving north a 100 miles lol

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wow. Definitely not criticizing. At all. 
 

was literally saying I was surprised that they were raising totals, there is a huge difference between healthy skepticism and criticizing. You clearly don’t know my posting style at all if you think that.

 

 

Well I think the issue mostly is that everyone criticizes the NWS and they are some of the most knowledgeable Mets out there. So maybe they know a crap load more than us! 

[NYER72]

NYS still 3-5 for Brooklyn

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

100% yes, assuming we get ~0.5" frozen QPF (and especially if it's mostly sleet, which melts more slowly than snow), given highs in the upper 30s Sunday and Monday and cold nights

we will see I will be visiting friends in Metuchen on Monday.....I say it all depends how much sun shines........

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I am bare here.  I am figuring maybe a half inch of sleet with some ice to boot here.

Why so low?  NWS has you getting ~2" of dense snow/sleet (0.4" QPF as snow/sleet, so ~4" of snow worth), then 0.1" of ZR which will be absorbed into the pack.  Do you think they're going to be that far off?  

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Just looks like a SW flow event where the SLP parent, ends up in Western PA, transfers its energy south of LI, and heads ENE. For NYC, and where I am especially SI, I'll see an hr or 2 of thumping snow, then the usual pinging, then rain. Wash, rinse, and repeat, especially this Winter. We had all the cold we could ever ask for, and we've gotten absolutely nothing to show for it. What a pathetic Winter!! When we can say Pensacola FL had gotten more snow than we've gotten, it is quite sad if you ask me. Now we're in our best snow month, at least for the city, and we can't buy a snow event. I mean an event where it doesn't change to slop!! Anyway, I've said my peace, and this is why I stopped tracking because of garbage like today. Went from 5-8" to 1-2" in less than 12 hrs, what a joke. Enjoy the slop, I know I won't!!

Sent from my SM-A155M using Tapatalk

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Well I think the issue mostly is that everyone criticizes the NWS and they are some of the most knowledgeable Mets out there. So maybe they know a crap load more than us! 

And I agree with that statement whole heartedly.. I get the sentiment of his post, but he’s directing his anger at the wrong guy. I was the one who was giving NWS kudos last storm while all were bashing. People are allowed to also share if they think it will be higher than or lower than forecast amounts, without it being criticism or bashing. 

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

we will see I will be visiting friends in Metuchen on Monday.....I say it all depends how much sun shines........

That matters a bit too, of course, but it's not April yet, so I think more than half will still be around and 90% in the shade - and I happen to live on a shady property (across from Tommy's Pond if you know Metuchen).  

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NYER72 said:

NYS still 3-5 for Brooklyn

Sleet snow combo. If we get heavy precip that stays all frozen 3" could happen

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Why so low?  NWS has you getting ~2" of dense snow/sleet (0.4" QPF as snow/sleet, so ~4" of snow worth), then 0.1" of ZR which will be absorbed into the pack.  Do you think they're going to be that far off?  

Yes.  I will post a picture in the morning of the final result!

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

And I agree with that statement whole heartedly.. I get the sentiment of his post, but he’s directing his anger at the wrong guy. I was the one who was giving NWS kudos last storm while all were bashing. People are allowed to also share if they think it will be higher than or lower than forecast amounts, without it being criticism or bashing. 

Absolutely agreed on the fact that everyone is allowed to share their own opinion on what may happen. As it stands we will know shortly. 

[the_other_guy]

14 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wow. Definitely not criticizing. At all. 
 

was literally saying I was surprised that they were raising totals, there is a huge difference between healthy skepticism and criticizing. You clearly don’t know my posting style at all if you think that.

 

 

just to add there is nothing unflyable about any of the weather moving in.

 

If they don’t cancel the flight, just go through the deicing period and she’ll be fine. More annoying than anything else.

 

this isn’t a door slamming event like a blizzard or or a hurricane where things are gonna shut down

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That matters a bit too, of course, but it's not April yet, so I think more than half will still be around and 90% in the shade - and I happen to live on a shady property (across from Tommy's Pond if you know Metuchen).  

yes thats on Lake Ave just south of Rt. 27 - I will be just east of there near Eggert and McCoy......the shade will definitely keep the snow/ice around longer

[Monty]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

By me, I don't see us getting alot of zr here. I'm thinking maybe 2-3" of snow. Then maybe 1" of sleet.

That's be .7 liquid, is this expected to be that robust?

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Absolutely agreed on the fact that everyone is allowed to share their own opinion on what may happen. As it stands we will know shortly. 

yes but be prepared to be weenied - I set a record of 11 weenies the other day and so far I have been correct at least in the immediate metro.....

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

And I agree with that statement whole heartedly.. I get the sentiment of his post, but he’s directing his anger at the wrong guy. I was the one who was giving NWS kudos last storm while all were bashing. People are allowed to also share if they think it will be higher than or lower than forecast amounts, without it being criticism or bashing. 

Zero anger at all. By stating you thought they got it backwards (which is literally what you said), thats criticism. It may be correct, constructive or otherwise. My point is that even constructive criticism should come from a place of knowledge, or at least using valid points of subjectivity if objectiveness isnt possible. It only takes a few minutes to read through these threads to find shitty troll posts criticizing the nws and then asking “what does this model show” etc. Criticism coming from a place of knowledge should be allowed and encouraged. But if we cant even be bothered to find basic answers to questions that are easily found on numerous websites, im not sure we should allow questioning of the nws from that point of view. That was my point. I obviously know you arent a troll and the intent wasnt coming from a bad place, but this thread has gotten out of control between the trolls and whining and its frustrating when good posters add to the snowman19 bs lol 

[psv88]

32/18

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Zero anger at all. By stating you thought they got it backwards (which is literally what you said), thats criticism. It may be correct, constructive or otherwise. My point is that even constructive criticism should come from a place of knowledge, or at least using valid points of subjectivity if objectiveness isnt possible. It only takes a few minutes to read through these threads to find shitty troll posts criticizing the nws and then asking “what does this model show” etc. Criticism coming from a place of knowledge should be allowed and encouraged. But if we cant even be bothered to find basic answers to questions that are easily found on numerous websites, im not sure we should allow questioning of the nws from that point of view. That was my point. I obviously know you arent a troll and the intent wasnt coming from a bad place, but this thread has gotten out of control between the trolls and whining and its frustrating when good posters add to the snowman19 bs lol 

Fair enough, understand wheee you’re coming from. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

31 at MMU

[Monty]

Dewpoints 10-15F across NJ away from the water, and they wet bulbed down to 30F South of the AC Expressway as precip slid in. Bodes well for frozen .... Something. As Forky said, soundings are your friend. Dewpies

[MJO812]

34 here 

[allgame830]

That wall of snow is booking it across PA now! Btw gfs looks colder and snowier 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 33 here.

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That wall of snow is booking it across PA now! Btw gfs looks colder and snowier 

There’s no wall of snow in PA