Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Of course we have to wait and see if NAM wins. No other model is showing anything like what the 18z NAM is showing, but I think you have to lean towards it. 

I find it hard to believe it's going to go over to plain rain while precip is heavy. Still think it's mostly a sleetfest

[psv88]

As I said, never go against the NAMs thermals. I’m not a troll or a weenie, but just a straight shooter. This was a pretty easy call…1-2” city and coast 

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

As I said, never go against the NAMs thermals. I’m not a troll or a weenie, but just a straight shooter. This was a pretty easy call…1-2” city and coast 

Agree

Not sure why the NWS is so high.

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I find it hard to believe it's going to go over to plain rain while precip is heavy. Still think it's mostly a sleetfest

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we get just a half inch to inch of snow and then a good amount of sleet. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Not sure why the NWS is so high.

Was just about to post the same thing Ant. They are the pro mets, so maybe they see what we don't. IDK?

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

As I said, never go against the NAMs thermals. I’m not a troll or a weenie, but just a straight shooter. This was a pretty easy call…1-2” city and coast 

Looking to see how the precip shield evolves. We want it to race east quickly while we can take advantage of cold enough air and a solid wall. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Was just about to post the same thing Ant. They are the pro mets, so maybe they see what we don't. IDK?

They just don't react to last minute model runs. Many other models got colder. We have no consensus for those of us on the border

[Tatamy]

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Agree. Thursday we got 1" of snow and sleet here. We still have 1/2 of it on the ground. 

I am bare here.  I am figuring maybe a half inch of sleet with some ice to boot here.

[sussexcountyobs]

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I am bare here.  I am figuring maybe a half inch of sleet with some ice to boot here.

By me, I don't see us getting alot of zr here. I'm thinking maybe 2-3" of snow. Then maybe 1" of sleet.

[BoulderWX]

*not what I think - just to be clear*

my WWA went from 1-3 yesterday, to 2-5 this morning, to 3-6 this afternoon with some ice… seems like that’s the reverse order of how it should have gone 

 

[BoulderWX]

What is start time at EWR - moms flight just got pushed back and is worried about getting out later. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Since this is an obs thread also.

I'm curious to see what the temps are around the region? That will have an impact of whatever accumulates. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Since this is an obs thread also.

I'm curious to see what the temps are around the region? That will have an impact of whatever accumulates. 

34 here…

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Since this is an obs thread also.

I'm curious to see what the temps are around the region? That will have an impact of whatever accumulates. 

32/40 at MMU

[BoulderWX]

HRRR coming in dryer and with a basically 6 hour event which is fine with me if it’s going to be predominantly ice. 

[TJW014]

KDOX/KDIX radars filling in. Looks wetter than the NAM and HRRR are showing. 

Stop looking at maps. Now is the time for radar/obs

[sussexcountyobs]

At this point. I think we should stop looking at models, and do nowcasts, obs.

Currently 28.6/14.0

[uofmiami]

33 at both my stations. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Latest snowfall map from Upton.

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

That one kinda shafted my area; officially 8 inches; and 2-3 the one before. But 8 inches was still being in the game at least. 2/6/10 was the pits.

Really for the February 25/26 2010 only 8 inches. NYC had 21, I thought you're west of NYC?

I know the gradients were crazy for that storm. In Highland Mills in Orange County I got 35 inches and 30 miles to my east at the same latitude in Danbury Connecticut, I think they ended up with 8-10 inch's, because it rained much of the time.
 

That was just an odd storm all around, it rained in Vermont while they were getting heavy snow in Manhattan.

[Tatamy]

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

By me, I don't see us getting alot of zr here. I'm thinking maybe 2-3" of snow. Then maybe 1" of sleet.

Up by you I agree you have a chance.

[Tatamy]

Here’s the latest summation of reports off of mping

[Byrdhousebv]

32.5/18.5 with solid overcast and no precip in NE Monmouth Co.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem would be 2 or 3" of sleet for many

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Really for the February 25/26 2010 only 8 inches. NYC had 21, I thought you're west of NYC?

I know the gradients were crazy for that storm. In Highland Mills in Orange County I got 35 inches and 30 miles to my east at the same latitude in Danbury Connecticut, I think they ended up with 8-10 inch's, because it rained much of the time.
 

That was just an odd storm all around, it rained in Vermont while they were getting heavy snow in Manhattan.

a modern version of the Blizzard of 1888 (somewhat warmer obviously.) We had an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow.

 

[Stormlover74]

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually. 

The earlier forecast discussion likely explains their thinking:

As the low slides south of the area, its proximity to the coast will
determine how quickly the rate of precipitation decreases or any mix
or change over of precipitation types occurs. Models still have
uncertainty in the strength of a warm layer which would result in
changing p-types. Generally the thinking is that after the strongest
forcing pushes east after midnight, drying aloft will be able to
limit both the intensity of the precipitation and also possibly
limit ice nuclei in the column. This combined with the potential
warm nose moving over the area may result in a mix with sleet and
possibly freezing rain where the warm nose is strongest, more likely
near the coast, though possible even for the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern Connecticut. Any mix of p-types would limit snowfall
totals. A mix in with plain rain is possible mainly for the NYC
metro and Long Island as the precipitation intensity decreases if
surface temperatures warm to just above freezing, though much of the
bulk of the precipitation would have already occurred by this point,
mainly in the form of snow or a snow/sleet mix.

[Stormlover74]

That looks like the death band from last February only in sleet

[the_other_guy]

19 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NWS Upton and NWS Taunton doubling down on their totals, even increasing them to the north a bit. Not sure why, the opposite should be happening actually. 

Maybe this forum is talking itself into a death spiral echo chamber?

 

Just a thought