Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[jm1220]

HRRR is caving and getting warmer. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

That was really the problem.  That shouldn’t happen this time which is why even if it sleet there is going to be markedly more frozen precip than last event   

Yes, also the primary is not going in to buffalo,ny as everyone keeps saying. There is a pretty strong high keeping everything moving more ene then nne this time.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR is caving and getting warmer. 

Playing catch up again. Not surprising given this nowcast with the primary, parent low. This only supports even more WWA and stronger warm nose. There’s a possibility we may actually start as sleet tonight. And the surface high is gone, pushed well off the coast. Sleet fest incoming:

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Playing catch up again. Not surprising given this nowcast with the primary, parent low. This only supports even more WWA and stronger warm nose. There’s a possibility we may actually start as sleet tonight. And the surface high is gone, pushed well off the coast. Sleet fest incoming:

 

 

 

 

I still think Central Park can beat the half inch it had in the last storm of snow and sleet combined.

[winterwx21]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I still think Central Park can beat the half inch it had in the last storm of snow and sleet combined.

It definitely will. Even if this event ends up no snow and mostly sleet, it would be well over a half inch of sleet. 

[anthonymm]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Playing catch up again. Not surprising given this nowcast with the primary, parent low. This only supports even more WWA and stronger warm nose. There’s a possibility we may actually start as sleet tonight. And the surface high is gone, pushed well off the coast. Sleet fest incoming:

 

 

 

 

Totally agree. I'm seeing a carbon copy repeat of Thursday. C-1" and then gross sleet. HRRR caving incredibly fast to NAM.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Totally agree. I'm seeing a carbon copy repeat of Thursday. C-1" and then gross sleet. HRRR caving incredibly fast to NAM.

The HRRR on that run is just too late/weak with the precip shield more than anything.  It has the changeover still fairly late relative to the NAM

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR on that run is just too late/weak with the precip shield more than anything.  It has the changeover still fairly late relative to the NAM

At least we know if we start as sleet it's over. No mysteries about the totals.

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

At least we know if we start as sleet it's over. No mysteries about the totals.

Nam wins again 

 

I bet when its north at Monday 12z it won’t score a win haha

[sussexcountyobs]

Is it even conceivable that the pan handle of Florida and the Gulf of America coast could end up with more snow this winter than CPK? I can't see it. I think CPK will definitely get more when all is said and done.

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is it even conceivable that the pan handle of Florida and the Gulf of America coast could end up with more snow this winter than CPK? I can't see it. I think CPK will definitely get more when all is said and done.

I wouldnt be so sure. nyc has a unique capacity to underperform in recent years. 

[rcostell]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is it even conceivable that the pan handle of Florida and the Gulf of America coast could end up with more snow this winter than CPK? I can't see it. I think CPK will definitely get more when all is said and done.

I would not bet against it...    Gulf of America? HaHaHaHa- good one. 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is it even conceivable that the pan handle of Florida and the Gulf of America coast could end up with more snow this winter than CPK? I can't see it. I think CPK will definitely get more when all is said and done.

NYC will have like 9-10 by the end of tonight even if it’s mostly sleet.  They’ll probably still get close to 15-20 in the end 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC will have like 9-10 by the end of tonight even if it’s mostly sleet.  They’ll probably still get close to 15-20 in the end 

I agree. Maybe even more.

[Allsnow]

Nam even further north 

 

Snow is confined to SNE 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam wins again 

 

I bet when its north at Monday 12z it won’t score a win haha

Nam is basically mostly rain now lol. And much drier

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is basically mostly rain now lol. And much drier

tracking these "events" is starting to look like a waste of time. I'm retired and bored, and its too cold for fishing , so I follow along. But these last few events have been just ridiculous.

[Stormlover74]

Lol

[Allsnow]

Stronger primary 

 

going to be bust for many locations 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is basically mostly rain now lol. And much drier

Almost comical. 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol

That’s actually better north of 287. 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

tracking these "events" is starting to look like a waste of time. I'm retired and bored, and its too cold for fishing , so I follow along. But these last few events have been just ridiculous.

Today is perfect for ice fishing. No wind. Ice on my lake is 13" thick. Big lake ice party tomorrow here. Fishing, food, riding quads on the ice, bonfire out on ice. Should be good time. Hopefully it's not to windy.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

That’s actually better north of 287. 

Yeah that's actually an improvement. I think it was snow goose who mentioned that this resembled one of those storms in the early 2000s where the rains no line was literally right through Long Island sound.

[Allsnow]

Sleet line moving north 

[Krs4Lfe]

In February 2019 we had 2 systems in the middle month period like this. It was 1-2” of snow and sleet for both. It’s hard to deny the north and warmer trend that SWFEs take. It’s hard for them to score well here in NYC. Sometimes, winter shows you its cards early. It’s found almost every way for it to snow that much here and I expect that to continue for the rest of the season. It’s very easy to say “February 2015?” Or “this pattern reminds me of 2013-2014 winter”. Then at the end, we say “the pattern was there but it didn’t produce”. But underneath the surface I think we all know that we’ve been rooting for those things even though we know the opposite is way more likely… like having 7” in NYC by early February. We post maps saying “great pattern” “buckle up” even though we know the patterns are barely performing. We’ve heard this story many times since early 2022. Same story 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Stronger primary 

 

going to be bust for many locations 

Makes sense. No confluence to our north or anything to force an earlier transfer. SWFEs will always try to cut north unless something stands in the way. It’s why I never root them on for our latitude. 

[winterwx21]

Of course we have to wait and see if NAM wins. No other model is showing anything like what the 18z NAM is showing, but I think you have to lean towards it. 

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@SnowGoose69 @wdrag There is going to be a very strong, potent midlevel warm nose extending well north tonight and we are going to go over to sleet even up to Orange, Sussex and Putnam. In situations like this, the globals and even some mesos will completely miss it and bust horribly on snow totals. It also appears the primary is going to drive quite far north now. Go with the NAM suite/SREFs for situations like this. The RGEM and HRRR can even be way too cold aloft for these, see this past event we just had
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18z NAM is way north with the snow now.  HRRR is starting to move north also.  I wish you guys near the city a lot of luck with the snow.  I agree with the potential for major sleet impacts in much of the area.  This is very similar to what happened the other day.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

18z NAM is way north with the snow now.  HRRR is starting to move north also.  I wish you guys near the city a lot of luck with the snow.  I agree with the potential for major sleet impacts in much of the area.  This is very similar to what happened the other day.

Agree. Thursday we got 1" of snow and sleet here. We still have 1/2 of it on the ground. 

[MJO812]

Nam will bust. I think a few inches is possible.