Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Do tell me how it’s all lies lol…. 

It has 4 to 6 for ne nj and parts of central nj

[Metasequoia]

If Cranky... er Content Weatherguy says cut the snow forecast due to sleet, it's a real possibility. He's decent at forecasting winterstorms. I prefer snow, but sleet works.

[MJO812]

HRRR better for the area

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro gives Virginia the heavier snow mid- week here possibly some light snow probably imitating all the other events this winter with amounts in the Metro

He's taking about tonight 

[NEG NAO]

This storm event is already busting as the NWS prediction of a chance of snow this afternoon doesn't seem like it has a chance according to surface reports and the radar with not much on it

[sussexcountyobs]

Euro for tonight?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This storm event is already busting as the NWS prediction of a chance of snow this afternoon doesn't seem like it has a chance according to surface reports and the radar with not much on it

They only have a small chance in the grids from 22-00z which seems about right.  This will start between 00-0030z

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This storm event is already busting as the NWS prediction of a chance of snow this afternoon doesn't seem like it has a chance according to surface reports and the radar with not much on it

They said around 5. It's only 130

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

They only have a small chance in the grids from 22-00z which seems about right.  This will start between 00-0030z

then why did they start the Winter Weather Advisory at 3 PM ? Look at the radar.... its 1:30 already

[TJW014]

Up to 36/26. 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

then why did they start the Winter Weather Advisory at 3 PM ? Look at the radar.... its 1:30 already

They always do. Every time. Its how it works. Its not an indication of the snowfall actually starting or reaching advisory criteria.

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t understand the hysteria on this thread. My forecast hasn’t budged from national weather service or AccuWeather at all. I think you guys are getting too caught in slight shifts in the models.

 

Secondly, I just sold nuts outside of a supermarket in Hastings for two hours…. Thank you, Boy Scouts…. Nothing hysterical at the supermarket at all. Typical saturday

 

Thankfully, the general public is less hysterical than the people posting in this forum.

I think where you live matters.People in NJ hate snow with a passion. They quite literally won't even say the word, " well rain is better than that other stuff" You mean snow? " No, don't say it! Ahhhgg!!"

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

They always do. Every time. Its how it works. Its not an indication of the snowfall actually starting or reaching advisory criteria.

Ok - I didn't know they start the advisory several hours before the flakes start flying...

[wdrag]

There's a reason why threads are started with ensembles... meant to be a learning tool for those who are interested in some of the NWS processes-considerations.  If you go back to p1... WPC had the bigger snow ice threat nw of NYC, the GEFS/EPS seem to be much better limiting snowfall for NYC-LI by 7A Sunday (not a done deal yet). By 11 PM tonight we will know if this the snowier CMCE or the more conservative EPS/GEFS.  

While I don't count out the beefier 12z snow modeling for NNJ-LI (including the 12z op EC).. I'm counting on the attached SREF and SPC HREF lead time guidance cycles NOT being wrong.  The EC you may remember was also doing similarly heavy 12-18 hours in advance for ne NJ on Thursdays storm and it failed.  I am leaning NAM... as many of the prior posts have also accepted.

What I want everyone to see is what the SPC HREF had in advance, as well as the SREF...available to forecasters yesterday. 

My eyes water at all the snow these global models offer here... and dont' measure up.  Personally I like vertically closed lows to 500MB passing east or ne off the DE/s NJ coast toward the benchmark and enough cold air to support the snow here.  

I tried to get these up sequentially but not easy.  Just click on anything that is partially showing.  The conservative approach is there. 

Attached

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I think where you live matters.People in NJ hate snow with a passion. 

Really? Where I live in NJ people don't mind snow at all. It's normal. Helps the local economy in my town. And we usually get plenty of it.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

There's a reason why threads are started with ensembles... meant to be a learning tool for those who are interested in some of the NWS processes-considerations.  If you go back to p1... WPC had the bigger snow ice threat nw of NYC, the GEFS/EPS seem to be much better limiting snowfall for NYC-LI by 7A Sunday (not a done deal yet). By 11 PM tonight we will know if this the snowier CMCE or the more conservative EPS/GEFS.  

While I don't count out the beefier 12z snow modeling for NNJ-LI (including the 12z op EC).. I'm counting on the attached SREF and SPC HREF lead time guidance cycles NOT being wrong.  The EC you may remember was also doing similarly heavy 12-18 hours in advance for ne NJ on Thursdays storm and it failed.  I am leaning NAM... as many of the prior posts have also accepted.

What I want everyone to see is what the SPC HREF had in advance, as well as the SREF...available to forecasters yesterday. 

My eyes water at all the snow these global models offer here... and dont' measure up.  Personally I like vertically closed lows to 500MB passing east or ne off the DE/s NJ coast toward the benchmark and enough cold air to support the snow here.  

Attached

Walt - looking at the radar and surface reports right now - is this event going as planned ?

[psv88]

36/18. Warm

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Ok - I didn't know they start the advisory several hours before the flakes start flying...

The timing of the onset of events isn’t very precise. The start of warnings, watches and advisories consider the uncertainty related to timing.

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

If Cranky... er Content Weatherguy says cut the snow forecast due to sleet, it's a real possibility. He's decent at forecasting winterstorms. I prefer snow, but sleet works.

The primary/parent low is already well north and projected to keep driving north, as Contentwxguy pointed out, the new SREFS are anemic at best for snow and have a rapid transition to sleet tonight even NW of NYC. The NAM is absolutely believable and it does extremely well with the thermals for warm nose events. The globals and even the HRRR and RGEM completely busted terribly on the event we just had Thursday, the NAM and SREFS schooled them. They kept insisting on 2-3 inches of snow in NYC and the city ended up getting 0.5 before the sleet ping fest started. Similar setup tonight, if not a stronger warm nose. We have an extremely strong midlevel WAA/warm nose event coming up and the midlevel low tracks suck for snow here. I would not be surprised at all if this is a quick 1-2 inch hit of snow before we go into a ping fest, even up where I am in Rockland. IMO tonight will be remembered for sleet, not snow

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Only positive seen is no northern kicker just a high. The coastal would have to really take over early to stop the warm surge. Im still confident for snow here though. 2-4 inches of snocone on the ground imo.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The primary/parent low is already well north and projected to keep driving north, as Contentwxguy pointed out, the new SREFS are anemic at best for snow and have a rapid transition to sleet tonight even NW of NYC. The NAM is absolutely believable and it does extremely well with the thermals for warm nose events. The globals and even the HRRR and RGEM completely busted terribly on the event we just had Thursday, the NAM and SREFS schooled them. They kept insisting on 2-3 inches of snow in NYC and the city ended up getting 0.5 before the sleet ping fest started. Similar setup tonight, if not a stronger warm nose. We have an extremely strong midlevel WAA/warm nose event coming up and the midlevel low tracks suck for snow here. I would not be surprised at all if this is a quick 1-2 inch hit of snow before we go into a ping fest, even up where I am in Rockland. IMO tonight will be remembered for sleet, not snow

I post the SREF for fun but are you really using them for a forecast ?

[BoulderWX]

Time to stop watching the models… a sloppy storm on its way, with potentially significant impact for those who stay frozen throughout (ice).

get your favorite adult beverages or herbals and watch it unfold. 

[winterwarlock]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It has 4 to 6 for ne nj and parts of central nj

It counts sleet as snow..good luck

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I post the SREF for fun but are you really using them for a forecast ?

The SREFS are basically the ensembles for the NAM suite. They absolutely nailed the last event along with the operational NAMs. The global models and even the RGEM and HRRR were complete disasters. They were insisting on NYC getting, 2, 3, even 4+ inches of snow run after run, were way too cold aloft and completely busted the warm nose. It was embarrassing how bad the NAM beat them. Same setup tonight 

[wdrag]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Walt - looking at the radar and surface reports right now - is this event going as planned ?

Looking back at p1 starter...  yes, as it was written below.  I didnt get specific on snow amounts, just pointing out the overall impact and concerns.  

It takes time (for me) to think these starter threads out (1/2 -1.5 hours), so that they don't overhype, and try to keep a general perspective on the upcoming reality and concerns but also point what I think are modeled expectations, that do not get communicated very well beyond the WWA process in the NWS-WPC, which OVERALL tends to be limited to 60-72 hours. Our HWO's used to permit raising flags well in advance (beyond D3) but no more (to my knowledge).  

 

Posted Monday at 07:47 AM

This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance.  

QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence.

It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. 

 

[allgame830]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The SREFS are basically the ensembles for the NAM suite. They absolutely nailed the last event along with the operational NAMs. The global models and even the RGEM and HRRR were completely disasters. They were insisting on NYC getting, 2, 3, even 4+ inches of snow run after run were way too cold aloft and completely busted the warm nose. It was embarrassing how bad the NAM beat them. Same setup tonight 

Ok we’ll see… are you almost at your daily post limit at this point just asking for everyone’s sake 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The SREFS are basically the ensembles for the NAM suite. They absolutely nailed the last event along with the operational NAMs. The global models and even the RGEM and HRRR were complete disasters. They were insisting on NYC getting, 2, 3, even 4+ inches of snow run after run were way too cold aloft and completely busted the warm nose. It was embarrassing how bad the NAM beat them. Same setup tonight 

Lets not forget the precip shield that wasnt. That really was the deathnail. If it had came in heavy those amounts verify.

[coastalplainsnowman]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The primary/parent low is already well north and projected to keep driving north, as Contentwxguy pointed out, the new SREFS are anemic at best for snow and have a rapid transition to sleet tonight even NW of NYC. The NAM is absolutely believable and it does extremely well with the thermals for warm nose events. The globals and even the HRRR and RGEM completely busted terribly on the event we just had Thursday, the NAM and SREFS schooled them. They kept insisting on 2-3 inches of snow in NYC and the city ended up getting 0.5 before the sleet ping fest started. Similar setup tonight, if not a stronger warm nose. We have an extremely strong midlevel WAA/warm nose event coming up and the midlevel low tracks suck for snow here. I would not be surprised at all if this is a quick 1-2 inch hit of snow before we go into a ping fest, even up where I am in Rockland. IMO tonight will be remembered for sleet, not snow

You guys familiar with Metallica's 'Enter Sandman', which Mariano Rivera used to enter to, because he put the game to sleep?

Well we have 'Enter Snowman', who seems to do the same for snowstorms.  I'm working on lyrics.

 

[tomcatct]

33 and clouding up here in Trumbull...but it doesn't really feel like snow out there...not scientific but just how it seemed..

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Lets not forget the precip shield that wasnt. That really was the deathnail. If it had came in heavy those amounts verify.

That was really the problem.  That shouldn’t happen this time which is why even if it sleet there is going to be markedly more frozen precip than last event