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Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Ukie hasn’t backed down on a significant event on Long Island. Rgem and HRRR bullish as well. Could be high impact if correct, but I’m doubtful 

Sleet pounded into a few inches of snow can be pretty high impact. Tough as anything to shovel and has staying power. I’m still thinking a sloppy inch or two on the south shore where I’ll be but we’ll see. 

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And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the po

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. It assigns precipitation type based on the top of the hour, so some mixed precipitation can be included, which can overstate snowfall estimates. Usually, I assume one category lower when there is mixed precipitation events such as what is likely this time around.

The site is freely available at: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

Awesome, thanks!

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snowman19

snowman19

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@SnowGoose69 @wdrag There is going to be a very strong, potent midlevel warm nose extending well north tonight and we are going to go over to sleet even up to Orange, Sussex and Putnam. In situations like this, the globals and even some mesos will completely miss it and bust horribly on snow totals. It also appears the primary is going to drive quite far north now. Go with the NAM suite/SREFs for situations like this. The RGEM and HRRR can even be way too cold aloft for these, see this past event we just had
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet pounded into a few inches of snow can be pretty high impact. Tough as anything to shovel and has staying power. I’m still thinking a sloppy inch or two on the south shore where I’ll be but we’ll see. 

let's see if we can relive some 1993-94 memories with a hard crust of ice that we'll need an axe to chop through ha

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In an event like this with massive mid level WAA I never really look at thickness.  I typically only do it for all snow type events where its marginal temps and then I use 1000-850 which until recent years practically no online websites even had anyway, you basically needed to be an NWS employee and have AWIPS til about 10-15 years ago to view it.  It usually works way better in a marginal temp event than 1000-500.  I think in the January 2008 storm the 1000-850 argued the area would see no snow at all.  I recall a MET posting that on the old forum

Thanks, this is great insight.  Is this 1000-850 readily available?  And what's it telling you for, say, my house in Metuchen - or at least in general for the 95 corridor/NYC?  

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

If its a big storm I can understand; I talked to a woman once, back in the day, who said her husband died shoveling snow in one of the big early 60s events, and she had to keep him in the house for days before the body could be removed. I think it's stories like this, that the older ones among us remember, and maybe some of the millenials and Gen Z's remember the big storms of their childhood, and so panic ensues. Fact is nothing is going to be so bad you won't be able to shop by tomorrow evening as far as I can see. 

Yeah i saw a guy keel over dead using a snowblower back in the superstorm of ‘93.  Tried to render assistance, myself and a lifeguard friend.  He had a massive coronary and there was nothing to be done - turns out he had a history. His wife came outside screaming in her bathrobe.  Grim scene.  Took the ambulance 20 minutes to get there with all the snow, and it stayed there for 30 minutes.  I called the hospital to see if he made it- before telling me, the nurse asked if I was the one giving assistance, and then she told me figured I should know.  It was like damn shame.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I did forget. 

It's snowed on the night before the superbowl in the semirecent past..... in 2015-16 we had a nice snow event just before the super bowl (4-6 inches), this was the second largest storm after the 30" megasnowstorm.  We had two 4-6 inch events that season in addition to the 30+ inch blockbuster. The first one dropped a crane in Manhattan tragically killing someone and the second one happened on the day before the superbowl.

 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Don't know where you live, but it was a normal weekend crowd. Same people I see every weekend at Shoprite. Unless it's a REALLY big snowstorm forecast, around here no one really sweats a forecast of 6". 

It’s the Thornwood NY ShopRite. I am in Hawthorne NY. @cleetussnowknows where it is lol

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Keep forgetting to post this for giggles...

Last, but not least, my guess for my house in Metuchen is 1.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (~3" of snow equivalent in that sleet) for 2.5" snow/sleet on the ground, then 0.1" of freezing rain on top. We'll see...

you think there will be anything left on the ground before the next possible event mid-week ?

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted

I don’t understand the hysteria on this thread. My forecast hasn’t budged from national weather service or AccuWeather at all. I think you guys are getting too caught in slight shifts in the models.

 

Secondly, I just sold nuts outside of a supermarket in Hastings for two hours…. Thank you, Boy Scouts…. Nothing hysterical at the supermarket at all. Typical saturday

 

Thankfully, the general public is less hysterical than the people posting in this forum.

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