Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[MJO812]

Ukie

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

Agreed. I’m around MMU and beginning to think this is mainly a sleet storm, and potentially a significant one. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Well looking at all the models for the NYC metro area. A reasonable forecast is between .1"-7"

So much for the latest technology?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

Looks like close to half an inch liquid as mostly sleet for some areas so that would be almost 2"

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

People rush to the supermarkets all the time before a snowevent ( no clue why ) . The media hypes these events.

If its a big storm I can understand; I talked to a woman once, back in the day, who said her husband died shoveling snow in one of the big early 60s events, and she had to keep him in the house for days before the body could be removed. I think it's stories like this, that the older ones among us remember, and maybe some of the millenials and Gen Z's remember the big storms of their childhood, and so panic ensues. Fact is nothing is going to be so bad you won't be able to shop by tomorrow evening as far as I can see. 

[MJO812]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

If its a big storm I can understand; I talked to a woman once, back in the day, who said her husband died shoveling snow in one of the big early 60s events, and she had to keep him in the house for days before the body could be removed. I think it's stories like this, that the older ones among us remember, and maybe some of the millenials and Gen Z's remember the big storms of their childhood, and so panic ensues. Fact is nothing is going to be so bad you won't be able to shop by tomorrow evening as far as I can see. 

I remember going to school in the Blizzard of 1996

[RU848789]

Prety sure nobody in Philly wants the 12Z NAM to be right - almost all ZR...

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well looking at all the models for the NYC metro area. A reasonable forecast is between .1"-7"

So much for the latest technology?

Reasonable is 2-4 with 1-2 snow and then sleet. 

[Metasequoia]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

What about that 2017 thunder sleet storm (maybe February 9th)? The metro must have had at least a few inches of sleet.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

If its a big storm I can understand; I talked to a woman once, back in the day, who said her husband died shoveling snow in one of the big early 60s events, and she had to keep him in the house for days before the body could be removed. I think it's stories like this, that the older ones among us remember, and maybe some of the millenials and Gen Z's remember the big storms of their childhood, and so panic ensues. Fact is nothing is going to be so bad you won't be able to shop by tomorrow evening as far as I can see. 

Doesn't matter. People know people are going to go to the store when snow is in the forecast so they go to the store too afraid that everything will be gone if they wait.  

[weatherpruf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I remember going to school in the Blizzard of 1996

That was the one time I felt the need to hit the supermarket, the old pathmark chain, and it was backed up the morning before. I couldn't believe we were really going to get that much snow; I was in my mid 30's and had not seen a storm of that magnitude; the 78 storm was a mere 18 inches, and closed schools for the week. I was a freshman, and would not see a multiple closure until the arch 93 super sleet storm, where I missed 3 days because the stuff was like concrete. As a teacher I enjoyed it even more.....I taught in Elizabeth and you could not find parking because the side streets were walls of ice.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Doesn't matter. People know people are going to go to the store when snow is in the forecast so they go to the store too afraid that everything will be gone if they wait.  

Gotta get the bread and milk! Gotta get the bread and milk! There is no way we are going to survive till tomorrow afternoon without a weeks worth of bread and milk!

[RU848789]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

Question if you don't mind: how much do you use the 1000-500 mbar thickness 540 line "rule of thumb" for divining the snow/rain (or mix) line?  I think every model has the 540 line along/N of 84 when it's precipitating, even the snowy HRRR.  

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

What about that 2017 thunder sleet storm (maybe February 9th)? The metro must have had at least few inches of sleet.

We had a difficult time getting around in that storm as it was daytime; I had to drive out to Hunterdon Co to see my ailing sister, and it was sleet all the way to PA.

[weathermedic]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Doesn't matter. People know people are going to go to the store when snow is in the forecast so they go to the store too afraid that everything will be gone if they wait.  

Plus don’t forget people are buying food for the Super Bowl watch parties 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Plus don’t forget people are buying food for the Super Bowl watch parties 

That's why I'm waiting to go tomorrow. It'll be fine then if I survive shoveling

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's why I'm waiting to go tomorrow. It'll be fine then if I survive shoveling

I get your weather subscriptions if you dont. Thx 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The largest snow I've seen in Orange County was the February 2010 storm with 35 inches in a 24 hour period. I was picking up stuff at Walmart and Home Depot less than 24 hours after it ended. 
 

Using that as a worst case scenario, we really can't survive without food in our homes for 24 hours? It always baffles me when I see any kind of panic buying which you don't see nearly as much up here, but for the transplants you still do.

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Plus don’t forget people are buying food for the Super Bowl watch parties 

I can't imagine how bad it is at the store this afternoon with everyone shopping before the storm and Super Bowl. I'm so glad I decided to go yesterday instead. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Plus don’t forget people are buying food for the Super Bowl watch parties 

I did forget. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The largest snow I've seen in Orange County was the February 2010 storm with 35 inches in a 24 hour period. I was picking up stuff at Walmart and Home Depot less than 24 hours after it ended. 
 

Using that as a worst case scenario, we really can't survive without food in our homes for 24 hours? It always baffles me when I see any kind of panic buying which you don't see nearly as much up here, but for the transplants you still do.

96 was the worst here, the closest supermarket closed sunday afternoon and reopened tuesday afternoon. Not exactly life threatening.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The largest snow I've seen in Orange County was the February 2010 storm with 35 inches in a 24 hour period. I was picking up stuff at Walmart and Home Depot less than 24 hours after it ended. 
 

Using that as a worst case scenario, we really can't survive without food in our homes for 24 hours? It always baffles me when I see any kind of panic buying which you don't see nearly as much up here, but for the transplants you still do.

Events like Sandy, the Snotober, and Ida were far worse due to power outages; you can't stock up on food if your fridge is down. 

[sussexcountyobs]

I went to Shoprite in Franklin on Rt 23 this morning like usual. It was normal. No big rush of storm shoppers.

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Don - I assume the HREF is showing just pure snow correct (like Pivotal does)?  Also, is this available free somewhere?  TIA.  

No. It assigns precipitation type based on the top of the hour, so some mixed precipitation can be included, which can overstate snowfall estimates. Usually, I assume one category lower when there is mixed precipitation events such as what is likely this time around.

The site is freely available at: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The largest snow I've seen in Orange County was the February 2010 storm with 35 inches in a 24 hour period. I was picking up stuff at Walmart and Home Depot less than 24 hours after it ended. 
 

Using that as a worst case scenario, we really can't survive without food in our homes for 24 hours? It always baffles me when I see any kind of panic buying which you don't see nearly as much up here, but for the transplants you still do.

That one kinda shafted my area; officially 8 inches; and 2-3 the one before. But 8 inches was still being in the game at least. 2/6/10 was the pits.

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Question if you don't mind: how much do you use the 1000-500 mbar thickness 540 line "rule of thumb" for divining the snow/rain (or mix) line?  I think every model has the 540 line along/N of 84 when it's precipitating, even the snowy HRRR.  

In an event like this with massive mid level WAA I never really look at thickness.  I typically only do it for all snow type events where its marginal temps and then I use 1000-850 which until recent years practically no online websites even had anyway, you basically needed to be an NWS employee and have AWIPS til about 10-15 years ago to view it.  It usually works way better in a marginal temp event than 1000-500.  I think in the January 2008 storm the 1000-850 argued the area would see no snow at all.  I recall a MET posting that on the old forum

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I went to Shoprite in Franklin on Rt 23 this morning like usual. It was normal. No big rush of storm shoppers.

I work at a ShopRite here in my town and I worked yesterday and definitely saw a big uptick in customer traffic. Today I am off but I went to CVS in same shopping center as the ShopRite and the parking lot was extremely jammed! 

[psv88]

Open house is packed. People not dissuaded. Already offers well over ask

[psv88]

Ukie hasn’t backed down on a significant event on Long Island. Rgem and HRRR bullish as well. Could be high impact if correct, but I’m doubtful 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

I work at a ShopRite here in my town and I worked yesterday and definitely saw a big uptick in customer traffic. Today I am off but I went to CVS in same shopping center as the ShopRite and the parking lot was extremely jammed! 

Don't know where you live, but it was a normal weekend crowd. Same people I see every weekend at Shoprite. Unless it's a REALLY big snowstorm forecast, around here no one really sweats a forecast of 6".