Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[RU848789]

Found this to be interesting...hadn't noticed the snow depth before - assuming that is sleet where no "snowfall" is shown on the regular map, since Pivotal doesn't show sleet, per se.

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nemo was my second favorite storm of all time only second to the Blizzard of '96 which gave my town at that time, 27 inches Norwalk Connecticut. 

Nemo gave my talent of Norwalk 22 inches. It was an amazing storm with multiple components the first one was heavy wet snow and the rain snow line made it all the way to the Costa Connecticut then crashed back. Then lighter snows. Got to an actual dry slot at 10 inches. Then The heavy band moved in and in the end ended up with 22.

 

We were talking about Nemo and today is the anniversary!  It's also the anniversary of the famous 1994 thundersnow 4"/hr for 2 hours snowstorm!

 

[donsutherland1]

The 12z HREF is little changed from 0z.

[North and West]

I just skipped ahead from Post 400 to Post 633, so I’ll ask the question everyone wants to know: What’s going to happen at MMU?




.

[EastonSN+]

12z CMC basically the same. A smidge north but increased CPK from 1.7 to 1.9 via Kutchera.

 

[EastonSN+]

NYC could have some vast difference between Staten Island and Bronx. 

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

12z CMC basically the same. A smidge north but increased CPK from 1.7 to 1.9 via Kutchera.

 

HPN on Kuchie?

[BoulderWX]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

I just skipped ahead from Post 400 to Post 633, so I’ll ask the question everyone wants to know: What’s going to happen at MMU?




.

1-3” of snow and then sleet is my call for MMU which is where I am as well 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Local met says 1-3” on LI with possibly more on north shore and most will be gone by morning

weather channel more bullish

model consensus out the window

who the hell knows 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

HPN on Kuchie?

4.9.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Local met says 1-3” on LI with possibly more on north shore and most will be gone by morning

weather channel more bullish

model consensus out the window

who the hell knows 

Always go with the models showing the sneaky warm layers. Nam and hrdps 

LI should do much better than anyone sw of nyc

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Always go with the models showing the sneaky warm layers. Nam and hrdps 

LI should do much better than anyone sw of nyc

That is actually a pretty good map there. More in line with the href. 

[kat5hurricane]

Supermarket was absolutely packed this morning much more than usual. Everybody hunkering down for the 1-3 inch slopfest smh.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Supermarket was absolutely packed this morning much more than usual. Everybody hunkering down for the 1-3 inch slopfest smh.

Between Super Bowl and snow Lidl was so wild before. 

[North and West]

1-3” of snow and then sleet is my call for MMU which is where I am as well 

.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Always go with the models showing the sneaky warm layers. Nam and hrdps 

LI should do much better than anyone sw of nyc

4.1 at JFK seems a trifle high

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Between Super Bowl and snow Lidl was so wild before. 

and dont forget the Puppy Bowl

[North and West]

and dont forget the Puppy Bowl

my guy is resting up for it


.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Between Super Bowl and snow Lidl was so wild before. 

Yeah I don’t follow football and was blindsided by that and the snow threat. And they didn’t even have what I came for. Son is a Kendrick fan but I have only vaguely heard of him. If they recorded after 1985, I’m clueless. 

[North and West]

Yeah I don’t follow football and was blindsided by that and the snow threat. And they didn’t even have what I came for. Son is a Kendrick fan but I have only vaguely heard of him. If they recorded after 1985, I’m clueless. 

I saw the Grammies were on last weekend and I swear I felt like my father when he only heard of Blink-182 this past summer when I heard the winners. They could have told me that the best new album was by the group Milwaukee M12 Cordless Drill and I would have been like, “huh, guess that’s what the kids are listening to nowadays.”


.

[RU848789]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z HREF is little changed from 0z.

Don - I assume the HREF is showing just pure snow correct (like Pivotal does)?  Also, is this available free somewhere?  TIA.  

[MANDA]

Final call for my location 2-4.  The 4 would be a gift.  I think 2 to 3 will be closer to reality.

[ILoveWinter]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Always go with the models showing the sneaky warm layers. Nam and hrdps 

LI should do much better than anyone sw of nyc

Yes tho the NAM showed basically nil for CPK, this is at least 3 which is within Uptons range. 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That is actually a pretty good map there. More in line with the href. 

Href gives me 2 to 4 but it's too bold

[RU848789]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Yes tho the NAM showed basically nil for CPK, this is at least 3 which is within Uptons range. 

People need to stop with the "nil" comments from the NAM - it showed 5-6" of snow as sleet, i.e., about 2" of sleet.  That's pretty damn impactful if not pretty.  

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well I stopped in the supermarket for some mop and glo, which seems to be scarce in this age of supply chain issues, and was surprised the lot was full....then I realized people think its gonna snow. Most of the eggs were gone ( due to the bird flu pandemic ) and a lot of the milk was gone, including the kind I needed. God help us if they ever call for an actual bona fide snow event here in CNJ. 

I usually go to the supermarket on Saturday, but I moved it up to yesterday because I didn't want to deal with the insane crowds today as everyone shops in a panic before the winter storm. LOL. Yesterday it was nice and quiet at ShopRite. 

Anyway it's crazy that just hours before this storm we have the HRRR showing a big thump of snow for our area while the NAM is almost no snow with a lot of sleet. I think Don Sutherland has done a good job explaining that a middle ground scenario is most likely, but I'm still nervous that the NAM could be right about the lack of a thump and the warm layer. It scored the big victory on the last event. Man it would be nice for the HRRR to finally be right after having a rough winter, but I doubt that will happen. Only a slight chance. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Href gives me 2 to 4 but it's too bold

Not sure where you're located, however I've lived through so many of these in my lifetime that although they do tend to disappoint more often than not, unless you're a fan of sleet, we do get some that actually pan out as forecasted or even better. So while it's good to keep caution and maybe favor the lower end of the forecast one cannot discount completely the upper end of the forecast.

[SnowGoose69]

This is gonna be the worst sleet event for the metro since maybe 2/2007

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure where you're located, however I've lived through so many of these in my lifetime that although they do tend to disappoint more often than not, unless you're a fan of sleet, we do get some that actually pan out as forecasted or even better. So while it's good to keep caution and maybe favor the lower end of the forecast one cannot discount completely the upper end of the forecast.

Sw of nyc. Our area always mixes more quickly than modeled in these setups. Usually the mix line gets up to about 78 and stalls a bit but I'm south of there by a couple miles

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

People need to stop with the "nil" comments from the NAM - it showed 5-6" of snow as sleet, i.e., about 2" of sleet.  That's pretty damn impactful if not pretty.  

I'll gladly take 2" of sleet over a rainstorm, that's for sure. We get to shovel and see frozen precip on the ground for awhile.