Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

March 2017 was worse...though some areas did ok. Nemo gave us 6 inches out here in the city got 11, we lost a lot to rain and sleet at the start IIRC.

Yep, Nemo was half rain and half snow here, at least it was snow in the second half of the storm, which is much better than getting snow only in the first half of the storm.

 

[Metasequoia]

Another nice RGEM run for the metro. Looks to be frozen throughout. 

[MJO812]

Rgem is still showing a nice thump before a sleetfest

[MJO812]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Another nice RGEM run for the metro. Looks to be frozen throughout. 

Snow to sleet

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, Nemo was half rain and half snow here, at least it was snow in the second half of the storm, which is much better than getting snow only in the first half of the storm.

 

Nemo was my second favorite storm of all time only second to the Blizzard of '96 which gave my town at that time, 27 inches Norwalk Connecticut. 

Nemo gave my talent of Norwalk 22 inches. It was an amazing storm with multiple components the first one was heavy wet snow and the rain snow line made it all the way to the Costa Connecticut then crashed back. Then lighter snows. Got to an actual dry slot at 10 inches. Then The heavy band moved in and in the end ended up with 22.

 

[the_other_guy]

Who is this ass that invaded this forum and why is he still here?

[MJO812]

Icon with a big thump. Increased from 6z. Few inches.

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

So far given the least snowy nams and the more snowy Canadians, the href is really in the middle. I think Don's assessment is the most logical. 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

The storm is over? Damn. I missed the whole thing. I knew I should have woken up before 8am this morning. 

agreed but the truth is- "It ain't over till its over" - nowcasting event for sure starting now........

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon with a big thump. Increased from 6z. Few inches.

 

 

 

 

The difference between the more snowy models and the nams is not the rain snow line or the changeover line, but the actual thump. The nams do not have the initial thump and are dry before the changeover. 

Was there a 6z euro?

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Who is this ass that invaded this forum and why is he still here?

Agreed. I thought he was moving to “Cutter City” with the other “naysers”.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon with a big thump. Increased from 6z. Few inches.

 

 

 

 

so which model do you believe ? They all have differences of opinions = shows not to trust any of them as of now IMO.....watch the radar trends...observe surface reports OBS and upper level OBS

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Don are you keeping track of how the models are actually performing so far to our south and west ?

It's early. The warm air advection light snow falling in the Washington, DC area was not picked up on the guidance. What happens later in the day in Allentown and Philadelphia could provide good insight into how things are evolving. If moderate snow develops in both cities, it will be a clue that the 12z NAM won't verify. If light generally non-accumulating snow develops there, the NAM will be on track.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

so which model do you believe ? They all have differences of opinions = shows not to trust any of them as of now IMO.....watch the radar trends...observe surface reports OBS and upper level OBS

I would like to go with the consensus and believe that the Nam is on its own and wrong but we have seen this movie before 

[Metasequoia]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Who is this ass that invaded this forum and why is he still here?

Not who, but what.  It's a Troll bot...

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Who is this ass that invaded this forum and why is he still here?

I resemble that remark....

[donsutherland1]

The 12z RGEM largely held its ground. It actually increased amounts in and around the City.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

I think they're often too aggressive

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, cannoliman42 said:

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

6" of snow or 6" of snow as sleet, i.e., about 2" of sleet - not nothing or even close to it - still very impactful, but not as pretty.  Here's the 12Z NAM for EWR - mostly sleet topped off with 0.1" of ZR.  Ugly.  

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KEWR/prec.png

[BoulderWX]

1-4 been my call for most of the subforum all week - feeling good about it. Obviously once you get further north you’ll see the 4-7” numbers. 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The difference between the more snowy models and the nams is not the rain snow line or the changeover line, but the actual thump. The nams do not have the initial thump and are dry before the changeover. 

Was there a 6z euro?

Yes. It also shows a good thump before sleet.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes. It also shows a good thump before sleet.

 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes. It also shows a good thump before sleet.

hopefully the "thump" area this event contains significant precip.........

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

hopefully the "thump" area this event contains significant precip.........

Yep and now the gfs just came in slightly colder. Snow to sleet for the NYC area.

[qg_omega]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z RGEM largely held its ground. It actually increased amounts in and around the City.

Regggggggggie

[EastonSN+]

So far the RGEM, HRRR and GFS are in that 3 to 5 for Central Park and inline with NWS.

[MJO812]

14z HRRR is snow to some sleet for the metro area.

[jysamuel]

0.1-36" is my final call

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and now the gfs just came in slightly colder. Snow to sleet for the NYC area.

are you trying to use the GFS as a mesoscale model so close to the event? and comparing it to the other mesoscales?