Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and then there was January 2015.....

Weren’t there some models showing 30+ inches for the City? 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I got 3 inches from the wave last month .

NWS predictions are for 3-4 so if we get like 3.5 it will be our biggest of the season.

They even have JFK projected for 3.4 which is impressive.

 

[EastonSN+]

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Weren’t there some models showing 30+ inches for the City? 

Yes, Euro and NAM, up to like 35-45 inches of snow lol

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Still a few inches on HRRR. It's mostly a snow event with some sleet at the end. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, Euro and NAM, up to like 35-45 inches of snow lol

shows how useless they are more then a few days out

[EastonSN+]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z HREF:

Thanks Don this is the national weather service and weather channel snow forecast almost identically. Suspect if this cuts back we'll see the aforementioned services cut back as well

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, Euro and NAM, up to like 35-45 inches of snow lol

NWS snowmap had 24-36 inches for the NYC area the day before the storm  . At least we made up for it the year after with 31 inches here.

The AFD for the big bust stated " Dangerous historic crippling Blizzard is on the way "

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

shows how useless they are more then a few days out

That was 1 day out

[anthonymm]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats AnthonyMM ( Noreaster 19 ) ?

Well not to brag but it is looking like I was right all along huh? Today's misses north and midweek misses south. There's a reason I call for low snow, we are in an epically unlucky low snow cycle. Cant deny it.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

That was 1 day out

 

Just now, MJO812 said:

That was 1 day out

I didn't want to be that pessimistic

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Still a few inches on HRRR. It's mostly a snow event with some sleet at the end. 

Honestly I think one to four is the way to go. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Very strange just watched The weather channel and they doubled down on New York City getting 5 inches.

They must be going off to href that Don posted. Not surprised that they are not deviating from the national weather service though. 

They have 80% of Long Island 6 Plus.

As of now, I'm still thinking 2"-4" for NYC and its nearby suburbs and 4"-8" north and west of there. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

The snow should fall moderately to heavily before the changeover takes place in the City. By that time, most of the accumulation will have occurred. The 12z NAM holds onto a fairly robust primary storm longer than any other piece of guidance producing its low snow scenario for NYC (2/9 6z). The RGEM has a much weaker primary system. The ECMWF and GFS have already transitioned to the secondary system. The 0z HREF and 12z HRRR are more aggressive with the snowfall. They probably illustrate a plausible but lower probability outcome with the support of more than one model. The NAM is on its own.

[anthonymm]

12 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Some lucky person in the bronx: 2"

Central park and Laguardia: around 0.7"

JFK: 0.4".

If im super wrong chew me out Sunday night.

 

Looking at the recent nam this might be a bust forecast. I can see everyone south of bronx getting a trace to 0.1".

[ILoveWinter]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Well not to brag but it is looking like I was right all along huh? Today's misses north and midweek misses south. There's a reason I call for low snow, we are in an epically unlucky low snow cycle. Cant deny it.

Celebrating “victory” and the event is starting later this evening? You called for 0.7 at Central Park right? I don’t even think the NAM has it that low.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Looking at the recent nam this might be a bust forecast. I can see everyone south of bronx getting a trace to 0.1".

It'll be more than a trace but it could be easily sleet within an hour or so and rain an hour or so after that south of the LIE if something like the NAM happens. Late/shredded precip means warm air will easily overtake much of the area. We need the lift and heavy rates to hold it back.

[anthonymm]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Celebrating “victory” and the event is starting later this evening? You called for 0.7 at Central Park right? I don’t even think the NAM has it that low.

That lines up nicely with the new NAM. Actually thats a bit too aggressive I think around 0.3" would be closer. We'll see later on today but I think deep down you know the naysers are correct. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NWS snowmap had 24-36 inches for the NYC area the day before the storm  . At least we made up for it the year after with 31 inches here.

The AFD for the big bust stated " Dangerous historic crippling Blizzard is on the way "

Having January 2016 the following winter is the reason that January 2015 isnt remembered like March 2001 is.

That and we did get 10 inches of snow from it and February-March 2015 was truly historic cold and snowy!!

[Allsnow]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats Long Island

@jm1220 wins again 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, anthonymm said:

That lines up nicely with the new NAM. Actually thats a bit too aggressive I think around 0.3" would be closer. We'll see later on today but I think deep down you know the naysers are correct. 

No I think 2-4 is a good call for CPK

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of now, I'm still thinking 2"-4" for NYC and its nearby suburbs and 4"-8" north and west of there. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

The snow should fall moderately to heavily before the changeover takes place in the City. By that time, most of the accumulation will have occurred. The 12z NAM holds onto a fairly robust primary storm longer than any other piece of guidance producing its low snow scenario for NYC (2/9 6z). The RGEM has a much weaker primary system. The ECMWF and GFS have already transitioned to the secondary system. The 0z HREF and 12z HRRR are more aggressive with the snowfall. They probably illustrate a plausible but lower probability outcome with the support of more than one model. The NAM is on its own.

Don are you keeping track of how the models are actually performing so far to our south and west ?

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Having January 2016 the following winter is the reason that January 2015 isnt remembered like March 2001 is.

That and we did get 10 inches of snow from it and February-March 2015 was truly historic cold and snowy!!

I got 7 inches in Jan 2015; in March 2001 I had a glaze of sleet over two days.....

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@jm1220 wins again 

This is not going to happen. No way at all. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People rush to the supermarkets all the time before a snowevent ( no clue why ) . The media hypes these events.

But of course....

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NWS snowmap had 24-36 inches for the NYC area the day before the storm  . At least we made up for it the year after with 31 inches here.

The AFD for the big bust stated " Dangerous historic crippling Blizzard is on the way "

Did we have the same kind of bust in Nemo (February 2013)? I remember some forecast maps with 30"+.... it did verify, but out east in Suffolk County and in CT with 35-40.

January 2015 also jackpotted out east and northeast of us. 24-30 if I remember correctly.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@jm1220 wins again 

When do you mean? 0.5" of crud in the last event and the event in Jan I had 3.5". I have about 10" for the season which I guess is better than most in NYC/LI but still 50% of average to date. I won't be here at the house tonight actually, I'll be on the south shore where it likely won't be winning whatsoever.  

Here at the house I'm thinking 3" of combined snow/sleet, hopefully the rain stays away. I'd much rather be in SNE for this or UNY.

[NYER72]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That was 1 day out

That was the DAY OF and  AFTER it started falling. One lone voice calling BS on the massive totals forecast who was right...dont recall who but people really lost it. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I got 7 inches in Jan 2015; in March 2001 I had a glaze of sleet over two days.....

we had sleet and freezing rain for 2 days and then backend snow on the third day, that's how we salvaged 4 inches of snow.  Out east of us there was a foot near Patchogue.

 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Did we have the same kind of bust in Nemo (February 2013)? I remember some forecast maps with 30"+.... it did verify, but out east in Suffolk County and in CT with 35-40.

January 2015 also jackpotted out east and northeast of us. 24-30 if I remember correctly.

March 2017 was worse...though some areas did ok. Nemo gave us 6 inches out here in the city got 11, we lost a lot to rain and sleet at the start IIRC.

[sussexcountyobs]

16 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Well not to brag but it is looking like I was right all along huh? Today's misses north and midweek misses south. There's a reason I call for low snow, we are in an epically unlucky low snow cycle. Cant deny it.

The storm is over? Damn. I missed the whole thing. I knew I should have woken up before 8am this morning.