Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, TriPol said:

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

I’m terrible at remembering specific events but I do recall a number of times where Upton was more aggressive than the model averages. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I like this. I do think a quick thump to sleet. 2-4 inches.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Lines up pretty well against NWS forecast

Let's hope it verifies. It keeps most in the forum happy.

[WestBabylonWeather]

We had so many misses this year on Long Island that I will gladly take 3” of snow changing to sleet. Just keep the rain away 

[MJO812]

Nam is more north. Barely any snow for NYC . What a disaster. Hope it's wrong.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is more north. Barely any snow for NYC . What a disaster. Hope it's wrong.

Ha. Let’s miss south on Tuesday and call it a winter 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Ha. Let’s miss south on Tuesday and call it a winter 

Congrats AnthonyMM ( Noreaster 19 ) ?

[cannoliman42]

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

[MJO812]

Just now, cannoliman42 said:

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

I like your name

Anyway Nam has been awful many times this close but can't discount it just yet.

[MJO812]

Congrats Long Island

[ILoveWinter]

7 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

We’ve seen both models miss badly so close to gametime, hopefully the HRRR is victorious 

[MJO812]

12z FV3 is mostly snow

[MJO812]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

We’ve seen both models miss badly so close to gametime, hopefully the HRRR is victorious 

We just have to wait and see tonight 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like your name

Anyway Nam has been awful many times this close but can't discount it just yet.

Well I stopped in the supermarket for some mop and glo, which seems to be scarce in this age of supply chain issues, and was surprised the lot was full....then I realized people think its gonna snow. Most of the eggs were gone ( due to the bird flu pandemic ) and a lot of the milk was gone, including the kind I needed. God help us if they ever call for an actual bona fide snow event here in CNJ. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We just have to wait and see tonight 

You mean it's coming down to nowcasting? I never would have guessed....

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

Most people blew off the NAM with the last event and what happened?  Conversely the HRRR was very aggressive with snow amounts and ended up scaling these back just as the precipitation arrived.  I would go with the NAM.  

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well I stopped in the supermarket for some mop and glo, which seems to be scarce in this age of supply chain issues, and was surprised the lot was full....then I realized people think its gonna snow. Most of the eggs were gone ( due to the bird flu pandemic ) and a lot of the milk was gone, including the kind I needed. God help us if they ever call for an actual bona fide snow event here in CNJ. 

People rush to the supermarkets all the time before a snowevent ( no clue why ) . The media hypes these events.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

and then there was January 2015.....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Most people blew off the NAM with the last event and what happened?  Conversely the HRRR was very aggressive with snow amounts and ended up scaling these back just as the precipitation arrived.  I would go with the NAM.  

People blow off the nam because it has been more wrong than right in the past .

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

and then there was January 2015.....

Thanks to the Nam and Euro

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

People rush to the supermarkets all the time before a snowevent ( no clue why ) . The media hypes these events.

Bone chilling weekend is definitely a clownish headline 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like this. I do think a quick thump to sleet. 2-4 inches.

This would be our biggest event of the season if this turns out to be correct.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and then there was January 2015.....

Ouch

That was the most depressing heavy snow event in my lifetime. Felt bad after getting seven inches of snow LOL.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Ouch

I mean a 10 inch snowfall sounds pretty awesome right about now, but coming off the expectations of 30"+ was pretty bad.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I mean a 10 inch snowfall sounds pretty awesome right about now, but coming off the expectations of 30"+ was pretty bad.

 

The worst power about the whole thing was the local forecasts and the national weather service stuck to their guns up until early in the morning even though the euro was the last and only to fall because the nam fell earlier.

[EastonSN+]

Very strange just watched The weather channel and they doubled down on New York City getting 5 inches.

They must be going off to href that Don posted. Not surprised that they are not deviating from the national weather service though. 

They have 80% of Long Island 6 Plus.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This would be our biggest event of the season if this turns out to be correct.

 

I got 3 inches from the wave last month .

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People blow off the nam because it has been more wrong than right in the past .

its nowcasting time - keep your eyes on the ball - monitor radar trends and various surface  and upper level guidance - watching the models now arguing with each other so close to tonights event will lead you down the wrong road - as of 9:30 AM radar shows precip moving west to east across northern VA and southern delmarva back through Kentucky with little northward progression yet - frozen line is far south too across southern delmarva

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Very strange just watched The weather channel and they doubled down on New York City getting 5 inches.

They must be going off to href that Don posted. Not surprised that they are not deviating from the national weather service though. 

They have 80% of Long Island 6 Plus.

our local (wabc) has most of long island in 2-4 and the north shore of suffolk county in a narrow strip of 4-8 (really 4-6 like they said).

 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

Maybe by some miracle the HRRR will be closer to right but I highly doubt it and we saw it suddenly warm up close in to the last "event". South Shore/southern NYC 1-2", N Shore and northern NYC 2-4", Yonkers/Paramus/White Plains and immediate CT coast area 4-6", north of that 6"+. The 1-2" area may have little left by the time storm's over because rain will wash it away. N Shore may just go to sleet and avoid rain. It hasn't really evolved yet but we need the extended heavy snow shield to hold the warm air back, or it will be the lower end of those ranges.