Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Long Island rarely does well in gradient patterns. Great for the ski resorts 

SWFEs in general are very predictable for this area. They're a reason the snow averages are what they are in the Northeast. It's also a Nina winter, so the SWFEs were bound to start up sooner or later. I'll be in Long Beach tomorrow-hopefully something is still left on the ground after the change to rain. At least at home the sleet will probably stick around for a while after and maybe an hour or two of decent snow to start. N of the city gets their 6-8".

[weatherpruf]

Just now, jm1220 said:

SWFEs in general are very predictable for this area. They're a reason the snow averages are what they are in the Northeast. It's also a Nina winter, so the SWFEs were bound to start up sooner or later. I'll be in Long Beach tomorrow-hopefully something is still left on the ground after the change to rain. At least at home the sleet will probably stick around for a while after and maybe an hour or two of decent snow to start. N of the city gets their 6-8".

They do suck and yet once in awhile, rarely, you get a nice thump that accumulates before the changeover. Twice that I can think of, actually....

[MJO812]

Ukie still gives us a few inches

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

They do suck and yet once in awhile, rarely, you get a nice thump that accumulates before the changeover. Twice that I can think of, actually....

February 2008 and November 2018

Weird to see that work in November lol

[MJO812]

NSSL Mpas- HT 

[RU848789]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Okay...remember Thursdays half of expected qpf

 

You had us as CONSENSUS  3-5 inches of snow  this morning

Changing the topic is a sure sign you have lost the argument.  But for the record, at 1 am this morning on a model summary post I said "we're nearing consensus on a 3-5" event between 276/195 and 78" and was referring to model consensus, which was absolutely true based on last night's 0Z model runs where every single model most look at (GFS, CMC, Euro, UK, ICON, NAM and RGEM) had 3-5" for that area.  It was not a forecast and I seriously questioned that model consensus this morning after seeing the 6Z and 12Z NAM showing a lot of sleet.  

[greenmtnwx]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Gradient storms.

Guys rooting for this setup…I think they are crazy personally.

Always want the cold air on your side

The setup we wanted was a few weeks ago. We just got unlucky. We had the deep cold and just missed a couple storms turning corner. That pattern usually works out. Not this one. 

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully HRRR is correct with its wall of snow depiction. That would easily drop a few inches (2-4") in 2-3 hours before any changeover. 

[Allsnow]

Euro cut back for the the immediate metro. I don’t like how the nams show very little snow for nyc. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I would love to see some type of consensus / agreement among the short term models so close to game time ,,,lets see what today brings

 

[wishcast_hater]

This mornings forecast discussion mentions some possible wintry mix for even for my area. That can’t bode well for you guys south of me. Hope that you guys do better than forecast and that Tuesday storm tracks further north.


.

[BoulderWX]

My WWA went from up to two inches to 2-5 and a tenth of ice. 

Still think 1-3 and a lot of sleet is the call for my area. 

[psv88]

Dead in here… models must have been really bad lol

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I would love to see some type of consensus / agreement among the short term models so close to game time ,,,lets see what today brings

 

think we are fine.

[EastonSN+]

Latest from NWS.

 

[RU848789]

The updated NWS maps for snow/ice are below and show a bit of an increase in snowfall amounts for the NWS-Philly counties from Sussex down through EPA/CNJ vs. yesterday.  Note that other media forecasts show more snow/sleet than the NWS (News12/TWC) and some have similar amounts (Channel 4/Channel 7; I could post them if people are interested, but I thought they were frowned upon here. 

Obviously a very tough forecast with 1" per hour snow (or the equivalent amount of sleet) falling over 5-6 hours, so when the changeover occurs (for those who change over) will hugely impact how much snow vs. sleet is observed; and most look to get maybe 0.1" of freezing rain at the end; also, the sleet/snow will all accumulate at night with temps generally at or below 32F for the storm.  And there are models with mostly snow and little sleet vs models with mostly sleet with little snow and everything in-between so good luck to people who forecast for a living. 

No matter what, at the end of this storm for most in this forum, there will likely be 0.5-0.7" of frozen QPF on the ground (even the freezing rain will simply be absorbed into the snow/sleet pack) which is substantial, so impacts on driving will be significant regardless of how much snow vs. sleet and it'll be a heavy shoveling.  

[ILoveWinter]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Latest from NWS.

 

I think it’s a bit bullish for the immediate metro but we shall see

[Allsnow]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

I think it’s a bit bullish for the immediate metro but we shall see

Agree. Take that down to 1-3 for nyc 

[winterwarlock]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. Take that down to 1-3 for nyc 

The Weather Channel and News 12 are insane...3-6 for central jersey..what what what

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

The Weather Channel and News 12 are insane...3-6 for central jersey..what what what

They are meteorologists and we aren’t… so there’s that 

[winterwarlock]

Just now, allgame830 said:

They are meteorologists and we aren’t… so there’s that 

What model even shows 6  imby

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

The Weather Channel and News 12 are insane...3-6 for central jersey..what what what

Agree those are very likely high, unless the HRRR scores a reverse NAM coup, lol

[cannoliman42]

Interesting trends on the HRRR. 6z NAM also showed a bit more snow for NYC Metro. The 12z run will be very telling. 

[uofmiami]

[donsutherland1]

The 0z HREF:

[TJW014]

Sitting at 30 right now. Sun breaking through the clouds as well. But it was always going to be a sleet to rain event here. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

22 Degrees cloudy skies, the smell of snow in the air.

Give me 5.6 inches of snow this storm to get my seasonal total to 30 inches and I'll be content, for now at least. Throw an inch of sleet on top to preserve the snow cover, even better.

33 Days of snow cover so far this winter, my minimum criteria is 45 days for an acceptable winter, so well on my way.

As opposed to most that just like to chase the big snow, give me normal to below average winter cold and snow cover and several 4-8 inch events per season and I'm happy. The milder winters with one 20-30 inch blockbuster that melts in a week, you can keep.

[ILoveWinter]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z HREF:

Lines up pretty well against NWS forecast

[TriPol]

54 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Latest from NWS.

 

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I’ve never seen Upton be aggressive with snowfall totals before. We could have a historic blizzard knocking on our doorstep and Upton would go 3-6, locally 6-12, meanwhile two feet dropped. Unreal.

Not sure how this is aggressive except maybe for the metro. NW and CT look good for those amounts