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Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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WestBabylonWeather
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And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the po

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

They posted a Winter Storm Watch yesterday by midday.  That was strange, considering it is a "marginal" event, and was about 56 hours in advance.  A Winter Storm Watch is a precursor before a Winter Storm Warning.   A Winter Weather Advisory is a downgrade.  I guess we can debate intent, semantics, grammar, etc.

Gotcha - was just curious what you were referring to as it wasn't obvious.  I was also surprised by the watch, which was pretty early.  

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Gotcha - was just curious what you were referring to as it wasn't obvious.  I was also surprised by the watch, which was pretty early.  

well I'm exhausted. You think we are doing a big sleet fest tomorrow here? 2 inches of sleet is nothing to trifle with. I'd much rather have snow, but we have struggled in better setups, no? I'm all set for bread and milk. But chicken is getting a little scarce these days....we're losing millions of them. Stay safe.

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romba

romba

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I know NWS says 2-4" for around here. But I'm saying specifically for my location 4-6. I need 5.6" to reach 40" for the year so far . I feel confident. 

 

11 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

34.4" as we speak. Still have  snow/sleet pack from yesterday. Everything is white and frozen solid. Currently 24°

Jeez we’re trying to break 10 down here, what a flex

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

34.4" as we speak. Still have  snow/sleet pack from yesterday. Everything is white and frozen solid. Currently 24°

Sitting at 25.4" here. 

11/22-23/24 = largest event at 6.5".

1/20/25 = 6.1"

12/21/24 = 5.2"

Total 17.8" from those 3 events.  The remaining 7.6" all came from 9 additional events that left 1.5" or less.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

FWIW, 0z HRRR looks impressive for I-80/NYC/LI with a big thump especially for the N Shore. It eventually warms up around NYC at 750-800mb around 5z but by then most of it is over. It has the "come in like a wall" scenario. Not sure if it's underdoing the warm layer or the heavy rates are holding it back. Along I-195 seems to get a ton of sleet. Most of the storm for NYC is from 0z-6z, it's definitely racing along. 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

FWIW, 0z HRRR looks impressive for I-80/NYC/LI with a big thump especially for the N Shore. It eventually warms up around NYC at 750-800mb around 5z but by then most of it is over. It has the "come in like a wall" scenario. Not sure if it's underdoing the warm layer or the heavy rates are holding it back. Along I-195 seems to get a ton of sleet. Most of the storm for NYC is from 0z-6z, it's definitely racing along. 

Nice… do you have an illustration lol 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Nice… do you have an illustration lol 

image.png.ada77f7b263fed0fed063ab0db4d948d.png

This is at 4z at around JFK. The 750mb warm layer is starting to show up here and maybe it's a little too cool at that layer or heavy rates that are happening here are holding the warm air back. The NAM has it warmer at that layer with a more pronounced warm nose. I tend to believe the NAM more but we'll see what the other 0z models show. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025020800&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

image.png.ada77f7b263fed0fed063ab0db4d948d.png

This is at 4z at around JFK. The 750mb warm layer is starting to show up here and maybe it's a little too cool at that layer or heavy rates that are happening here are holding the warm air back. The NAM has it warmer at that layer with a more pronounced warm nose. I tend to believe the NAM more but we'll see what the other 0z models show. 

Thanks. Seems if that’s the case north shore and north would rip for a few hours til about midnight before anything other then snow right ? 

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anthonymm

anthonymm

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

FWIW, 0z HRRR looks impressive for I-80/NYC/LI with a big thump especially for the N Shore. It eventually warms up around NYC at 750-800mb around 5z but by then most of it is over. It has the "come in like a wall" scenario. Not sure if it's underdoing the warm layer or the heavy rates are holding it back. Along I-195 seems to get a ton of sleet. Most of the storm for NYC is from 0z-6z, it's definitely racing along. 

NAM says no way jose. NAM nailed the warm nose last time. Think its gonna be a very similar outcome this time.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted
Just now, anthonymm said:

NAM says no way jose. NAM nailed the warm nose last time. Think its gonna be a very similar outcome this time.


You don’t know that. Rgem and Gem-Lam are not on the Nams side as well. We won’t sort this out until tomorrow.

Could go either way still.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes we have and the Nam busted many times. Let's see the other models but I still like 1-3 for the coast. 

1-3” may be the max for the coast, hoping it works out down there. My location should be OK being 30 miles north of the city for a general 3-6” with locally up to 7/8 in heavier bands 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

Precip delayed=more time for warm air to take over before snow starts. We also want the snow to come in early before the warm air aloft has a chance to take over. 

Right but that’s not something we will be able to figure out 24 hours out. I’d say but early afternoon we should be able to see if delayed or not 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, allgame830 said:

Right but that’s not something we will be able to figure out 24 hours out. I’d say but early afternoon we should be able to see if delayed or not 

We'll see tomorrow afternoon. If the snow is stretched out well ahead of the low and heavy, we have a shot at the high end of expectations. If it looks shredded and taking forever to advance, it'll probably be a slopfest to rain around the city/LI and maybe even a little further north to Westchester and SW CT (sleet not rain). 

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