Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Huh?  No obvious changes - care to fill us in?

They posted a Winter Storm Watch yesterday by midday.  That was strange, considering it is a "marginal" event, and was about 56 hours in advance.  A Winter Storm Watch is a precursor before a Winter Storm Warning.   A Winter Weather Advisory is a downgrade.  I guess we can debate intent, semantics, grammar, etc.

[winterwarlock]

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Get out there tomorrow night before it washes away warlock 

[BoulderWX]

16 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

2” for MMU seems right. Probably .20 of sleet/ice as well. I’ve said from the beginning  the city and north and east will do better than the western parts of the area on this one

[MJO812]

Ukie

[RU848789]

24 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

well if the gfs is right, its a non event for me

So, you're saying 1" of snow then 1-2" of sleet (3-6" snow equivalent) and then maybe 0.2" ZR is a non-event?  Sure, it's not a lot of pure snow, verbatim, but we're still talking about 0.5-0.7" frozen QPF on the ground (the ZR will be absorbed).  Pretty sure your neighbors will disagree as would most posters here.  

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Get out there tomorrow night before it washes away warlock 

0.5-0.7" QPF otg won't be washing away any time soon...

[ag3]

You guys are too negative. This can go either way.

Right now, 2”-5” is a good call for NYC metro. 

[allgame830]

49 minutes ago, ag3 said:

You guys are too negative. This can go either way.

Right now, 2”-5” is a good call for NYC metro. 

And that what makes this sub forum unreadable at times. 

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, ag3 said:

You guys are too negative. This can go either way.

Right now, 2”-5” is a good call for NYC metro. 

Agree. No clue why.

Nothing wrong with 2-4 inches with possibly more. We shall see at 0z.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Agree. No clue why.

Nothing wrong with 2-4 inches with possibly more. We shall see at 0z.

18z euro?

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

So, you're saying 1" of snow then 1-2" of sleet (3-6" snow equivalent) and then maybe 0.2" ZR is a non-event?  Sure, it's not a lot of pure snow, verbatim, but we're still talking about 0.5-0.7" frozen QPF on the ground (the ZR will be absorbed).  Pretty sure your neighbors will disagree as would most posters here.  

If the gfs which gives me less than inch is right..then yes

 

But go ahead post Tropical tidbits nonsense...hiw did tgat work out for you last time

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Get out there tomorrow night before it washes away warlock 

 

Yup..remember  I told you about Thursday sleet before it happened

 

Perhaps a bit more this time but still an 1.-1.5 of slop overnight is unimpressive

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

So, you're saying 1" of snow then 1-2" of sleet (3-6" snow equivalent) and then maybe 0.2" ZR is a non-event?  Sure, it's not a lot of pure snow, verbatim, but we're still talking about 0.5-0.7" frozen QPF on the ground (the ZR will be absorbed).  Pretty sure your neighbors will disagree as would most posters here.  

Also neighbors will be sleeping...this is  out shortly after midnight...roads will be fine upon wakey unless we get an ice storm

 

 

 

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

If the gfs which gives me less than inch is right..then yes

Are you just trolling, as is your habit, or are you going to really try to convince people that 1" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and 0.1-0.2" of ZR is a non-event?  We saw significant impacts yesterday from 1/2" of sleet for most and this would be about 4x as much frozen QPF otg.  

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree. No clue why.

Nothing wrong with 2-4 inches with possibly more. We shall see at 0z.

Nyc will measure 1.8 

[SnowGoose69]

12/19/08 continues to be a remarkably close analog to this storm.  There was a transfer from a primary, LGA saw 4, JFK 2, HPN-BDR 6-7.   This event does not have the high in as ideal a spot to the north which is why I'd take amounts down due to more sleet.

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Are you just trolling, as is your habit, or are you going to really try to convince people that 1" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and 0.1-0.2" of ZR is a non-event?  We saw significant impacts yesterday from 1/2" of sleet for most and this would be about 4x as much frozen QPF otg.  

Look at the gfs clown map in posted..I said if it's right it's a non event for me yes

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Are you just trolling, as is your habit, or are you going to really try to convince people that 1" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and 0.1-0.2" of ZR is a non-event?  We saw significant impacts yesterday from 1/2" of sleet for most and this would be about 4x as much frozen QPF otg.  

We won't have 2 inches of sleet imby

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats LI

If this is right....and its fairly consistent with its 12z run

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

We won't have 2 inches of sleet imby

You don’t smell the sleet this time? 

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Also neighbors will be sleeping...this is  out shortly after midnight...roads will be fine upon wakey unless we get an ice storm

 

 

 

More trolling.  You do realize it'll be Saturday night when a ton of people will be out and about, with some probably drinking, so there will still be plenty of accidents, especially if people think it's a "non-event" plus how will roads magically be "fine" Sunday morning with ~6" snow equivalent on the roads (it will all accumulate at night with temps <32F) and temps not going above 32F until 9-10 am?  

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

We won't have 2 inches of sleet imby

That GFS run shows about 1.5-2" of sleet when comparing the Pivotal vs. TT maps.  

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You don’t smell the sleet this time? 

Oh its coming just not 2 inches worth..not convinced higher qpf verifies

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

More trolling.  You do realize it'll be Saturday night when a ton of people will be out and about, with some probably drinking, so there will still be plenty of accidents, especially if people think it's a "non-event" plus how will roads magically be "fine" Sunday morning with ~6" snow equivalent on the roads (it will all accumulate at night with temps <32F) and temps not going above 32F until 9-10 am?  

Not my yob to worry about peeps going out in a sleetfest...that's their responsibility 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

That GFS run shows about 1.5-2" of sleet when comparing the Pivotal vs. TT maps.  

No reason to banter with him it won’t get you anywhere 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That GFS run shows about 1.5-2" of sleet when comparing the Pivotal vs. TT maps.  

Okay...remember Thursdays half of expected qpf

 

You had us as CONSENSUS  3-5 inches of snow  this morning

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 JetBlue. Do you know much about their approach to heavy snow? Would they even have a choice in a storm like this?

 Also, I had been given the wrong info earlier. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions due to heavier snow (5-8”) and it ending later than in NYC. 
 

I just saw that JetBlue’s next flight to ATL isn’t leaving til 4PM. That would be too late.

They will cancel the morning departure. Tell her to switch

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

No reason to banter with him it won’t get you anywhere 

I remember peeps didn't want to hear that about Thursday tossing the nam...now they love the nam

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

They will cancel the morning departure. Tell her to switch

Delta is least likely to cancel flights but not sure you can rebook with another airline.  Some carriers have agreements with others, I want to say JBU has no rebook agreements with anyone nor does SWA