Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[BxEngine]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:19 PM, Rjay said:

This month could easily change this winter from a D to B+/A- but we'll see. 

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D is hysterical lol im almost halfway to my avg winter total, we’ve had more snow events than most of the last few seasons, and its been colder than avg. at worst its a C right now. 

[BlizzLuv]

  On 2/9/2025 at 12:34 PM, Poker2015 said:

You should see my area in Western Somerset County. Not sure if it's underperforming since I only thought I'd get 1-3" and we have 1", but it's 100% sleet and ice. We never went to all snow, maybe 10% snow and 90% sleet for a few minutes early on.

Weird storm here, skating rink

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I just went to see if I could scrape the driveway. No bueno. Frozen 1" crust. I will wait until it warms a bit more.

Last night, I stepped out on the porch around 11pm. It was pretty much straight freezing rain at that time. Earlier it was a very hard sleet hitting the window. For the times that I did look out the window, it was never snow. Just sleet.

[Sampson]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:16 PM, Rjay said:

Many kids wish you were their teacher lol 

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kind of a glass half full guy I guess 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:21 PM, BxEngine said:

D is hysterical lol im almost halfway to my avg winter total, we’ve had more snow events than most of the last few seasons, and its been colder than avg. at worst its a C right now. 

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D would have been the grade had NYC stayed under 10 inches of snow.  It's safely in C- territory now and should get to C for NYC with the next storm. It can get to B with another storm later in the month.

 

[Rjay]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:21 PM, BxEngine said:

D is hysterical lol im almost halfway to my avg winter total, we’ve had more snow events than most of the last few seasons, and its been colder than avg. at worst its a C right now. 

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It's all relative to location.  I'm sitting at 9" for the winter.  It definitely felt more like winter which is why it's not an F.   An average winter around here is like 25ish inches.  An average student is a C student.  

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:25 PM, Rjay said:

It's all relative to location.  I'm sitting at 9" for the winter.  It definitely felt more like winter which is why it's not an F.   An average winter around here is like 25ish inches.  An average student is a C student.  

 

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Right you're still at D, you'll be at C- with the next storm if you get 4"+

[MANDA]

Some great video of the snow in NYC last night.

 

https://x.com/i/status/1888449741647904796

 

[JonClaw]

From family out in Patchogue:

[Brian5671]

About 4 inches here. BDR measured 5 which is amazing they are like Central Park there always under measuring


.

[WestBabylonWeather]

With the sleet fest near the end it was not fun to shovel. Thank god it was only 4”. Heavy as hell

 

I live on a dead end the plow left a pile of snow right in front of my driveway 

 

[snywx]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:21 PM, BxEngine said:

D is hysterical lol im almost halfway to my avg winter total, we’ve had more snow events than most of the last few seasons, and its been colder than avg. at worst its a C right now. 

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Agreed. I’m just under 30” ytd right now and my long term avg is right around 50”. As of right now it’s a solid C/C+

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3.9 inch final tally here, 28.3 for the season.

A B- so far, 34 days of snow cover and a white Christmas and average to slightly below average cold

No complaints with this winter, was expecting 6-7 but we've had almost non stop snow cover since the January 19th 8 inch storm.

On To Thursday for here, doubtful Tuesday night reaps much for those of us to the N & W.

[ForestHillWx]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:13 PM, rgwp96 said:

3 inches butler nj 

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Tight gradient. You’re about 20 miles northwest of my location and you doubled up on this one. 

[ForestHillWx]

  On 2/9/2025 at 2:17 PM, wdrag said:

Hope we agree that the NAM and SREF are not always best... certainly not last night.  This time the EC-EPS kind of nailed it, Canadian and GFS not too bad either, as opposed to last Thursday when the NAM/SREF prevailed. 

That is why pronouncements need to be counted in uncertainty.  

CoCoRaHs for last nights snow attached. Please click for clarity and unless your amount differs by more than 20% from these numbers, please accept this as reasonable. 

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I feel like I’m cheating with that CoCoRas in Chester now. 

I had it at 1.5”; 1.8” is spot on. 

[sussexcountyobs]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:55 PM, snywx said:

Agreed. I’m just under 30” ytd right now and my long term avg is right around 50”. As of right now it’s a solid C/C+

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I'm right with you. I'm at 37.4" for the season. Average is 50-55"

I'd say C+ so far

[JustinRP37]

  On 2/9/2025 at 2:42 PM, NittanyWx said:

Everyone thinks it’s easy until they have to do it for a living, then it’s not so easy.

 

 

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Never thought it was easy as a climate scientist. Then again nobody believes science is worth funding these days so expect results to get worse...

[rgwp96]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:57 PM, ForestHillWx said:

Tight gradient. You’re about 20 miles northwest of my location and you doubled up on this one. 

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You will get more on the next one 

[Poker2015]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:23 PM, BlizzLuv said:

I just went to see if I could scrape the driveway. No bueno. Frozen 1" crust. I will wait until it warms a bit more.

Last night, I stepped out on the porch around 11pm. It was pretty much straight freezing rain at that time. Earlier it was a very hard sleet hitting the window. For the times that I did look out the window, it was never snow. Just sleet.

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I took a pitchfork and it worked great to break it all up. Now the kids are shoveling it to the side of the driveway 

[JustinRP37]

Honestly, I'd give this winter a solid B-/B in the lower Hudson Valley and B/B+ to the north. Even if the snow has so far been below average, the skiing and cold have been great. It would be an A-/A if we haven't had rain on every holiday weekend so far. However, further to north like Jay Peak, this is easily an A winter. Jay Peak currently has depths rivaling out west. It has been an odd winter for sure. Hoping to still get at least one storm that reaches winter storm warning criteria and I think we will pull that off this month. 

[wdrag]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:59 PM, ForestHillWx said:

I feel like I’m cheating with that CoCoRas in Chester now. 

I had it at 1.5”; 1.8” is spot on. 

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You all humor me from time to time... thanks for your comment(s).  

 

Inexact science, but pretty darn good when you consider the potential for lead time Preparatory information to the public mitigating hazard impact.  That's why our road departments are generally on top of the situations and able to minimize disruptions. 

 

returning after 4P.

[Blizzwalker]

  On 2/9/2025 at 1:42 PM, Dark Star said:

Depends which time the forecast was issued.  I never saw an official 5" to 10" from the NWS, but who knows?

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NOAA had Middletown NY at 4-8, then yesterday afternoon went up to 5-9. We got 3-4. This brings up questions about what variables contributed to a bust for them- certainly infrequent for NOAA to be off by such a margin.

The track seemed ok- and we didn't seem to get much sleet.  Was it qpf ? I don't know the physics of snow growth, but maybe some subtle variables went in the 'wrong" direction.

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:23 PM, BlizzLuv said:

I just went to see if I could scrape the driveway. No bueno. Frozen 1" crust. I will wait until it warms a bit more.

Last night, I stepped out on the porch around 11pm. It was pretty much straight freezing rain at that time. Earlier it was a very hard sleet hitting the window. For the times that I did look out the window, it was never snow. Just sleet.

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I was disappointed in the outcome across CNJ, but as I went to clean there was no way I was going to be able to cut through that crud. Fortunately, the big ass snowblower ate it right up. Didn't think I'd ever use it on a 1-2 inch deal, but man what a difference...neighbors are still chopping. Went for a walk in Roosevelt Park in Edison and hoo boy, it was hazardous. Even with hikers designed for ice. What's next...bring it on.

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:56 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

3.9 inch final tally here, 28.3 for the season.

A B- so far, 34 days of snow cover and a white Christmas and average to slightly below average cold

No complaints with this winter, was expecting 6-7 but we've had almost non stop snow cover since the January 19th 8 inch storm.

On To Thursday for here, doubtful Tuesday night reaps much for those of us to the N & W.

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We did have a winter feel this year, just no big snows. Better than a cloudy 40-45 every day with rain like some winters.No contest.

[Allsnow]

Seems like nyc/LI did as well as SNE last night 

@jm1220

Bos 5.5 

Nyc 3.1 

[winterwx21]

That was some shoveling job. The inch and a half felt like 6 inches, and I had to chop to get under a lot of it. And the stuff from the plows up against the curb was extremely heavy. I got soaked with sweat just like I had gone for a run, lol. I enjoyed the work though. 

[Dark Star]

  On 2/9/2025 at 4:52 PM, Blizzwalker said:

NOAA had Middletown NY at 4-8, then yesterday afternoon went up to 5-9. We got 3-4. This brings up questions about what variables contributed to a bust for them- certainly infrequent for NOAA to be off by such a margin.

The track seemed ok- and we didn't seem to get much sleet.  Was it qpf ? I don't know the physics of snow growth, but maybe some subtle variables went in the 'wrong" direction.

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The post was somebody from Patterson, NJ.  Not sure if the forecast was ever 5"-10" for that town.  Regardless, the energy was about 75 miles farther north. But strangely, the colder air was farther to the east, limiting the snow just west of NYC.  Usually, the air is colder as you move west.

[forkyfork]

sne barely got more than most of us

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=42&lon=-71.82&hr=24

[Kaner587]

Fairly uniform 4-5in along the north shore of LI which was very well forecast by the models (and nws)

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:59 PM, Kaner587 said:

Fairly uniform 4-5in along the north shore of LI which was very well forecast by the models (and nws)

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and pretty uniform 3-4 inches along the south shore of Long Island

this wasn't a changeover storm, what kept amounts uniform was that the storm was out of here before any warming had an impact.

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2025 at 5:59 PM, Dark Star said:

The post was somebody from Patterson, NJ.  Not sure if the forecast was ever 5"-10" for that town.  Regardless, the energy was about 75 miles farther north. But strangely, the colder air was farther to the east, limiting the snow just west of NYC.  Usually, the air is colder as you move west.

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No, I wrote about this before it started to snow.  The cold air was pressing in from the northeast, like it has in some of our famous suppression scenarios.  Usually this factor plays against us in suppressive storms but in this case the cold air banked to the east kept it snow until the storm was basically out of here.