Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That wall of snow is booking it across PA now! Btw gfs looks colder and snowier 

will be interesting to see if the thump really develops with additional moisture as it moves E/NE

[wdrag]

Quite the challenge tonight... how much qpf before an above freezing layer between 725-825MB arrives and turns snow to rain/sleet.freezing rain.  There could be quite a gradient of ice to heavy snow between DXR-HPN, POU-MGJ.  I should be sleet here at 10PM in Wantage per NAM.   IF the HRRR is right... forget the sleet-rain.  

I'm playing cautious lower end of snow. 

[allgame830]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

will be interesting to see if the thump really develops with additional moisture as it moves E/NE

You can already start to see that now with the moisture over the past few hours exploding in OH and PA with the leading edge almost to state college

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

There’s no wall of snow in PA

40dbz returns just north of state college via RadarScope indicting SN+

[Dark Star]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

will be interesting to see if the thump really develops with additional moisture as it moves E/NE

I saw varying start times, both here and from the NWS.  I think the times averaged between a 4PM and 6PM start time?  One would tend to think the later the start time, the worse the show?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, wdrag said:

Quite the challenge tonight... how much qpf before an above freezing layer between 725-825MB arrives and turns snow to rain/sleet.freezing rain.  There could be quite a gradient of ice to heavy snow between DXR-HPN, POU-MGJ.  I should be sleet here at 10PM in Wantage per NAM.   IF the HRRR is right... forget the sleet-rain.  

I'm playing cautious lower end of snow. 

Something I find interesting on the maps is that the cold air is deeper the further east you go, so for example N NJ could be pinging while it's snowing in Suffolk County (both north and south shore.)

[MJO812]

[Superstorm]

40dbz returns just north of state college via RadarScope indicting SN+

Freezing rain and sleet per mPing


.

[MJO812]

Abc7

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Quite the challenge tonight... how much qpf before an above freezing layer between 725-825MB arrives and turns snow to rain/sleet.freezing rain.  There could be quite a gradient of ice to heavy snow between DXR-HPN, POU-MGJ.  I should be sleet here at 10PM in Wantage per NAM.   IF the HRRR is right... forget the sleet-rain.  

I'm playing cautious lower end of snow. 

For long island any changeover might hold off until after midnight, it looks like the further east you are the stronger the cold air will hold.

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR definitely got better on the 21z run. What a difference between HRRR and NAM. Hopefully we can pull off a little thump, but who knows what's gonna happen. Talk about a difficult forecast. 

[psv88]

Down to 31/18, wetbulb 27 so we are good for cold 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Diff of models only come down to actual placement of the primary low, it's movement isnt as northerly as the nam has it. Any redevelopment south and east of nyc would prob keep us mostly frozen with a dying low on the southern pa border. Also precip shield wont be as spotty this time.

[Blizzwalker]

15 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Freezing rain and sleet per mPing


.

Fwiw, 2 reports of snow further E in Pa on  mPing /Radarscope right now., on the E edge of the radar returns in Pa.

[RU848789]

FWIW, the HRRR does jump around and has gotten a fair amount snowier, especially on the S and W margins in CNJ, over the last 4 runs.  There's still hope, lol...

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

40dbz returns just north of state college via RadarScope indicting SN+

Sleet line is just N of I-80 in PA. State College will likely get nailed with sleet for a few hours. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

FWIW, the HRRR does jump around and has gotten a fair amount snowier, especially on the S and W margins in CNJ, over the last 4 runs.  There's still hope, lol...

Keep the faith bud,i know i do even when it looks bleak. Lol

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Fwiw, 2 reports of snow further E in Pa on  mPing /Radarscope right now., on the E edge of the radar returns in Pa.

I’ll be interested in what happens along I-78/Allentown area, if that snows for a while that’s a good sign for us. 

[RU848789]

Also, the NWS-Philly hasn't thrown in the towel by any stretch as per their latest AFD, below.  My forecast has actually had snowfall go up to 3.4" (I'm in the 3-4" swath in far northern Middlesex County.  If the drier and warmer aloft-faster trends on several models verify, could be one of those storms where there's a significant difference between, say NB and places like Freehold, Trenton or Frenchtown to the S/SW/W, i.e., decently more snow and precip in NB. Maybe. Time to watch the radars and it's certainly plenty cold for snow/sleet with temps around 32F, but low humidity and dewpoints in the upper teens meaning the wet bulb effect will get most down into the mid/upper 20s for awhile. Going to be an interesting next 8 hours or so.

Further north, a burst of moderate to heavy snow looks likely
after sunset for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern NJ,
possibly extending into the northern Philly suburbs and central
NJ briefly, before the change to sleet and freezing rain. Where
that lingers longest as snow, highest accumulations will be
found, with 3-6 inches expected in northernmost NJ, 2-4 inches
in the Poconos and the rest of north-central NJ, and 1-2 inches
in the Lehigh Valley, northern Philly suburbs and central NJ.
This prolonged period of snow, followed by sleet, should result
in less ice accumulation, closer to a tenth of an inch or less.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

FWIW, the HRRR does jump around and has gotten a fair amount snowier, especially on the S and W margins in CNJ, over the last 4 runs.  There's still hope, lol...

It’s been incredibly consistent for the island, as have most models. Harder forecast for NJ

[RU848789]

Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Keep the faith bud,i know i do even when it looks bleak. Lol

Don't get me wrong, I'm very concerned about getting mostly sleet as I'd like to see some snow and the trends have not been good for mostly snow for anyone really, but the NWS knows more about this stuff than I do and I just hope they're going to be right.  I'd rejoice if I got the forecast they have for me of 3.4" of pretty dense snow and sleet that comes from 0.59" of QPF, with 0.06" of ZR on top of that.  

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet line is just N of I-80 in PA. State College will likely get nailed with sleet for a few hours. 

As of 5PM Johnstown which is an elevated location was reporting Freezing rain.  Pittsburgh Intl was reporting a thunderstorm… lol.  This is certainly a dynamic system.

[Yaz]

The GFS warm nose around 800 mb yielding the freezing rain….. let’s see if it will be correct or not for tonight.

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

FWIW, the HRRR does jump around and has gotten a fair amount snowier, especially on the S and W margins in CNJ, over the last 4 runs.  There's still hope, lol...

The area surrounded by 84 in orange, 287 in northern jersey down to rt 80, and up the hudson river is in no mans land right now, good luck with that forecast, geez.

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Yaz said:

The GFS warm nose around 800 mb yielding the freezing rain….. let’s see if it will be correct or not for tonight.

That is an ugly sounding. Give me snow/sleet/rain or nothing at all. Just not freezing rain lol. 

[Yaz]

1 minute ago, Yaz said:

The GFS warm nose around 800 mb yielding the freezing rain….. let’s see if it will be correct or not for tonight.

And borderline RH’s and lift in the DGZ.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

As of 5PM Johnstown which is an elevated location was reporting Freezing rain.  Pittsburgh Intl was reporting a thunderstorm… lol.  This is certainly a dynamic system.

Yep, ice storm warning there. I guess their elevated location is closer to the mid level warm nose, so the precip can’t refreeze in time to form sleet. 

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR definitely got better on the 21z run. What a difference between HRRR and NAM. Hopefully we can pull off a little thump, but who knows what's gonna happen. Talk about a difficult forecast. 

If the nam gets this right besides being a huge bust I'll never doubt it again in this sort of setup. At least inside 12 hours. Not so much beyond that 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the nam gets this right besides being a huge bust I'll never doubt it again in this sort of setup. At least inside 12 hours. Not so much beyond that 

Current radar sure matches the NAM better than any other model outside of the Euro, most already have extensive precip to the PA/NJ border by 23Z and not much is there

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Current radar sure matches the NAM better than any other model outside of the Euro, most already have extensive precip to the PA/NJ border by 23Z and not much is there

Yeah if the precip is delayed we're probably screwed