Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, psv88 said:

I really hope we don’t get the sleet forecasted. Terrible to deal with 

I will take sleet over freezing rain any day. Sleet you can at least drive thru, if you are very careful. Freezing rain? Forget it. Stay home.

 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance.

Oops, my bad. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. I may check in N.E. forum to see if anyone has a feel for whether or not Logan would likely have lots of cancellations and whether or not she should try to get a flight closer to lunchtime. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions.

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I will take sleet over freezing rain any day. Sleet you can at least drive thru, if you are very careful. Freezing rain? Forget it. Stay home.

 

Amen to that.

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

"It will come down to nowcasting."

That means you have a marginal setup haha

[the_other_guy]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance.

What airline? They all have different approaches

[RU848789]

Collaboration alert, lol.  The updated regional NWS map is below and clearly, the NWS-NYC and NWS-Philly offices are not in sync. Look at the bondary between Sussex and Orange, where it goes from 3-4" to 6-8 by magically crossing into NY; similarly NE Morris is at 2-3" and is up against 4-6" amounts in adjacent Essex/Passaic. I would think maybe the NWS-Philly might bump amounts back up to align them better (or vice versa, but the NWS-NYC just issued their info).

[mob1]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

That means you have a marginal setup haha

Also known as "winter in the NYC metro area". 

Our slam dunk snow events are few and far between (and need to be cherished). 

[MJO812]

Rgem with a nice thump

[MJO812]

3-6 on rgem for NYC

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

That means you have a marginal setup haha

Never gets old. We see run to run madness here already. Truth is we really don't know all the time until it gets going; if it starts pinging early, we know to give up on it. I'm at sea level and not far from Raritan Bay, and while people here don't think we are coastal, we are close enough. That said, Staten Island across the river often has spots that do better; not sure why. And parts of Monmouth; not sure if that bit of elevation in some parts makes the difference.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Collaboration alert, lol.  The updated regional NWS map is below and clearly, the NWS-NYC and NWS-Philly offices are not in sync. Look at the bondary between Sussex and Orange, where it goes from 3-4" to 6-8 by magically crossing into NY; similarly NE Morris is at 2-3" and is up against 4-6" amounts in adjacent Essex/Passaic. I would think maybe the NWS-Philly might bump amounts back up to align them better (or vice versa, but the NWS-NYC just issued their info).

The borders make no sense; we are very close to NYC and we are officially in Mt Holly's forecast region. Hop on the train in Metuchen to either city and see which one is faster....

[mikem81]

Looks like best precip is 0Z-6Z for the NYC metro. Mid-levels look good for first 3 hours. between 3Z-6Z is where NAM/GFS go to sleet and RGEM/EURO hang on to snow a bit longer...

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Never gets old. We see run to run madness here already. Truth is we really don't know all the time until it gets going; if it starts pinging early, we know to give up on it. I'm at sea level and not far from Raritan Bay, and while people here don't think we are coastal, we are close enough. That said, Staten Island across the river often has spots that do better; not sure why. And parts of Monmouth; not sure if that bit of elevation in some parts makes the difference.

Northern Middlesex County north of the Raritan can have several inches of snow and southern Middlesex County can have next to nothing but they are considered 1 forecast zone...........

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What airline? They all have different approaches

 JetBlue. Do you know much about their approach to heavy snow? Would they even have a choice in a storm like this?

 Also, I had been given the wrong info earlier. She’s leaving from Boston at ~7AM Sun, not NYC. It sounds like Boston may have worse conditions due to heavier snow (5-8”) and it ending later than in NYC. 
 

I just saw that JetBlue’s next flight to ATL isn’t leaving til 4PM. That would be too late.

[MJO812]

Icon

[mikem81]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem with a nice thump

only .1 falls after 6Z

 

[mikem81]

This is our window

[mikem81]

[ag3]

Both Nams improved at 18z.

 

[Allsnow]

@MJO812 do you have 540 for Ai most recent run? 

[RU848789]

Still no NWS-Philly AFD - wonder if they're reworking things to align better with Upton, which would mean bumping snowfall back up for most of the area...

[Northof78]

GFS a really nice thump before any possible turnover to sleet

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS a really nice thump before any possible turnover to sleet

Congrats LI

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats LI

Good. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

I will take sleet over freezing rain any day. Sleet you can at least drive thru, if you are very careful. Freezing rain? Forget it. Stay home.

 

Except that freezing rain on the roadways is rare, in my experience (talking about NYC and immediate suburbs within a 20 mile radius).  Freezing drizzle is probably worse since it provides a thin glaze.  Freezing rain can actually "wash itself away", especially on busier roadways.  Of course, there are a lot of factors involved, but unless the air temperature is more than a few degrees below freezing, it usually doesn't impact the area (on roadways) aforementioned. Freezing rain is usually more of a concern on sidewalks, powerlines and tree branches.  Areas farther north and west, especially hilly terrain, is a different story.  

[Dark Star]

NWS Upton now backs down to a Winter Weather Advisory.  They must be reading this board.

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

NWS Upton now backs down to a Winter Weather Advisory.  They must be reading this board.

Huh?  No obvious changes - care to fill us in?

[The 4 Seasons]

Heres our map from yesterday, havent changed it. Probably be the final call unless something shifts significantly overnight

 

[winterwarlock]

well if the gfs is right, its a non event for me

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

NWS Upton now backs down to a Winter Weather Advisory.  They must be reading this board.

Yeah they did however they kept the snowfall the same at 3 to 5 for Manhattan