Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.

That could be my house this time just north of 287 which would be a nice change for once.  287 used to be the battleground but lately its moved up to say, rte. 35.

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.

Yea, IMO New England is the place to be for all snow tomorrow night. Agree with Mt. Holly. I think the entire metro area, including north and west goes to sleet after some snow initially. It may be a real extended ping fest tomorrow night and I doubt we ever go over to all rain. Something like a 1-3, 2-4 north and west of the city for the combined snow and sleet totals. This seems to always happen in our area at the last minute and New England cashes in with SWFE’s 

@LibertyBell Yes. They probably aren’t getting more than 6-8 inches of snow in New England because this storm is going to have the jets on tomorrow night and Sunday morning. It’s flying too fast to produce much more than that. There’s screaming zonal flow 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.

I strongly doubt even Boston gets more than 6 inches out of this.

6 inches is probably the top end for this storm for anyone.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, IMO New England is the place to be for all snow tomorrow night. Agree with Mt. Holly. I think the entire metro area, including north and west goes to sleet after some snow initially. It may be a real extended ping fest tomorrow night and I doubt we ever go over to all rain. Something like a 1-3, 2-4 north and west of the city for the combined snow and sleet totals. This seems to always happen in our area at the last minute and New England cashes in with SWFE’s 

Even all snow areas (like Boston) won't get more than 6.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, IMO New England is the place to be for all snow tomorrow night. Agree with Mt. Holly. I think the entire metro area, including north and west goes to sleet after some snow initially. It may be a real extended ping fest tomorrow night and I doubt we ever go over to all rain. Something like a 1-3, 2-4 north and west of the city for the combined snow and sleet totals. This seems to always happen in our area at the last minute and New England cashes in with SWFE’s 

@LibertyBell Yes. They probably aren’t getting more than 6-8 inches of snow in New England because this storm is going to have the jets on tomorrow night and Sunday morning. It’s flying too fast to produce much more than that. There’s screaming zonal flow 

Yep, thats what I'm thinking too, the flow is entirely too fast for double digit totals for anyone.

Something to think about for next week too, if we even get a *direct hit* from that storm, which we may not.

 

[winterwarlock]

the hrrr is a later start but in and out in basically 7 hours

 

0.4 to .5 of precip but the snow maps are pretty interesting at 3-5 for many

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR still seems too cold aloft much like the last event, its even got snow down to like Trenton, the slow evolution was shown on the Euro too

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

the hrrr is a later start but in and out in basically 7 hours

 

0.4 to .5 of precip but the snow maps are pretty interesting at 3-5 for many

Yup, the GFS type thump and go of 3-5" for the area is very possible, with material snow falling in 4-5 hours

[MJO812]

[steve392]

What's the time frame for precip to start in NYC vicinity? 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It looks like it did for yesterday morning's event... at least when it was outside 12 hours.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

What's the time frame for precip to start in NYC vicinity? 

Likely 23-00Z

[Northof78]

 

NAM jumps onto the Thump party (at least 3-6")

[GaWx]

 Any opinion about the chances of a flight being canceled flying from NYC ~8AM Sunday? Should she go ahead and try to see if she can reschedule for a few hours later instead of keeping her flight? She can probably leave as late as ~noon from NYC on Sunday and still make her trip. She’s flying to ATL. Thanks in advance.

Edit: Never mind. She’s leaving from Boston at 7AM Sun, not NYC.

[Northof78]

NAM through hour 33, all snow north of TTN....4-8"

[donsutherland1]

The 12z NAM was an outlier with a transition from the primary to secondary storm that dry slotted NYC. The 18z NAM has abandoned that idea and moved more into line with the other guidance.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

 

NAM jumps onto the Thump party (at least 3-6")

Yep more precip in the cold.

[Northof78]

Close to 1" QPF for N/C NJ and 0.75" for almost all of the region, close to 100% snow for Rt.80 N and 75% snow Rt.78 N, this verbatim is very impactful storm with warning levels

[steve392]

Just got NWS update, went from winter storm warltch to advisory. :/

[Snowlover11]

Winter storm warning 5-7” of snow, light glaze of ice.

[MJO812]

WWA for NYC

3-5 inches with some ice

[Northof78]

NWS going with 3-5" for southern 1/3 of region and 5" - 7" for northern 2/3...reasonable with some upside potential (NAM) 

[cleetussnow]

Warning here 5 to 7 same as snowlover.  Hoping 7 - likely meaning less liquid/sleet.  My snow blower hates the heavy stuff and so does my back.  

 

[wishcast_hater]

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 10 inches. WHERE...Portions of northwestern Connecticut including all of Litchfield County, western Massachusetts including all of Berkshire County, and the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley, Greater Capital Region, and the Taconics in eastern New York.

[Snowlover11]

figures I wont be home for it.

[psv88]

Point and click says 3-7 inches here…yet WWA. Ok

[RU848789]

Wow, NAM-ed in some ways by the 18Z NAM, with double the QPF and a lot more snow than the past few runs for most, plus a lot of sleet and a bit of ZR but very little rain. Will take. Verbatim, for my house in the Edison area, that's 1" of QPF consisting of about 4" of pure snow (0.4" QPF) on the front end, followed by 2" of sleet (5" of equivalent 10:1 snow or 0.5" QPF, as sleet comparing the TT/Pivotal maps) and maybe 0.1" of ZR, so ~10" of 10:1 snow condensed down to maybe 5" of 5:1 slush (the ZR will just be absorbed into the pack). While I'd love 10" of snow, where do I sign up for this. Funny having to use 4 graphics for a forecast...

 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Point and click says 3-7 inches here…yet WWA. Ok

Weathergun on the other forum was saying how central to eastern LI might do better than western areas due to the track of the low. You might be okay.

[EastonSN+]

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weathergun on the other forum was saying how central to eastern LI might do better than western areas due to the track of the low. You might be okay.

I really hope we don’t get the sleet forecasted. Terrible to deal with