Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

That west to east banding across central NJ reminds me of what happened last Feb 16 -17 storm......

Yes that was a fun storm and a fun week of weather with two nice snowstorms.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Also the mid level 850 low track. When that goes NW of you, S mid level winds are driving warm air in. With these kind of storms you hope a lot of overrunning precip can happen first before the warm air arrives. You want those to redevelop south of you to keep cold air in. 

whats causing all these bad 850 storm tracks? Is that also because of the se ridge being too strong?

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Finally found this, which really shows well the amounts of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for the 12Z NAM for selected locations. For Newark, it has 0.54" total precip, which includes 1.7" of snow (assumes 10:1 ratio), about 1.1" of sleet (from 0.37" of sleet as liquid and using a 3:1 ratio) and no freezing rain or plain rain.

For Philly, it has 0.69" total precip, which includes 1.4" of snow, about 0.3" of sleet (from 0.11" of sleet as liquid and using a 3:1 ratio), but it also shows 0.42" of freezing rain (and no plain rain), which would be just terrible. Rule of thumb is maybe 1/2 to 2/3 of freezing rain precip actually accretes on sub-32F surfaces (some runs off, especially if precip is moderate to heavy; drizzle accumulates much better), meaning maybe 0.25" of ice accretion, which is close to the 0.17" of accumulated freezing rain from the NWS forecast.

Biggest take home message is no plain rain, so this will be quite impactful even for areas south of 78 which might get a lot less pure snow, as sleet and freezing rain are as bad or worse. Even AC is only showing half of the 0.6" of total precip as plain rain. Of course, this is just the NAM model verbatim and the actual outcome might be much different as per the NWS with more snow and less sleet/freezing rain for most.

https://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KACY&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

 

what does it show for JFK? any plain rain down this way or all frozen?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC is even seeing a pronounced warm nose now, it turned it to sleet all the way up to High Point State Park on this latest run. Considering that the globals are very likely underdoing it, can we completely discount models like the high res NAM-NEST? I normally ignore the NAM suite but in special situations like this with a warm nose, it can sometimes actually score a rare coup. FWIW, the extended HRRR and the SREFs are similar to the NAM-NEST as well

 

Link to the NAM-NEST in case anyone wants to look: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/

I wish they'd keep the NAM up to date, it has value in situations like this and also in el nino strong southern stream patterns (like January 2016 for example.)

 

[snowman19]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I wish they'd keep the NAM up to date, it has value in situations like this and also in el nino strong southern stream patterns (like January 2016 for example.)

 

Pretty much the only time the NAM (especially the “high res” NAM/NAM-NEST) excels is in events that have a warm nose, like the one coming up this weekend. It’s the rare occasion where it can score a coup 

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC is even seeing a pronounced warm nose now, it turned it to sleet all the way up to High Point State Park on this latest run. Considering that the globals are very likely underdoing it, can we completely discount models like the high res NAM-NEST? I normally ignore the NAM suite but in special situations like this with a warm nose, it can sometimes actually score a rare coup. FWIW, the extended HRRR and the SREFs are similar to the NAM-NEST as well

 

Link to the NAM-NEST in case anyone wants to look: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/

Honestly the 3km NAM does not get sleet that far north really, it more or less HPN/BDR snow all event.  It does get sleet further north west because they are under the WAA influence before the transfer, we could see a case here where somewhere like Orient Point does better than say Morristown

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly the 3km NAM does not get sleet that far north really, it more or less HPN/BDR snow all event.  It does get sleet further north west because they are under the WAA influence before the transfer, we could see a case here where somewhere like Orient Point does better than say Morristown

I've seen situations like that, even more notably there was a storm in early April 1996 (before the big one) when Montauk got 3 inches of snow and the rest of us only changed to nonaccumulating snow at the end.

 

[Allsnow]

Euro bumped a bit north…

 

Warmer. 2 inch line now up to Staten Island 

[Allsnow]

[BoulderWX]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

It’s the primary driving north to Buffalo before the transfer. Anytime that’s depicted, we ping. 

100% - it’s starting to shape up like a decent ice/sleet storm for our area 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It is what is is. 1-3 sounds good.

Can't take the models seriously passed 5 days .

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It is what is is. 1-3 sounds good.

Can't take the models seriously passed 5 days .

Yup. Oh well. Still a great event  for north and west crew. 
 

im out on this one 

[BoulderWX]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z HREF:

Looks reasonable 

[mob1]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It is what is is. 1-3 sounds good.

Can't take the models seriously passed 5 days .

Even 3 is likely a pipe dream for us. Even 1 seems like a stretch. I'm expecting something similar to what we had yesterday (maybe half an inch of slop). 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It is what is is. 1-3 sounds good.

Can't take the models seriously passed 5 days .

Ukie is showing a nice thump for late tomorrow. As usual it's a very close call. Could go either way as far as getting several inches of snow or more mixing. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Ukie is showing a nice thump for late tomorrow. As usual it's a very close call. Could go either way as far as getting several inches of snow or more mixing. 

Euro also

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is what is is. 1-3 sounds good.

Can't take the models seriously passed 5 days .

I’m not so sure this is an all snow event even for places like Bergen, Rockland, Westchester. I think they go over to sleet too. This is probably about the only time you will ever hear me say this, but because of this warm nose setup, the 3K NAM may be the way to go tomorrow. The globals aren’t going to pick up on the warm nose strength/location until it’s too late

[Dark Star]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly the 3km NAM does not get sleet that far north really, it more or less HPN/BDR snow all event.  It does get sleet further north west because they are under the WAA influence before the transfer, we could see a case here where somewhere like Orient Point does better than say Morristown

It's not sounding optimal for mostly snow, yet the NWS (forecast discussion) is still calling for just that, mostly snow, with a few cautions.  

[MJO812]

Ukie is lovely 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is lovely 

Remember it's usually too cold aloft

[Northof78]

Final Forecast:

NYC/EWR- 3.0" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
SMQ- 3.5" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
MMU- 4.5" (about 70/30 snow/sleet)
HPN- 5.5" (about 80/20 snow sleet)

There is 1"-2"upside potential to these numbers depending on how different waves interact, thump timing, cold intrusion (now occuring), etc. with little downside potential from these totals. 

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

19 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Final Forecast:

NYC/EWR- 3.0" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
SMQ- 3.5" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
MMU- 4.5" (about 70/30 snow/sleet)
HPN- 5.5" (about 80/20 snow sleet)

There is 1"-2"upside potential to these numbers depending on how different waves interact, thump timing, cold intrusion (now occuring), etc. with little downside potential from these totals. 

 

 

What's the call for KFWN?

[RU848789]

Looks like the NWS-Philly is going with the sleetier/icier forecast for almost everyone, given the advisories below with snow amounts decreased due to sleet and with freezing rain of 0.1-0.2" for most.  For most of CNJ, where I live, 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of 10:1 snow on all surfaces.  This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and probably even south of 80 if these advisories are correct; wonder if Upton will follow suit.  Also, nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that.  But who knows, maybe the snow will do better this time than yesterday.  

Edit: added in the newly updated NWS-Philly snow/ice maps, showing the significant deceases in snowfall forecasts for everyone, but people should know that the decreased snow will be replaced by sleet, not rain, so the frozen mass on the ground will be about the same and the amount of freezing rain forecast hasn't changed much (and that will add to the frozen mass on the ground).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

[Northof78]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What's the call for KFWN?

Around 5" (70 snow/30 sleet)

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Final Forecast:

NYC/EWR- 3.0" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
SMQ- 3.5" (about 50/50 snow-sleet)
MMU- 4.5" (about 70/30 snow/sleet)
HPN- 5.5" (about 80/20 snow sleet)

There is 1"-2"upside potential to these numbers depending on how different waves interact, thump timing, cold intrusion (now occuring), etc. with little downside potential from these totals. 

 

 

I'm a tad south of you, and these setups aren't usually good. Frankly i do better when it starts as heavy snow then transitions to rain; if there is a warm nose the sleet takes over pretty fast and we get a lot of sleet. None of these systems have packed a lot of moisture for some of us this year, so we may be looking at an inch give or take of mostly sleet. Which I'd rather not even have. I find it more treacherous than plain snow.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like the NWS-Philly is going with the sleetier/icier forecast for almost everyone, given the advisories below with snow amounts decreased due to sleet and with freezing rain of 0.1-0.2" for most.  For most of CNJ, where I live, 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of 10:1 snow on all surfaces.  This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and probably even south of 80 if these advisories are correct; wonder if Upton will follow suit.  Also, nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that.  But who knows, maybe the snow will do better this time than yesterday.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

And there you have it; just what I was expecting based on years living in the area. I think they are correct. And, lousy driving conditions. Stay home. In fact, lousy walking conditions. Don't wanna break a hip.

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like the NWS-Philly is going with the sleetier/icier forecast for almost everyone, given the advisories below with snow amounts decreased due to sleet and with freezing rain of 0.1-0.2" for most.  For most of CNJ, where I live, 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of 10:1 snow on all surfaces.  This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and probably even south of 80 if these advisories are correct; wonder if Upton will follow suit.  Also, nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that.  But who knows, maybe the snow will do better this time than yesterday.  

Edit: added in the newly updated NWS-Philly snow/ice maps, showing the significant deceases in snowfall forecasts for everyone, but people should know that the decreased snow will be replaced by sleet, not rain, so the frozen mass on the ground will be about the same and the amount of freezing rain forecast hasn't changed much (and that will add to the frozen mass on the ground).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

Same map further south. They have the same higher accumulations to the north.

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like the NWS-Philly is going with the sleetier/icier forecast for almost everyone, given the advisories below with snow amounts decreased due to sleet and with freezing rain of 0.1-0.2" for most.  For most of CNJ, where I live, 2" of sleet/snow with 0.2" of ice would have the equivalent frozen mass (the freezing rain will be absorbed by the sleet/snow, not melt it) of ~6" of 10:1 snow on all surfaces.  This could be a shitstorm if places get 1/4" of ice accretion as per the NWS and some models which show even more. I think everyone would rather have all snow, but it's looking like a mix for anyone south of 78 and probably even south of 80 if these advisories are correct; wonder if Upton will follow suit.  Also, nothing will melt overnight with temps at or below 32F for most until 9-10 am, so conditions in the morning will likely still be treacherous with 2" or so of snow/sleet then maybe 0.2" of ice on top of that.  But who knows, maybe the snow will do better this time than yesterday.  

Edit: added in the newly updated NWS-Philly snow/ice maps, showing the significant deceases in snowfall forecasts for everyone, but people should know that the decreased snow will be replaced by sleet, not rain, so the frozen mass on the ground will be about the same and the amount of freezing rain forecast hasn't changed much (and that will add to the frozen mass on the ground).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ054-061-062-105-106-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Trenton, Bethlehem,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie,
Chalfont, Allentown, Morrisville, and Easton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
tenths of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ013-020-022-027-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T0700Z/
Western Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Freehold,
and Hammonton
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ055-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T2000Z-250209T1100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Monroe-
Including the cities of Morristown, Washington, Newton, and
Stroudsburg
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
one tenth of an inch.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-080715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.250208T1700Z-250209T1100Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western
Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Moorestown, West Chester,
Oxford, Pottstown, Norristown, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly,
Collegeville, Reading, Media, Glassboro, Lansdale, Pennsville,
Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, and Philadelphia
101 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
tenth and two tenths of an inch.

That’s quite the downgrade. WWA and only 2-4 inches total of snow and sleet for Sussex County, NJ. Can’t say I’m shocked though given what the hi res (3K) NAM, SREFS, extended HRRR and the NBM are showing. If the global models are even showing a substantial warm nose extending north and west of the city at this range, you know it’s going to mean business tomorrow night, since they always underestimate them

[rgwp96]

36 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

What's the call for KFWN?

Mt Holly lowered amounts to 2-4 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s quite the downgrade. WWA and only 2-4 inches total of snow and sleet for Sussex County, NJ. Can’t say I’m shocked though given what the hi res (3K) NAM, SREFS, extended HRRR and the NBM are showing. If the global models are even showing a substantial warm nose extending north and west of the city at this range, you know it’s going to mean business tomorrow night, since they always underestimate them

The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.