Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That storm will be washed away by rain Thursday so doesn't count

To me none of them count because they all melt by summer every year 

[qg_omega]

NAM looks good 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That storm will be washed away by rain Thursday so doesn't count

Take 1 storm at a time and who cares if it gets washed away.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify. 

Shut up dude

The low is also further south with the secondary .

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM looks good 

It's just the nam so one model suite, however as depicted the initial snow band weakens before it gets here then the mixing happens. Long Island sound change over line stay static. 

Let's see what the other models show.

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well parts of Florida are running ahead of NYC 

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Shut up dude

The low is also further south with the secondary .

Careful what you say, nam is great at sniffing out warmth aloft. Dont be surprised if u wake up with <1" of slop.

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify. 

Take a break.

[Northof78]

NAM looks good for roughly 78N (although with a couple different waves of precip, some in S/C Jersey could get similar totals), think 3-5" for most in N NJ outside of 5-7" in NW Jersey and S NY State

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Take a break.

That would be a good hit. Is that Freehold with the big pink blob?

[wishcast_hater]

11 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify. 

Congrats, your the second guy I blocked behind Snowman.

[WestBabylonWeather]

12 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Latest NAM run is a middle finger to nyc. a perfect nyc shaped snow hole. its gonna verify. 

Oh yes, a cringe post. Nice. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Take a break.

I have a question why are Kutchera maps banned from posting? I'm conscious of the fact that it can over inflate in all snow events, however, shouldn't an exception be made for changeover type events since sleet over inflates the 10 to 1 maps? 

I have been using a positive snow depth maps, although they can sometimes be low. They did nail the half an inch for Central Park yesterday. 

[RU848789]

Remember even if the NAM is right (it's not always in these mix situations), it would still be very impactful to have 1-2" of sleet (same mass as 3-6" of snow at 3:1 sleet to liquid ratio vs. standard 10:1 snow to liquid ratios) and some ice on top of that instead of 3-6" of snow (for areas N of 78 currently forecast to get 3-6" of snow), but it certainly won't be as pretty or fun. The Pivotal vs. TT maps show that most of the "snow" on TT is sleet (Pivotal doesn't count sleet); would be nice to have a sleet map...

 

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Take a break.

Genuine question - the output on that map doesn’t look anything close to pivotal. I get different algorithms and sleet/snow being counted but the difference is huge. Any idea why?

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That storm will be washed away by rain Thursday so doesn't count

well whatever happens after it stops doesn't matter because the other option is it getting polluted by road chemicals.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Take 1 storm at a time and who cares if it gets washed away.

Exactly, thats no different from it getting melted by 60 degrees the next day.

 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have a question why are Kutchera maps banned from posting? I'm conscious of the fact that it can over inflate in all snow events, however, shouldn't an exception be made for changeover type events since sleet over inflates the 10 to 1 maps? 

I have been using a positive snow depth maps, although they can sometimes be low. They did nail the half an inch for Central Park yesterday. 

Honestly…i think RU or someone posted about it recently as well, but its easier for anyone with even basic knowledge to just have the 10:1 maps and adjust from there, vs the kuchera which tends to over-inflate totals. Better off looking at the actual just precip panels and compare it to the soundings, and do some basic math to work it out yourself. I only posted that map in reference to the nonsense about the nam showing a nyc snow hole. If we are going to interpret model output thats one thing…but the actual model output isnt subjective. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Honestly…i think RU or someone posted about it recently as well, but its easier for anyone with even basic knowledge to just have the 10:1 maps and adjust from there, vs the kuchera which tends to over-inflate totals. Better off looking at the actual just precip panels and compare it to the soundings, and do some basic math to work it out yourself. I only posted that map in reference to the nonsense about the nam showing a nyc snow hole. If we are going to interpret model output thats one thing…but the actual model output isnt subjective. 

Well the snow hole means its sniffing out a warm nose near the city no? of course its unlikely theres a hole in the actual precip wall its just more mix.

[BxEngine]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Well the snow hole means its sniffing out a warm nose near the city no? of course its unlikely theres a hole in the actual precip wall its just more mix.

Interpreting the model isnt the same as the objective output the model shows. If there is a warm nose that the nam is snowing only over the city, post the soundings. Dont just say there is a snow hole when there clearly isnt on that specific model. 

[BxEngine]

And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the posting ability.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Genuine question - the output on that map doesn’t look anything close to pivotal. I get different algorithms and sleet/snow being counted but the difference is huge. Any idea why?

Because as described in the title it includes sleet

[Allsnow]

Nams are colder but really lacking the precipitation intensity initially. North and west you wlll be fine 

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Well the snow hole means its sniffing out a warm nose near the city no? of course its unlikely theres a hole in the actual precip wall its just more mix.

Haha but there wasn’t on the NAM…. Why do you keep posting garbage and saying this is a non event that is just plain false. Don’t worry if you keep it up @Rjayor @BxEnginewill just limit your posting ability. 

[winterwarlock]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Honestly…i think RU or someone posted about it recently as well, but its easier for anyone with even basic knowledge to just have the 10:1 maps and adjust from there, vs the kuchera which tends to over-inflate totals. Better off looking at the actual just precip panels and compare it to the soundings, and do some basic math to work it out yourself. I only posted that map in reference to the nonsense about the nam showing a nyc snow hole. If we are going to interpret model output thats one thing…but the actual model output isnt subjective. 

Kutchera maps are appropriate with this system 

 

Pivotal wildly inflating totals

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Well the snow hole means its sniffing out a warm nose near the city no? of course its unlikely theres a hole in the actual precip wall its just more mix.

It's more complicated. If one looks at the 500 mb verical velocity maps, there's a large area of no or poor lift. Where temperatures are marginal, one can see sleet or no precipitation while lift is poor or non-existent. Where it's sufficiently cold, there can be light snow or flurries. This can happen during the transition from the primary to the secondary storm. A long transition can lead to a prolonged period where there is little or no precipitation. The depiction is from the 12z NAM.

 

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the posting ability.

agreed - this is an interesting event with watches for many - maybe should put strict limits of number of posts allowed daily for new members and everyone should only be allowed a certain number of posts a day.........so they don't hog the forum take a look at their total number of posts and see who is way over the average number considering how long they have been here

[romba]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Shut up dude

The low is also further south with the secondary .

careful, the way things are heading that guy might be the next mod  @Rjay

[BoulderWX]

I know it’s coming but surprised Mt Holly hasn’t put out a WWA yet. The sleet potential alone would probably warrant one. 

[kat5hurricane]

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

And if you say its gonna miss or not a big deal, then just move on. For some here its a decent weekend snow event. Repeating yourself in numerous threads saying non event is gonna be the end of the posting ability.

Thank you, it's a giant whinefest in here which drowns out the quality posts and makes the thread virtually unreadable.