Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

All the models except the euro hasa very snowy super bowl Sunday morning.  Definitely trending colder on guidance 

Euro a tick colder at 6z. Icon is mostly snow.

[SnoSki14]

Nice cold trends on the GFS with this one

[allgame830]

What’s the QPF output on most models? Just from the look of maps looks to be a decent moderate hit. 

[Stormlover74]

55 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What’s the QPF output on most models? Just from the look of maps looks to be a decent moderate hit. 

.5 to .75"

[allgame830]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

.5 to .75"

That’s pretty good! I’ll take that any day. 

[Allsnow]

AI continues to get colder for this storm. Solid thump for nyc 

[Dark Star]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI continues to get colder for this storm. Solid thump for nyc 

We are holding you to it. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Dark Star said:

We are holding you to it. 

I can handle the expectations 

[Allsnow]

Icon is 3-6 before a changeover 

similar to gfs with a early secondary vs euro 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon is 3-6 before a changeover 

similar to gfs with a early secondary vs euro 

Icon looks all snow in NYC

[snowman19]

I’m not doubting the EURO/EPS this close in. I don’t care what the other inferior models like the ICON and UKMET are showing. This is the EURO/EPS “deadly” range. And the GFS/GEFS snow algorithms are having big issues with snow output, specifically showing sleet and freezing rain as snow. See this:

[MJO812]

Flatter

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Flatter

Earlier transfer leads to a colder outcome 

 

 

[NittanyWx]

The only thing giving me pause about this storm (and it's a big pause) is the 850 low.  Screaming southerlies mean warm nose aloft is almost a guarantee to cause some mixing issues for pretty much all of the CWA.  I like the front end thump potential and you can hold off some of that warm nose with decent lift.

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The only thing giving me pause about this storm (and it's a big pause) is the 850 low.  Screaming southerlies mean warm nose aloft is almost a guarantee to cause some mixing issues for pretty much all of the CWA.  I like the front end thump potential and you can hold off some of that warm nose with decent lift.

I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm.  There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer.  This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.

[MJO812]

Ukie is mostly snow 

[NittanyWx]

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm.  There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer.  This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.

They'll be stacking up a decent event Mass to 'Dacks to southern Greens/Whites

[Allsnow]

Euro coming in much flatter for the weekend. I would expect it not to be so amped this run 

[wdrag]

WPC ensembles. continue increasing probs for >.25" frozen  I95 northwestward (see the midday attached).  I dont profess anything LI.... 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro coming in much flatter for the weekend. I would expect it not to be so amped this run 

Nice Thump

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro coming in much flatter for the weekend. I would expect it not to be so amped this run 

obvious deamping trend here

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro coming in much flatter for the weekend. I would expect it not to be so amped this run 

Yep, its cave has begun. The EURO of old it’s not anymore

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, its cave has begun. The EURO of old it’s not anymore

The medium range deamping is nice to see but I worry about a trend amplifying trend with this inside 48 hours 

[Allsnow]

EPS mean increased to 3 to 4 inches 

 

Higher total just north of the city and into SNE 

[Allsnow]

The idv have some great hits for the metro Saturday night 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

WPC ensembles. continue increasing probs for >.25" frozen  I95 northwestward (see the midday attached).  I dont profess anything LI.... 

looks like 50%+ for all of Long Island too Walt

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The idv have some great hits for the metro Saturday night 

Really nice shift 

[Allsnow]

The euro AI continues the trend and is now all snow for the metro 

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z NAM now is in range with snow by Sat evening

[Franklin0529]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro AI continues the trend and is now all snow for the metro 

This storm is trending great for us.