Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[wdrag]

This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance.  

QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence.

It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. 

Ensembles include the midnight 2/3 WPC D6 outlook confidence of >1/4" melted water equivalent snow sleet. (blue is greater than 50%, pretty good for D6. Other ensembles 24 hr snowfall (10 to 1 ratio), an ensemble that only shows positive snow depth change, and an ensemble probability of >0.10 qpf that is ice.  This usually shrinks a bit as we draw closer to T0.  752A Mon 2/3/25

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Few inches turning to a mix or rain for many areas on gfs.

[RockawayRowdies]

Hopefully all gone before folks drive for Superbowl parties..

[Allsnow]

Euro 2-4 with the most in central nj 

[MJO812]

Gfs is further south with more snow for the area

[MJO812]

Gefs  further south 

[MJO812]

Euro also got colder for this event 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also got colder for this event 

Yes, thump ends up being more of a central jersey event but it will move around 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, thump ends up being more of a central jersey event but it will move around 

Eps also south 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also south 

The euro AI has been doing so well inside 5 days 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The euro AI has been doing so well inside 5 days 

It has been solid inside 5 days.  Very impressive  .

[wdrag]

NWS Day 5 probs are increasing for advisory-possible warning amounts of snow-ice. Use the legend. 

[SnowGoose69]

Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.