TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM Welp no work for me Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 VAZ028-031-WVZ053-055-502-050400- /O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0001.250206T0000Z-250206T1700Z/ Frederick VA-Clarke-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant- 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between two and three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...In Virginia, Clarke and Frederick VA Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Hardy, and Jefferson Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow begins Wednesday evening. Precipitation mainly becomes a steady freezing rain Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm Thursday morning transitioning freezing rain over to rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 MDZ001-003-501-502-VAZ507-WVZ050>052-501-503-504-050400- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.250205T1800Z-250206T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0001.250206T0000Z-250206T1700Z/ Garrett-Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between two and three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow begins Wednesday evening. Precipitation mainly becomes a steady freezing rain Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm Thursday morning transitioning freezing rain over to rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 VAZ025>027-029-030-050400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.250206T0000Z-250206T1700Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren- 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Page, Shenandoah, Warren, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow begins Wednesday evening. Precipitation mainly becomes a steady freezing rain Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm Thursday morning transitioning freezing rain over to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ040-501-505-506-526-050400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.250206T0200Z-250206T1700Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one tenth and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow begins Wednesday evening. Precipitation mainly becomes a steady freezing rain Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm Thursday morning transitioning freezing rain over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ038-039-050-051-053-054-502- 527-050400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.250206T0200Z-250206T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Greene-Madison-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 249 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and central, northern, and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow begins Wednesday evening. Precipitation mainly becomes a steady freezing rain Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm Thursday morning transitioning freezing rain over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM looks like 12z might of been an off run. 18z back colder for the nam. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM 10 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: looks like 12z might of been an off run. 18z back colder for the nam. Eh not sure about that. Continues to look drier and hence less impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Euro is like...what ice event for the metros. And where it's below freezing, there is no precip through 3z NAM camp seems to be coming around to the idea of a later start too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:46 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM RGEM with a little burst of snow out this way to kick it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Tuesday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:00 PM NAM camp seems to be coming around to the idea of a later start too.And most of precip north. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Tuesday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:08 PM I’d like to order a Thursday morning delay, please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:10 PM 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM with a little burst of snow out this way to kick it off. Disaster solution lol. .5” zr for areas and over an inch of sleet north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM Euro caved much icer 18z for favored areas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: Euro caved much icer 18z for favored areas would be icier more east too but this storm keeps getting pushed back several hours - like 6am start time on the EURO means nada in the cities. Don't care too much about losing an ice storm but a little annoying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:43 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: would be icier more east too but this storm keeps getting pushed back several hours - like 6am start time on the EURO means nada in the cities. Don't care too much about losing an ice storm but a little annoying Well there’s the random snow band lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Tuesday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:44 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: would be icier more east too but this storm keeps getting pushed back several hours - like 6am start time on the EURO means nada in the cities. Don't care too much about losing an ice storm but a little annoying Agree with that but a later start time (as long as there’s a “base layer” by sunrise) also increases impacts and the chance I get school off so… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted Tuesday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:57 PM 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Agree with that but a later start time (as long as there’s a “base layer” by sunrise) also increases impacts and the chance I get school off so… words spoken by every great meteorologist at some point in their teens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM WARNING A 45 degree rainfall event will strike large parts of the region on Wednesday into Thursday. Prepare yourself with an umbrella and raingear. Surfaces may become wet. Dogs may shake off excess water inside residences and places of business. These impacts can be reduced by ... etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 AM 0Z HRRR pretty icy. Most of the precip up through Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM 0Z HRRR pretty icy. Most of the precip up through Maryland. Precipitation out of dc metro area around 6 though. Probably allows schools to just go with a delay rather than a closure. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 01:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:52 AM A couple of important points, from a model perspective: - The only modeling system that actually tracks and accumulates freezing rain every model time step is RAP/HRRR - For all other models, the various sites are making assumptions that the forecasted precip type on the hour applies to the entire hour. This is ok if they have hourly output from the model, but if it's 3-hourly (or even less frequent), it's pretty inaccurate - For most of the U.S. models, the precip type output shows freezing rain if the falling hydrometeors are rain, and the skin temp is at or below 32. So, the plots of "accumulated freezing rain" are tallying ice the same whether it's 31.9 or 26 - The FRAM stuff is better, but it's very much tied to rates and wind, and in my mind, it accumulates too generously when temps are marginal. - ZR at 31 degrees is very different if it's been in the 20s and temps are rising as opposed to being in the mid 30's with falling temps. None of these ZR products really account for that. So, even if you see big amounts of freezing rain on maps for the areas around DC, it's critical to assess the temperature trends. With temps in the mid 30s during the day falling to 31 or 32, I'm really skeptical about icing potential. The precip falling at night probably helps a bit, and maybe an initial burst of sleet cools surfaces enough, but the overall setup argues for the real icing potential to be well north and northwest of the city. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM Hrrr says here take some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 AM I'll take 1" of sleet. Will probably look good Thursday morning with ice coated on everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 03:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:44 AM GFS with the light icing...comparable to 18z EDIT...actually a little wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM GFS with the light icing...comparable to 18z EDIT...actually a little wetter.That’s the last model to use for ice stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM Just now, Ji said: That’s the last model to use for ice stuff Probably. Just throwing it out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 04:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:35 AM The Canadian suite smokes us - maybe too much precip to accrete - only hanging around 30/31. Will be interesting to track temps tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted yesterday at 04:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 AM The Canadian suite smokes us - maybe too much precip to accrete - only hanging around 30/31. Will be interesting to track temps tomorrow.Yea id say that seems to be just a tad overdone. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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