Kmlwx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:09 PM, stormtracker said: That’s actually warning criteria down here? Anybody? I think so. Expand Is that map using FRAM or just QPF falling as ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:39 PM, yoda said: If we were taking it verbatim, yes it's warning criteria Expand Ok. Looks like a lock that we should take it verbatim with temps during the day tomm being above freezing and a marginal airmass of like 31-32. Ice ice baby! Get those watches out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:41 PM, Kmlwx said: Is that map using FRAM or just QPF falling as ZR? Expand Not. sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:41 PM, Kmlwx said: Is that map using FRAM or just QPF falling as ZR? Expand Don’t think WxBell has FRAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Thanks to Randy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12z mesos don’t seem as impactful to my eye as previous runs. Weaker or nonexistent with that narrow snow band tomorrow and a tick warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:46 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z mesos don’t seem as impactful to my eye as previous runs. Weaker or nonexistent with that narrow snow band tomorrow and a tick warmer. Expand We are going to get some ice on trees and slick sidewalks pre-dawn because it is precipitating overnight, but agree that the impact will be minimal in the metro areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:50 PM, MN Transplant said: We are going to get some ice on trees and slick sidewalks pre-dawn because it is precipitating overnight, but agree that the impact will be minimal in the metro areas. Expand Definitely expecting just a glaze of ice on my balcony near Union Station. May have to venture out to the fake trees and grass in my building’s courtyard to get my ice fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Verbatim NAM has about a quarter inch of ice (FRAM estimate) by mid morning Thursday up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Rgem is a sleet bomb first north then zr city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Also thinking the impacts will be moderate (maybe major) in the favored far NW places, especially in the valleys. Here? Maybe more like a nice glaze on trees to pretty things up for a couple of hours, and then it'll melt off pretty quick. Still be careful out there, all it takes is one little slick spot to break a hip. Thinking 2 hour delay for Fairfax Co. Loudoun will be a tough call because we span way out west towards the blue ridge where things could get bad in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:10 PM, TSSN+ said: Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Rgem is a sleet bomb first north then zr city Expand I think RGEM did pretty well last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:15 PM, Solution Man said: I think RGEM did pretty well last storm? Expand It sort of did and then decided at the last minute dc would get 6-7 inches which was obviously very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:16 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It sort of did and then decided at the last minute dc would get 6-7 inches which was obviously very wrong. Expand Thanks, couldn't remember...so many models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:10 PM, Terpeast said: Also thinking the impacts will be moderate (maybe major) in the favored far NW places, especially in the valleys. Here? Maybe more like a nice glaze on trees to pretty things up for a couple of hours, and then it'll melt off pretty quick. Still be careful out there, all it takes is one little slick spot to break a hip. Thinking 2 hour delay for Fairfax Co. Loudoun will be a tough call because we span way out west towards the blue ridge where things could get bad in the morning. Expand Im really hoping for my own sake that Fx county decides to completely cancel, but going to need to have stuff like 0z and 6z come true and not 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:05 PM, mappy said: Verbatim NAM has about a quarter inch of ice (FRAM estimate) by mid morning Thursday up here. Expand Do you have a FRAM map by chance? Sure looks like the M/D crew could be in for a rough morning commute on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:10 PM, Terpeast said: Also thinking the impacts will be moderate (maybe major) in the favored far NW places, especially in the valleys. Here? Maybe more like a nice glaze on trees to pretty things up for a couple of hours, and then it'll melt off pretty quick. Still be careful out there, all it takes is one little slick spot to break a hip. Thinking 2 hour delay for Fairfax Co. Loudoun will be a tough call because we span way out west towards the blue ridge where things could get bad in the morning. Expand Agreed. Loudoun, to me, seems they would make the safety call. Some of the roads near the BR can be bad in just rain! That would be why I could see them getting called. Also, I could see watches raised and then lowered to Advisories as needed. But I do realize there is a cost to over concern on tax dollars and plans for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS still insistent and colder than 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:45 PM, stormtracker said: GFS still insistent and colder than 6z Expand Yeah gfs went opposite of the mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:49 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah gfs went opposite of the mesos Expand Which? The Nam? Cause rgem was def icier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs with sleet city pa line north and zr beat down pa line south to jus north of dc. Has like .6-.8” sleet and .2-.3” zr in mine and psu land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:30 PM, paxpatriot said: Do you have a FRAM map by chance? Sure looks like the M/D crew could be in for a rough morning commute on Thursday. Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:56 PM, TSSN+ said: Gfs with sleet city pa line north and zr beat down pa line south to jus north of dc. Has like .6-.8” sleet and .2-.3” zr in mine and psu land. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:00 PM, mappy said: Expand Honestly I think this plus a little bit of sleet would be enough to even get the metros in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS model was too cold for first event, I think? Northern areas really underperformed and there was less snowfall due to warmer temps. I think the ice is being overdone by gfs. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:03 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Honestly I think this plus a little bit of sleet would be enough to even get the metros in trouble. Expand If it happens verbatim, yes. Not sure it will though. Big ice events on models don’t always pan out as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:06 PM, mappy said: If it happens verbatim, yes. Not sure it will though. Big ice events on models don’t always pan out as advertised. Expand freezing rain at 30-32 degrees is like wet snow at 34-36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:11 PM, Ji said: freezing rain at 30-32 degrees is like wet snow at 34-36 Expand somebody will still bust their ass though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:15 PM, Solution Man said: I think RGEM did pretty well last storm? Expand About the only one that kept snow total for DC proper around an inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Low 60s today in dc metro. And accumulating ice over night on Wednesday? I am doubtful of any impacts. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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