February 5-6 Sir Mix A Lot

[TSSN+]

25 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Low 60s today in dc metro. And accumulating ice over night on Wednesday? I am doubtful of any impacts.


.

When will people ever learn lol. 

[clskinsfan]

UKIE sleety up front then scattered showers. I would prefer that in all honesty. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

If it happens verbatim, yes. Not sure it will though. Big ice events on models don’t always pan out as advertised. 

Yup...Ugly antecedent airmass, 31 degrees....not enthused at all about this one.

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup...Ugly antecedent airmass, 31 degrees....not enthused at all about this one.

I’m not expecting a quarter inch or more up here either. Icy sure, probably enough to delay school, but not a larger issue. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m not expecting a quarter inch or more up here either. Icy sure, probably enough to delay school, but not a larger issue. 

Yeah, you're def in a prime location.  Not sure it'll be huge up your way either, but it'll def be way more interesting up your way.

[DarthHokie]

51 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Low 60s today in dc metro. And accumulating ice over night on Wednesday? I am doubtful of any impacts.


.

Lol.  Ive scene it go from a 70 degree day to 6 inches of snow following day.  Early morning prior to sunrise will have impacts.  My elementary kids get picked up for bus at 645am

[TSSN+]

Gfs shows 25 tonight here, 33 for high tomorrow and then 28-30 during the icing which is mainly overnight to early morning so less solar radiation. But guess we will see. I’m expecting it to be pretty icy. Either a lot of sleet or zr. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, you're def in a prime location.  Not sure it'll be huge up your way either, but it'll def be way more interesting up your way.

Last noteworthy ice storm up here was early Feb 2014. Over a quarter inch, no power, lots of tree damage. Ill pass on all that

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, DarthHokie said:

Lol.  Ive scene it go from a 70 degree day to 6 inches of snow following day.  Early morning prior to sunrise will have impacts.  My elementary kids get picked up for bus at 645am

Damn, that's almost worse than my knew when I meant new.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Last noteworthy ice storm up here was early Feb 2014. Over a quarter inch, no power, lots of tree damage. Ill pass on all that

I don't disagree.   I'm less prone to power outages down here.

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Last noteworthy ice storm up here was early Feb 2014. Over a quarter inch, no power, lots of tree damage. Ill pass on all that

Feb 7, 2018 dropped 0.75” of freezing rain here.  Brought down large trees.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't disagree.   I'm less prone to power outages down here.

If i didn't have a generator, i would be out of power once a month. Someone farts by me and the power goes out. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If i didn't have a generator, i would be out of power once a month. Someone farts by me and the power goes out. 

Ah sorry man, my girl made chili. 

[stormtracker]

Euro is like...what ice event for the metros.  And where it's below freezing, there is no precip through 3z

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Low 60s today in dc metro. And accumulating ice over night on Wednesday? I am doubtful of any impacts.


.

Understand that it’s low 60’s  for 3-4 hours. That does not prohibit anything 12-24 hours later 

[stormtracker]

Ok, Euro has light precip and sub freezing for like one 3 hour panel before temps go above freezing for the metros

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok, Euro has light precip and sub freezing for like one 3 hour panel before temps go above freezing for the metros

Better than nothing. 

[H2O]

If one model shows ice that the one VDOT believes. Full on brine fest for roads today

[clskinsfan]

Euro actually has decent CAD for the favored areas. 

[jewell2188]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

If one model shows ice that the one VDOT believes. Full on brine fest for roads today

Have already called all 8 of my trucks out tomorrow night, 11pm. Have to burn that budget somehow. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro is a tick colder but also drier. 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
206 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-050815-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.250206T0200Z-250206T1400Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Denton, Easton, Millville, Dover,
Pennsville, Centreville, Wilmington, and Chestertown
206 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Feb 7, 2018 dropped 0.75” of freezing rain here.  Brought down large trees.

Ugh, that sucks. No thanks to all that mess. 

[yoda]

Ice storm warnings coming from LWX shortly

[WxUSAF]

Based on their AFD, I think LWX has issued WWAs, but haven’t seen them populate yet

[yoda]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Based on their AFD, I think LWX has issued WWAs, but haven’t seen them populate yet

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for DCZ001.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508.
     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for
     MDZ001-003-501-502.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST
     Thursday for MDZ004>006-503-505-507.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ038-039-050-051-053-054-502-527.
     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for
     VAZ028-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST
     Thursday for VAZ025>027-029-030-040-501-505-506-508-526.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     VAZ503-507.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ504.
WV...Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for
     WVZ050>053-055-501>504.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ505.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ506.

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

When will people ever learn lol. 

Learn about what?  I mean it is not like it is going to be 25 degrees with Freezing Rain.  It is going to be 31-32 degrees when the Wet bulb is reached.  It could be above freezing before the QPF even starts.  I do not expect a huge impact on the roads.

[clskinsfan]

18Z HRRR pretty nasty out this way. And for the WV panhandle. 

[yoda]

234pm LWX AFD 

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A favorable synoptic pattern sets up across the eastern CONUS that
will favor a potentially significant wintry mix event across our
area. Aloft, progressive zonal flow sets up mid week, stretching
from the Front Range of the Rockies toward the OH Valley/eastern
Great Lakes region. Within that flow, a progressive shortwave
traverses over our area tomorrow into Thursday, while a surface
high pressure is in place to our north by Wednesday morning.

High confidence in a strong CAD wedge developing over the area
by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, and with cloudy skies,
highs are only forecast to reach the mid to upper 30s Wednesday
afternoon.

Winds continue to veer southeast, then south Wednesday night as
the high pressure pulls away. The CAD is expected to persist for
most of the area, especially in the Potomac Highlands, northern
Shenandoah Valley, and north-central MD. As the upper level
disturbance approaches, warm advection aloft ensues atop the
cold air at the surface - bringing a wintry mix of freezing rain
and sleet to most of the area.

The onset of precipitation will vary, though generally starting
from west to east. The earliest precip begins in the Central
Shenandoah Valley and adjacent ridges Wednesday morning, with
likely a light freezing rain/sleet mix. As the day progresses,
light wintry mix begins in other areas along/west of the Blue
Ridge.

Precipitation is expected to be fairly light, patchy, and
intermittent during the daytime hours Wednesday. Widespread
wintry precip develops across the area by late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, with steady/heavy wintry
precip Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Ice Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the Potomac
Highlands and Northern Shenandoah Valley, and Northern Virginia
Blue Ridge. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for most
of the rest of the area. Those counties just east of the current
Advisory is where the edge of the CAD is likely to be, and given
marginal temperatures the falling sleet/freezing rain may not
have much impact.

Residents and visitors are urged to stay aware of the latest
forecast, and take all necessary actions to prepare for this
incoming winter storm.

The bulk of the ice will fall Wednesday night to just after
daybreak Thursday. Much of the freezing rain falls with
temperatures around 31F-32F, so while impacts are be possible
on area roadways, the greatest ice accretions is likely to occur
on elevated surfaces.

By late Thursday morning, all precipitation will have
transitioned to a cold rain that tapers off in the afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to 50s, which
should allow for much of the ice/sleet to quickly melt in most
areas.

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, that's almost worse than my knew when I meant new.

I thought that was some inside joke here I wasn't privy to lol