February 5-6 Sir Mix A Lot

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

This is the competitive sport part of weather lol.  Definitely gonna be interesting to see how it plays out from a pure science perspective.

Then we need to start cheating and creat a betting line.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Then we need to start cheating and creat a betting line.

and/or have storm contests throughout the year to see who's got the skillz

[NorthArlington101]

12k NAM looking like a sleet storm, colder at the surface too. See if the 3k follows.  

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12k NAM looking like a sleet storm, colder at the surface too. See if the 3k follows.  

Sleet bomb and an early start on the 12k NAM.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Sleet bomb and an early start on the 12k NAM.

1-2” of sleet and a lot of ice that’ll melt pretty fast on Thursday anyway. I’m in. 

[NorthArlington101]

With the NAM, 3k, GFS, Canadians, and EURO even kind of on board I’m a little shocked we don’t have WWAs up. I guess if this is really a Thursday morning issue it’s still a bit early. 

[MN Transplant]

That is a proper Nam-ing.  0.8” precip, all frozen through 12z.  Fun to see, but we toss.

[rjvanals]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1-2” of sleet and a lot of ice that’ll melt pretty fast on Thursday anyway. I’m in. 

 

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1-2” of sleet and a lot of ice that’ll melt pretty fast on Thursday anyway. I’m in. 

If we can get 1” of sleet decent chance it’ll survive the torch 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That is a proper Nam-ing.  0.8” precip, all frozen through 12z.  Fun to see, but we toss.

Meanwhile the FV3 still has no real precip beyond 06z with a majority out in Ohio 

[Round Hill WX]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

With the NAM, 3k, GFS, Canadians, and EURO even kind of on board I’m a little shocked we don’t have WWAs up. I guess if this is really a Thursday morning issue it’s still a bit early. 

LWXs thinking on that:

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Garrett, Allegany,
Mineral, and western Grant Counties where confidence is highest in
warning-level ice accretion (at least a quarter of an inch),
especially on the eastern facing slopes. Additional Watch
considerations were given eastward along the Potomac Highlands to
Washington County, where the CAD is likely to hold on the longest
and prolong the freezing rain. Elsewhere, most of the area falls
into a Winter Weather Advisory, though that will be issued as we get
within 36-24 hours of the event.

[nj2va]

While I wouldn’t trust the GFS over the mesos at this range, it shows an icy morning Thursday across the area, especially favored N areas.

A significant event for eastern Garrett / western Allegheny county.

[Ji]

While I wouldn’t trust the GFS over the mesos at this range, it shows an icy morning Thursday across the area, especially favored N areas.
A significant event for eastern Garrett / western Allegheny county.

I’d love to get real ice storm in the dmv with temps at 23

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’d love to get real ice storm in the dmv with temps at 23

And to think, we’re getting into sun angle season 

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

And to think, we’re getting into sun angle season 

I’m bringing this baby home like I promised. Look out. 

[Ji]

Euro looks colder and icier even through late morning

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 3K 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NWS very bullish, I can smell the delays and closings already. 
 

Wednesday Night

Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

 

 

[Imgoinhungry]

When will the WWAs be hoisted?


.

[midatlanticweather]

11 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

When will the WWAs be hoisted?


.

Just enough for winter storm watches western zones. Guessing by 2pm we see what they will post 

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

When will the WWAs be hoisted?


.

They said yesterday 24-36 hours prior. 

[StormyClearweather]

So am I crazy, or was the GFS the first to nail this one starting several days ago? I mean, I guess it hasn't technically nailed anything since it could still be a nothing burger, but our little GooFuS is never consistent, except when it's consistently wrong. I admit I haven't followed this "event" too closely, so maybe I'm wrong. 

[Interstate]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z 3K 

I hate to say it... but with a 2:1 ratio of Sleet to rain... there is no way it will be that much with the available QPF for this storm.  If we can even call it that.  Baltimore City would need .75 inches of QPF just to get that amount of sleet.

[deer]

I have a surgery Thursday morning in Fairfax, how screwed am I? Haven't looked at the board much the last couple weeks.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, deer said:

I have a surgery Thursday morning in Fairfax, how screwed am I? Haven't looked at the board much the last couple weeks.

Prepare yourself for a personal message from Stormtracker

[MN Transplant]

First HRRR run in range places the heavier band of precip near the MD/PA border rather than near DC.  

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z 3K 

That’s actually warning criteria down here? Anybody?  I think so. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Prepare yourself for a personal message from Stormtracker

Nah, it’s ice.  If it was snow, different story. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Nam has frozen stuff out of dc metro before dawn.


.

[yoda]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That’s actually warning criteria down here? Anybody?  I think so. 

If we were taking it verbatim, yes it's warning criteria 

[yoda]

LWX nudged the watches east just a tad 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

MDZ003-WVZ050>052-042300-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0005.250205T1800Z-250206T1200Z/
Washington-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-
939 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Ice accumulations up to
  three tenths of an inch possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations around half an inch, with localized amounts up to 1
  inch possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Washington County. In West Virginia,
  Hampshire, Berkeley, and Morgan Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Power outages and tree damage
  are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow
  begins Wednesday morning. Precipitation becomes mainly a steady
  freezing rain Wednesday night, though some sleet could mix in at
  times. The highest ice accumulation is expected along the eastern
  facing slopes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.