NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM 8 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Is this an increase and or south from 6z and 0z ? It looks a lot like 00z - 6z went was less icy. But we're talking .1" of difference, though that obviously matters quite a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted yesterday at 06:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:20 PM 35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's the most meh of all guidance still for sure - but this would be impactful NW. It's ~28 in PSU-land, it's not super heavy, it should accrete. It’s been slowly folding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 06:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:41 PM lwx disco, emphasis mine: Quote After a dry start to the day, precipitation will gradually break out across the area during the later morning and afternoon hours. Precipitation is expected to be fairly light, patchy, and intermittent during the daylight hours Wednesday, with steadier precipitation moving in for Wednesday night. Some brief daytime heating may be able to occur Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing, but with dewpoints in the teens and lower 20s, surface temperatures should wet bulb back below freezing across much of the area once steadier precipitation moves in. At this juncture there are still considerable differences between individual models and their respective ensembles regarding timing of precipitation types, and also precipitation amounts. However, in general, this event looks to be a wintry mix across the bulk of the area. Locations further north and east have the best chance of seeing some snow at onset, but any snow accumulations should be minimal (under an inch) before warmer air starts to move in aloft and change precipitation types over the sleet and freezing rain. Much of the event may end up being sleet and freezing rain to the northwest of I-95/north of I-66/US-50, although some mixing with plain rain may be possible by later Wednesday night. More mixing with plain rain may be possible to the southeast of I-95, but again, uncertainty exists at this point regarding precipitation types. While the system doesn`t look to be a major ice storm, there may be impactful amounts of ice accretion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted yesterday at 06:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:50 PM 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: lwx disco, emphasis mine: Soooooo another way for vdot to waste tax payer dollars and have crews sit for 14 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 08:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:48 PM LWX's first pass: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: LWX's first pass: Way under even the least icy model the euro. Typical under play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:53 PM We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…I hope not. Just want a two delay. Will be all rain by 8am, no?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 08:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:55 PM 3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted yesterday at 08:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:58 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines. What does the freezing rain look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 08:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:59 PM Just now, wawarriors4 said: What does the freezing rain look like? Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD I'm going to take the under, but a glaze is a glaze...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM 7 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: I hope not. Just want a two delay. Will be all rain by 8am, no? . It’s possible. Gonna be close for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted yesterday at 09:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:03 PM Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s possible. Gonna be close for northern areas. So is it going to be a wintry mix on Wednesday as well? I'm a bit confused on the timing. Is it rain to mix to ice to rain for Wednesday and Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 09:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:05 PM 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: So is it going to be a wintry mix on Wednesday as well? I'm a bit confused on the timing. Is it rain to mix to ice to rain for Wednesday and Thursday? this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE Thanks. That is really helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 10 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: What does the freezing rain look like? It’s basically just plain rain, no different look really. A hospital? Well….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Nobody’s gonna get that reference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE Is there any model other than the RGEM bring precip to most of the area during daylight hours on Wednesday? I know that several CAMs have that lead snow band in northeast MD, but it seems like a lot of guidance is dry for most of us until the tail end of the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol Did a decent job with last storm initially so will give it some credit. Also not too far from Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Is there any model other than the RGEM bring precip to most of the area during daylight hours on Wednesday? I know that several CAMs have that lead snow band in northeast MD, but it seems like a lot of guidance is dry for most of us until the tail end of the evening commute. I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period. fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago What I find interesting about the RGEM is that it doesn’t switch us over until the main slug of precipitation has passed. That is historically a realistic scenario for us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: What I find interesting about the RGEM is that it doesn’t switch us over until the main slug of precipitation has passed. That is historically a realistic scenario for us. CAD usually hangs in longer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period. fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM That's a weird evolution in the HiResW FV3, but thanks for pointing that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Icon 1/2” qpf plus mostly frozen northern areas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s basically just plain rain, no different look really. A hospital? Well….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday… I’m also rooting for a delay. As you know, HoCo hasn’t any room left for additional days at year’s end, and if February delivers even half of what the models suggest, we’re going to use several more. Adios spring break?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am It’s icy. Northern tier gets dusting if snow to 1/2” sleet and .4-.5” freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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