February 5-6 Sir Mix A Lot

[midatlanticweather]

Icy weekend on GFS as well. Let's keep Sunday safe please. Want to have a good day for the SB. 

 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Icy weekend on GFS as well. Let's keep Sunday safe please. Want to have a good day for the SB. 

 

I hope Super Bowl parties across the DMV are completely ruined.  I hope the roads are impassable with 3" per hour rates falling during the national anthem and every other hour after that for 8 straight hours.   I hope there are no Amazon deliveries that day and I hope food delivery apps have to all but shut down.  

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope Super Bowl parties across the DMV are completely ruined.  I hope the roads are impassable with 3" per hour rates falling during the national anthem and every other hour after that for 8 straight hours.   I hope there are no Amazon deliveries that day and I hope food delivery apps have to all but shut down.  

I feel cheated on

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol

If I'm not mistaken, the RGEM clued into the warmer temps much earlier than the other models for our last system.  The Euro and GFS were spitting out 4-6" and we were ignoring the RGEM with less snow and more rain in the immediate DMV.   So maybe it will be right on the colder end this time. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope Super Bowl parties across the DMV are completely ruined.  I hope the roads are impassable with 3" per hour rates falling during the national anthem and every other hour after that for 8 straight hours.   I hope there are no Amazon deliveries that day and I hope food delivery apps have to all but shut down.  

lol well damn, tell us how you really feel. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

If I'm not mistaken, the RGEM clued into the warmer temps much earlier than the other models for our last system.  The Euro and GFS were spitting out 4-6" and we were ignoring the RGEM with less snow and more rain in the immediate DMV.   So maybe it will be right on the colder end this time. 

Yes it was showing the warm solution for a while but then last min folded to colder. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I feel cheated on

Don't worry, it's an ongoing bit...but I'm actually dead serious when I type these, lol

[WhiteoutMD]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope Super Bowl parties across the DMV are completely ruined.  I hope the roads are impassable with 3" per hour rates falling during the national anthem and every other hour after that for 8 straight hours.   I hope there are no Amazon deliveries that day and I hope food delivery apps have to all but shut down.  

You forgot the bodily harm part

[stormtracker]

Just now, WhiteoutMD said:

You forgot the bodily harm part

I'm saving that one.  

I told one member (i forgot already, sorry) that was having surgery that I hoped they would have to be helicoptered in to the hospital.  Thankfully he had a really good sense of humor about it.    

[TSSN+]

Euro getting icier by the run. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro getting icier by the run. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What’s the time frame for this?

[MillvilleWx]

Still think this is a bit overdone, but still increasingly significant nonetheless. FRAM is what you want to estimated ice accretion. Accumulated Freezing Rain is just model output of QPF that would fall as ZR. It doesn't take into account other variables that provide more information on efficiency. Looking icy Thursday morning for many.  Below is the 18z ECMWF FRAM output

[Imgoinhungry]

What’s the time frame for this?

Overnight wed into thursday. Most models showing freezing rain around 7am. Transitioning to rain around 8 or so.

If models are under-doing CAD, it could be an icy mess for commute.


.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still think this is a bit overdone, but still increasingly significant nonetheless. FRAM is what you want to estimated ice accretion. Accumulated Freezing Rain is just model output of QPF that would fall as ZR. It doesn't take into account other variables that provide more information on efficiency. Looking icy Thursday morning for many.  Below is the 18z ECMWF FRAM output

Thanks - appreciate these maps. Don’t have Pivotal… can only pay so many subscriptions!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Overnight wed into thursday. Most models showing freezing rain around 7am. Transitioning to rain around 8 or so.

If models are under-doing CAD, it could be an icy mess for commute.


.

Oh god cue up another delay/closing for moco. 

[mappy]

I’m expecting a delay Thursday AM. Hope BCPS doesn’t close as it will be their last official snow day. Any other closures will be virtual learning from home. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Oh god cue up another delay/closing for moco. 

Yup… i think a delay is a lock.


.

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still think this is a bit overdone, but still increasingly significant nonetheless. FRAM is what you want to estimated ice accretion. Accumulated Freezing Rain is just model output of QPF that would fall as ZR. It doesn't take into account other variables that provide more information on efficiency. Looking icy Thursday morning for many.  Below is the 18z ECMWF FRAM output

I think it may be under done. Euro still playing catch up and CAD usually lasts longer. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I think it may be under done. Euro still playing catch up and CAD usually lasts longer. 

Lol. I don't see your tag. I think i would trust @MillvilleWx over you any day of the week. 

[Ji]

I’m expecting a delay Thursday AM. Hope BCPS doesn’t close as it will be their last official snow day. Any other closures will be virtual learning from home. 

The euro promised me 67 Thursday which I actually need before this winter onslaught. I think it’d gojng to fail me

[Paleocene]

31 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

What’s the time frame for this?

Time to cancel school in Montgomery county time.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

They’re gonna close schools Thursday…

GREAT NEWS LETS GO!!! We are supposed to have 3 full weeks in a row and atp in my high school journey that’s way too many. I’ve gotten into colleges I just want it to end 

[TSSN+]

57 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Lol. I don't see your tag. I think i would trust @MillvilleWx over you any day of the week. 

Good to know that I don’t care. I’ve seen plenty events like this and they usually over preform. 

[LordBaltimore]

Freezing rain outside the mountains isn't very visually impressive and just makes driving nasty af. Wish we could transfer QPF to next week

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good to know that I don’t care. I’ve seen plenty events like this and they usually over preform. 

I see you’re preforming an opinion. 

[DDweatherman]

18 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I see you’re preforming an opinion. 

I may be able to help here  to be fair, they are both opinions until we have ground truth to verify what happens. Mill shared a model output and a bit more meteorological reasoning, but still said I think. Ole Mr B TSSN is rooting his guess in “analogous events”. Only time will tell 

[kristia]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…

An entire day without having to say “get your finger out of your nose”. I won’t know what to do with myself

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

I think it may be under done. Euro still playing catch up and CAD usually lasts longer. 

 

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

Lol. I don't see your tag. I think i would trust @MillvilleWx over you any day of the week. 

I do feel the CAD lasts longer for those west of the fall line, but I also think the efficiency marker for this event is likely to be a little less than what the ECMWF is taking into account. This is a marginally cold enough air mass being forecast with wet bulbs at 27-31F across the region. Latent heat release will allow for temps to slowly rise during the overnight with most areas at freezing once we get into the morning. One thing to keep an eye on is rates as lighter precip will allow for better accretion efficiency and less opportunity for faster warmer due to those latent heat processes. NBM is basically half of what the ECMWF is implying, but is also a bit more in the sleet realm which would also cut ice accretion, but still be impactful. I think areas that have the best shot at >0.15" accretion at this juncture are areas >900' west of the fall line. Catoctins, Northern Carroll along Parrs ridge, South Mountain, and areas west of Cumberland. 0.05-0.15" for many others, plenty to make it impactful for restricting travel. 

I will say that if this busts, it might be more of a positive bust since the airmass is very shallow but still fairly fresh with the advection pattern occurring less than 24 hrs prior. We shall see!  

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I do feel the CAD lasts longer for those west of the fall line, but I also think the efficiency marker for this event is likely to be a little less than what the ECMWF is taking into account. This is a marginally cold enough air mass being forecast with wet bulbs at 27-31F across the region. Latent heat release will allow for temps to slowly rise during the overnight with most areas at freezing once we get into the morning. One thing to keep an eye on is rates as lighter precip will allow for better accretion efficiency and less opportunity for faster warmer due to those latent heat processes. NBM is basically half of what the ECMWF is implying, but is also a bit more in the sleet realm which would also cut ice accretion, but still be impactful. I think areas that have the best shot at >0.15" accretion at this juncture are areas >900' west of the fall line. Catoctins, Northern Carroll along Parrs ridge, South Mountain, and areas west of Cumberland. 0.05-0.15" for many others, plenty to make it impactful for restricting travel. 

I will say that if this busts, it might be more of a positive bust since the airmass is very shallow but still fairly fresh with the advection pattern occurring less than 24 hrs prior. We shall see!  

This is the competitive sport part of weather lol.  Definitely gonna be interesting to see how it plays out from a pure science perspective.