February 5-6 Sir Mix A Lot

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Is this an increase and or south from 6z and 0z ?

It looks a lot like 00z - 6z went was less icy. But we're talking .1" of difference, though that obviously matters quite a bit

[TSSN+]

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's the most meh of all guidance still for sure - but this would be impactful NW. It's ~28 in PSU-land, it's not super heavy, it should accrete. 

It’s been slowly folding. 

[NorthArlington101]

lwx disco, emphasis mine:

Quote

After a dry start to the day, precipitation will gradually break out across the area during the later morning and afternoon hours. Precipitation is expected to be fairly light, patchy, and intermittent during the daylight hours Wednesday, with steadier precipitation moving in for Wednesday night. Some brief daytime heating may be able to occur Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing, but with dewpoints in the teens and lower 20s, surface temperatures should wet bulb back below freezing across much of the area once steadier precipitation moves in. At this juncture there are still considerable differences between individual models and their respective ensembles regarding timing of precipitation types, and also precipitation amounts. However, in general, this event looks to be a wintry mix across the bulk of the area. Locations further north and east have the best chance of seeing some snow at onset, but any snow accumulations should be minimal (under an inch) before warmer air starts to move in aloft and change precipitation types over the sleet and freezing rain. Much of the event may end up being sleet and freezing rain to the northwest of I-95/north of I-66/US-50, although some mixing with plain rain may be possible by later Wednesday night. More mixing with plain rain may be possible to the southeast of I-95, but again, uncertainty exists at this point regarding precipitation types. While the system doesn`t look to be a major ice storm, there may be impactful amounts of ice accretion.

 

[jewell2188]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lwx disco, emphasis mine:

 

Soooooo another way for vdot to waste tax payer dollars and have crews sit for 14 hours 

[NorthArlington101]

LWX's first pass:

[WxUSAF]

We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

LWX's first pass:

Way under even the least icy model the euro. Typical under play 

[Imgoinhungry]

We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…

I hope not. Just want a two delay. Will be all rain by 8am, no?


.

[NorthArlington101]

3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines.

[wawarriors4]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is pretty sleety - as others have noted this would help the ice have a chance outside the trees/power lines.

What does the freezing rain look like?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, wawarriors4 said:

What does the freezing rain look like?

Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD

[wawarriors4]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Still ongoing at this point but impactful-looking... still sleeting in NE MD

I'm going to take the under, but a glaze is a glaze......

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

I hope not. Just want a two delay. Will be all rain by 8am, no?


.

It’s possible. Gonna be close for northern areas.

[snowmagnet]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s possible. Gonna be close for northern areas.

So is it going to be a wintry mix on Wednesday as well?  I'm a bit confused on the timing.  Is it rain to mix to ice to rain for Wednesday and Thursday? 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

So is it going to be a wintry mix on Wednesday as well?  I'm a bit confused on the timing.  Is it rain to mix to ice to rain for Wednesday and Thursday? 

this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is

• 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD
• 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is

• 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD
• 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE

Thanks.  That is really helpful.  

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

What does the freezing rain look like?

It’s basically just plain rain, no different look really.

A hospital? Well…..

[stormtracker]

Nobody’s gonna get that reference. 

[NorthArlington101]

Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this got delayed a bit which is helping with the impacts - looks something like this as is

• 10am-10pm Wednesday: light rain/sleet/snow, T-1" as you go toward NE MD
• 10pm-10am Wednesday Night/Thursday morning: heavier sleet/FRZA, favored spots favored, changing from sleet to FRZA to rain SW->NE

   Is there any model other than the RGEM bring precip to most of the area during daylight hours on Wednesday?    I know that several CAMs have that lead snow band in northeast MD, but it seems like a lot of guidance is dry for most of us until the tail end of the evening commute.

 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gotta take it with the grain of salt it deserves but RGEM is 1" of snow with sleet and 0.5" of ice for pretty much everyone, lol

Did a decent job with last storm initially so will give it some credit. Also not too far from Nam. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

   Is there any model other than the RGEM bring precip to most of the area during daylight hours on Wednesday?    I know that several CAMs have that lead snow band in northeast MD, but it seems like a lot of guidance is dry for most of us until the tail end of the evening commute.

 

I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period.

fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM

[MN Transplant]

What I find interesting about the RGEM is that it  doesn’t switch us over until the main slug of precipitation has passed.  That is historically a realistic scenario for us.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

What I find interesting about the RGEM is that it  doesn’t switch us over until the main slug of precipitation has passed.  That is historically a realistic scenario for us.

CAD usually hangs in longer for sure 

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I based that more off my read of the LWX AFD - but ultimately yes concur that there is most likely no real impact til that late evening-10pm period.

fwiw the short range FV3 does the same thing as the RGEM

 

                That's a weird evolution in the HiResW FV3, but thanks for pointing that out.

 

[TSSN+]

Icon 1/2” qpf plus mostly frozen northern areas 

[midatlanticweather]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s basically just plain rain, no different look really.

A hospital? Well…..

 

[nw baltimore wx]

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll have freezing or near freezing temps for about 24 hours leading into ice Wednesday night. I doubt roads will get too icy but sidewalks could be slick. They’re gonna close schools Thursday…

I’m also rooting for a delay. As you know, HoCo hasn’t any room left for additional days at year’s end, and if February delivers even half of what the models suggest, we’re going to use several more. Adios spring break??

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is crazy slow to get this going. Says "what precip" and it's 1am Thursday. Finally icing around 4am

It’s icy. Northern tier gets dusting if snow to 1/2” sleet and .4-.5” freezing rain.