Discussion-OBS Noon Wed Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[winterwarlock]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t you get 4-5 in the January storm? 
 

This definitely looks impactful because of the timing (Thursday am rush) but It might just be a NW type deal 

yes but the rest of them were like 1 inch or less so this could potentially be the 2nd most impactful given potential for ice

 

the other ones were ridiculous gloried mood flake coatings

 

definitely see the Li peeps and city folk dominate the forum and they only care if they get theirs

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

yes but the rest of them were like 1 inch or less so this could potentially be the 2nd most impactful given potential for ice

 

the other ones were ridiculous gloried mood flake coatings

 

definitely see the Li peeps and city folk dominate the forum and they only care if they get theirs

Going to come down to how quickly the mid level warmth comes in and how much qpf we get while cold enough. 
 

stuff like that won’t be iron out until Wednesday afternoon 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That seems doubtful especially for areas NW 

But he's basically in philly

[MJO812]

Nam less amped so far

[Stormlover74]

3knam has a few hours of moderate snow before turning to sleet early Thursday morning 

[MJO812]

Solid thump

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

GFS and UK vs. the world for decent snow south of 78, except of course for the goofball NAM with snow only south of 276/195...

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

GFS and UK vs. the world for decent snow south of 78, except of course for the goofball NAM with snow only south of 276/195...

Euro just came in nice with 2 to 3 inches for our area. As Allsnow said it will come down to how quickly the mid level warming comes in. It'll be awhile before we figure out if we're going to pull off a couple inches of snow or if it'll be more sleet. 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro just came in nice with 2 to 3 inches for our area. As Allsnow said it will come down to how quickly the mid level warming comes in. It'll be awhile before we figure out if we're going to pull off a couple inches of snow or if it'll be more sleet. 

Yeah theres definitely bit a a cooling/south trend with the ECMWF past few runs

 

[wdrag]

NWS snow forecast through Thu. Light blue is less than 1", then gradations of blue 1, 2" Looks a little conservative north of I80 but could be right if sleet mixes in within 3 hours of the start. 

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah theres definitely bit a a cooling/south trend with the ECMWF past few runs

 

Thanks for this, please keep posting this forum.

[Allsnow]

 

[NEG NAO]

12 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

is there a reason why a threat 2 days out has very little discussion..am i missing something? this looks better than the half to one inchers that had long threads here

Because it is a fast mover with borderline temps that will give us a similar event compared to many of the lighter events experienced the last couple of years - especially in the immediate metro that will melt away for the most past on Friday closer to the coast you get ....... 1- 3inch event possibly - BORING !

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Because it is a fast mover with borderline temps that will give us a similar event compared to many of the lighter events experienced the last couple of years - especially in the immediate metro that will melt away for the most past on Friday closer to the coast you get ....... 1- 3inch event possibly - BORING !

Definitely one way to look at it. For me it will be the second time it snows this week, where I get to enjoy watching it fall and don’t have to worry about any clean up during the work week. And then there a possibility for a slightly larger event in Saturday. That’s a pretty solid week IMO but to each their own. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Definitely one way to look at it. For me it will be the second time it snows this week, where I get to enjoy watching it fall and don’t have to worry about any clean up during the work week. And then there a possibility for a slightly larger event in Saturday. That’s a pretty solid week IMO but to each their own. 

yes - what these events remind me of is when you go to a restaurant and they first give you whatever after you sit down to munch on ( Thursdays Event) - then the waiter asks you to order your appetizer ( Weekend Event) then you order the main meal - ( next weeks first event) and then you order dessert -(next weeks second event) question here is will there be enough room left for dessert ? ( next weeks second event)

[MJO812]

HRRR is coming in with a decent thump for the area.

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR is coming in with a decent thump for the area.

whenever it's this close i just assume sleet

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

whenever it's this close i just assume sleet

3k nam is very sleety 

 

I think the better shot for front end snow is Saturday night 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

whenever it's this close i just assume sleet

Never ass/u/me.......

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Never ass/u/me.......

The mid level warm layer is usually undermodeled in SWFEs so the sleet usually begins sooner than shown 48 hours out. I’ll be thrilled with more than 1-2” at the start and a little is left/not washed away. 

[Stormlover74]

When it shows snow and thickness >545 it's best to plan on sleet

[jm1220]

If the snow comes in like a wall and starts heavy, the warm mid level air can usually be held off a bit, but if it comes in chopped up/shredded the warm air can move in quicker. This doesn’t look like a very dynamic system so the shredded look is probably more accurate. 

[psv88]

SWFEs are the fucking worst 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

SWFEs are the fucking worst 

when did they start being called these? we just called them west to east bowling ball events and the general consensus was if the low passed to your south (south jersey to delmarva) you were going to get snow.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the snow comes in like a wall and starts heavy, the warm mid level air can usually be held off a bit, but if it comes in chopped up/shredded the warm air can move in quicker. This doesn’t look like a very dynamic system so the shredded look is probably more accurate. 

February 2008 was the best combo, it came in strong and heavy and came in very late at night, during the diurnal min.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

SWFEs are the fucking worst 

Agree, no idea why people at this latitude root them on. You have the rare 2/22/08 or 11/14/18 where the snowy front end actually happens but 5/6 of them or more are crap south of I-84. They’re good for New England and UNY. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Agree, no idea why people at this latitude root them on. You have the rare 2/22/08 or 11/14/18 where the snowy front end actually happens but 5/6 of them or more are crap south of I-84. They’re good for New England and UNY. 

why aren't they good for us if the storm track is farther to the south though? you could have one that tracked 100 miles to our south and then stay all snow?

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when did they start being called these? we just called them west to east bowling ball events and the general consensus was if the low passed to your south (south jersey to delmarva) you were going to get snow.

 

 

I don’t know, I think the New England forum started it and it makes sense because they’re warm mid level overrunning events on SW flow so it caught on.