Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[allgame830]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Easy call temps Andre below freezing till 11-12am so a delay doesn’t do much

100% agreed 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

RAP and HRRR cutting amounts back down to a general 1-2” which has been the best call for the last several days. 

Mid level warmth is usually undermodeled so we often flip to sleet quicker

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Mid level warmth is usually undermodeled so we often flip to sleet quicker

Yes. expecting a sleet fest here

[Allsnow]

 

[Dark Star]

24 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

100% agreed 

It gives you time to clear the snow off your car, shovel, and take it slower to work, gives time for the plows to get out and plow and or salt, and if it is real bad, gives you time to make a decision to close completely for the day?

[the_other_guy]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No way really ?

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

[dmillz25]

32/7 here

[jm1220]

Low to mid 20s around here. I’m sure temps will spike when the flow strengthens off the water but good that we’re radiating well tonight. It won’t help the mid levels but may keep it frozen. 

[lee59]

24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

Agree. I lived in Ct. and then moved to Long Island. The area of Long Island I am in has no hills. Just get in the car and drive in the snow. In Ct.you have to consider where you have to go and how to get there the best way. The hills are bad in the snow.

[lee59]

Down to 28 here. Very light ENE wind.

[psv88]

25/16. Whatever falls will stick immediately 

[Picard]

2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Schools are closed here tomorrow in Vernon.

I'm not really a fan of evening before closures.  Especially in close set ups like this.  Radar isn't even that impressive, so I say leave it until morning.
Our district hasn't called anything yet.  In fact, my district is one of only three not on the closed list for Sussex County.

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy. 22.6/7.7

 

[Stormlover74]

Nams are still meh. Also just dry in general. Mostly under .25"

[Allsnow]

HRRR continues with the solid thump tomorrow morning 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

HRRR continues with the solid thump tomorrow morning 

Yep just before we flip to sleet. Hopefully 1 to 2 beforehand 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yep just before we flip to sleet. Hopefully 1 to 2 beforehand 

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

If even one kid slips on a school sidewalk, the town is gonna pay. ALL the walkways have to be cleared; crews will be up way before school starts to do that. Same goes for the staff; they slip in the parking lot, the district is gonna pay. Days can be made up in the spring. 

[weatherpruf]

43 minutes ago, Picard said:

I'm not really a fan of evening before closures.  Especially in close set ups like this.  Radar isn't even that impressive, so I say leave it until morning.
Our district hasn't called anything yet.  In fact, my district is one of only three not on the closed list for Sussex County.

Are a lot of kids bussed? that matters. Bus slides, kids get hurt, driver gets hurt, district is gonna pay. 31 years in public schools here. Parents bring lawyers to schools now. That is no bullshit. Sat across from them a lot.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yes. expecting a sleet fest here

22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

tell me about it, here on Long Island they wouldn't even close schools for 4-6 inches of snow with heavy snow falling during the morning rush.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Low to mid 20s around here. I’m sure temps will spike when the flow strengthens off the water but good that we’re radiating well tonight. It won’t help the mid levels but may keep it frozen. 

why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Someone said they are still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, pstar3182 said:

Ocean is hovering above 40, not a lot East of the PKW can hope for once onshore kicks up. 

why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

[winterwx21]

RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump. 

[lee59]

27.2 here, virtually no wind 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump. 

Some of the hi-res models look like absolute crap until you're well north into New England. Most of this subforum would struggle to get to 1" of whatever. Hopefully that's wrong and something like the HRRR is right. It'll be a nowcast situation.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap. 

Lots of poo-pooing the "SWFEs" in this forum, but I can come up with many that changed to rain when it no longer mattered (most of the precip was down), usually to light rain or drizzle.  What happens after the precip ends is important...  does it torch or does the accumulation freeze up.