Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[pstar3182]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

the dot of moderate ice over my house surrounded by rain on the first panel is comical. 

It's been rough go for snow around NJ's armpit and south the past few winters. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

My cubicle is next to the IT Help Desk area of the office. The amount of people asking the IT guys about how to enable the VPN for WFH is absolutely wild. I'm talking 10-15 people an hour. This better be a blockbuster Ice storm 

[winterwarlock]

27 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You looking at the same NAM? 

are you?

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z.  If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch.  Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

are you?

 

I would think there should be more snow in your location as 850’s are below and 546 line south of you but the ptype map indicates sleet 

[winterwarlock]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I would think there should be more snow in your location as 850’s are below and 546 line south of you but the ptype map indicates sleet 

ive been around a while to know when these 27 and sleetfest happen...smelling it here

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

ive been around a while to know when these 27 and sleetfest happen...smelling it here

Okay 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr has snow moving in between 8 and 9z but light

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z.  If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch.  Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island

Yep if the snow waits until the warm air is right on the doorstep obviously amounts will be low. Hopefully we get a nice ribbon of overrunning snow ahead of it. 

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

I am still going with this idea - Uptons forecast supports it

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep if the snow waits until the warm air is right on the doorstep obviously amounts will be low. Hopefully we get a nice ribbon of overrunning snow ahead of it. 

Temperatures should drop when the snow moves in  the air is very dry.

[pstar3182]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Temperatures should drop when the snow moves in  the air is very dry.

Ocean is hovering above 40, not a lot East of the PKW can hope for once onshore kicks up. 

[lee59]

I am thinking 1-2 inches in my area and doesn't start until after midnight

[BoulderWX]

8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I am thinking 1-2 inches in my area and doesn't start until after midnight

Not sure where you are but looks to start between 3-5am depending your location 

[Monty]

The entire length of the AC Expressway has been brined TWICE. TWO PASSES. 

[pstar3182]

2 minutes ago, Monty said:

The entire length of the AC Expressway has been brined TWICE. TWO PASSES. 

Budgets 

[lee59]

23 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not sure where you are but looks to start between 3-5am depending your location 

Levittown NY Nassau County is where I am and I agree with that time frame.

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Levittown NY Nassau County is where I am and I agree with that time frame.

Is that when our rain starts here on the island? 
 

[psv88]

Welp, schools with a 2 hour delay

[cleetussnow]

Delays here.

[allgame830]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Welp, schools with a 2 hour delay

My guessing delays are to make sure the storm happens but for areas NW most likely closures as the end result. I got a text saying decision will be made by 730am my kids schools are closing. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Schools are closed here tomorrow in Vernon.

[sussexcountyobs]

23.9/8.4

Clear skies.

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro no major change, it may have a bit more warm nose progressing in slightly faster but its within 20 miles of its 12Z track on everything

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Monty said:

The entire length of the AC Expressway has been brined TWICE. TWO PASSES. 

The brine is actually worst for your vehicle then road salt 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Welp, schools with a 2 hour delay

Already closed here

[BoulderWX]

RAP and HRRR cutting amounts back down to a general 1-2” which has been the best call for the last several days. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Already closed here

No way really ?

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No way really ?

Closed here too

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Closed here too

Easy call temps are below freezing till 11-12am so a delay doesn’t do much