Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Barely any for NYC

Thanks 

[forkyfork]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Barely any for NYC

how's the nam looking metfan

[Allsnow]

Both nams very unimpressive for tonight 

 

would be a normal Am commute tomorrow 

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Both nams very unimpressive for tonight 

 

would be a normal Am commute tomorrow 

I’m not buying the models showing 3”+ but I do think the NAM is out to lunch. It’s been all over the place with this one. 1-2” is a good call here, with someone probably seeing 3

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how's the nam looking metfan

It's a terrible model. Less precip than other models.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Both nams very unimpressive for tonight 

 

would be a normal Am commute tomorrow 

It's out to lunch with the front end.

[EastonSN+]

Given the guidance so far I believe the map that the NWS published makes the most sense.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Given the guidance so far I believe the map that the NWS published makes the most sense.

Agree, this isn’t a hard forecast. Sit back and enjoy an inch or two. 

[EastonSN+]

9 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Our first call for the event. With things trending colder (and drier) may have to move that 1-3 line down a bit. 

GFS and other model trends with qpf are not so great. 

Bump

[JonClaw]

12z HRRR has the peak of this storm during the AM commute; should be fun.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem basically the same. Icon colder

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem basically the same. Icon colder

 

[mikem81]

Watch out for meso models picking up early precip shield. Anything before 12Z is snow. Anything between 12Z-15Z is question mark. After 15Z looks like drizzle. Not a high potential event, but could be a nice little lead off event for Sat Night and Tuesday Night.

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Watch out for meso models picking up early precip shield. Anything before 12Z is snow. Anything between 12Z-15Z is question mark. After 15Z looks like drizzle. Not a high potential event, but could be a nice little lead off event for Sat Night and Tuesday Night.

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Both nams very unimpressive for tonight 

 

would be a normal Am commute tomorrow 

Not for areas   North of NYC looks messy and mostly frozen

[wdrag]

This will probably be 1/4S+ or 1/2S for an hour or two between 6A-9A tomorrow morning ... not a routine 1/2-1"/HR snowfall rate drive.  Maybe if this had occurred at 11PM, you'd get by tomorrow morning with less impaired travel, but not the case. Based on last nights SPC HREF...both versions of the HREF say the same thing. I could see tomorrow morning turning convective as well... iso lightning strike? 

mPing will be helpful tonight... also you'll see the bright band get going in the morning and probably rapidly intensifying echos toward 6AM.

 

For those who have radar scope etc CC will interesting. 

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

Huh

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

Wow 5 weenies you got

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow 5 weenies you got

Up to 7, that may be the most I’ve seen lol. People will come on and post nonsense, just part of the forum, no biggie. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow 5 weenies you got

Yeah we are not in a snowpack rentention latitude 

[MJO812]

Gfs slightly colder for a thump tomorrow

[snowman19]

Gfs slightly colder for a thump tomorrow

The GFS is having issues with snow algorithms. It’s incorrectly showing sleet and freezing rain as snow:

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Agree, this isn’t a hard forecast. Sit back and enjoy an inch or two. 

I agree. That midlevel warm nose means business tomorrow. This is an inch of snow, maybe 2 NW of the city then sleet

[BoulderWX]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you guys aren't looking at the Upton forecast and 2M temps after it changes to liquid - thursday night lows in the upper 30's and Friday Sunny in the low 40's - my point is whatever falls will melt in the immediate NYC metro - bare ground before the next event then Upton has highs in the mid 40's Sunday - you excited about that ?

I’m not excited, it is what it is. An inch or two of snow tonight after an inch Sunday and potentially something more significant this weekend and next week. 
 

I’ll say it again, you don’t have to follow along if it doesn’t matter to you. We live in the NYC metro, snow doesn’t always hang around. 

[Snowlover11]

Enjoy these nickel and dime events, it adds up.  obviously I liked one big daddy event but hell with the past few winters being duds ill take anything.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

up to 9 weenies now, will you hit double digits lol?

I do agree that things were much better when we had one thread for models.  For observations individual threads are okay but when just model info is being posted, why not just keep it to one thread?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m not excited, it is what it is. An inch or two of snow tonight after an inch Sunday and potentially something more significant this weekend and next week. 
 

I’ll say it again, you don’t have to follow along if it doesn’t matter to you. We live in the NYC metro, snow doesn’t always hang around. 

You're probably used to a lot more snow, being from Boulder and all.

[winterwarlock]

man the nams want nothing to do with this while the HRRR seems way too aggressive

[jm1220]

56 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

I gave you the 10th weenie just so you can be crowned double digit weenie. 

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You're probably used to a lot more snow, being from Boulder and all.

I was actually saying that I’m very content with the snow chances. I’m fine with the nickel and dime events. Nice to look at and doesn’t mess things up during the work week. Would I like a big storm, of course, but you take what you can get.