Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Closest setup I can find to this event, 2/21/05.  3-5 fell most places.  High was in a slightly better spot, albeit still not great.  The SFC low re-developed though and we got a NE flow after being south.  This time I think we'd get more sleet.  Shows you how a pretty close setup acts differently with small changes.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2005/us0221.php

plus that was a much snowier winter

 

[Allsnow]

Euro 18z with more frozen this run. 

[wishcast_hater]

I’m under a WWA as well. Very unusual to see one posted so far out from the event.


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[allgame830]

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m under a WWA as well. Very unusual to see one posted so far out from the event.


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I believe it has a lot to do with the timing being for the early morning rush hours 

[weatherpruf]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

plus that was a much snowier winter

 

Indeed, we had an impressive blizzard in Jan, dumped a ton of snow on Cape Cod and a foot or more elsewhere in the region. The good ole days.....

[wdrag]

Headline update: NYC CP-LI... am expecting 1-3" before snow-sleet changes to rain. 

702 PM Tue 2/4: headline delayed the start time about 12 hours to midnight Wed night.  Bulk of the wintry mix probably occurs in a 6 hour window roughly 4AM-10AM. All of the NYC subforum and surrounding areas near and inland from I95 are covered by a winter wx advisory issued at 330PM Tuesday. Several hours of slippery conditions in snow ice are also expected in NYC and Long Island near dawn-sunrise Thursday before a change to rain.  The start time delay was caused by the narrow snow streak in se PA-MD-DE Wednesday morning not advancing northeastward until Wednesday night. 

[wdrag]

In use you didn't see this... from WPC. 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr quite cold and snowy through 8am. Starts to mix thereafter 

[wdrag]

As fwiw from my experience:

SPC HREF can run a degree or two cold so that ZR might be little too expansive"at times"... but not always. 

HRRR can run a degree or three to warm, especially beyond 24 hours... 

RGEM and GGEM: Tends to be a slightly warmer model (note the discourse on the failed RGEM holding r/s line w of NYC for the 1/19 event). The reason I bring this up... if models show pcpn and especially inside 60 hours, the Canadian is showing more snow... it needs to. be considered as a sign that other modeling may be running too warm and rainy.

Staying the with RGEM/GGEM...tends to run a little amped...  a bit too much qpf but a nice Indicator of drizzle flurries. 

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr quite cold and snowy through 7am

Good sign and RGEM kind of snowy as the RAP. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good sign and RGEM kind of snowy as the RAP. 

 

[wdrag]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Little worried that this could be sleet instead of snow, therefore cutting accums down considerably.  Will watch trends next cycles but it does look slippery at sunrise Thu. 

[winterwx21]

0z RGEM looks really good like the HRRR. Walt mentioned that those models tend to run a little warm, so hopefully those colder solutions are a good sign. Would like to believe we're going to get a few inches like those models show, but who knows. Still a very tough call as far as snow vs sleet. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z RGEM looks really good like the HRRR. Walt mentioned that those models tend to run a little warm, so hopefully those colder solutions are a good sign. Would like to believe we're going to get a few inches like those models show, but who knows. Still a very tough call as far as snow vs sleet. 

Rgem looks wacky to me. At 10 am it's 36 and above freezing at 850 yet it's showing snow

[winterwx21]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem looks wacky to me. At 10 am it's 36 and above freezing at 850 yet it's showing snow

I was just taking a close look at it on the hour by hour color loop. RGEM shows a burst of heavy snow for a couple hours before it changes to the mix. Just as the sleet is about to take over, dynamics take over with the heavy precip to delay the mixing. Who knows if that's right, but it shows a good thump of snow. 

[jm1220]

HRRR looks pretty good on the soundings during the heavier precip near the city/LI. Hopefully it's not too cold. If the precip comes in like a wall/mod to heavy, it has a better chance at being right. If shredded/broken up, warm air will likely take over sooner because of the precip breaks. The "come in like a wall" outcome is the best chance at a surprise 2-3" near the coast, if shredded/broken up we might struggle to make it over 1" and that would likely be sleet.

[SnowGoose69]

Even the GFS shows signs of snow breaking out over NJ/PA earlier at night as the HRRR/NAM show.  Will have to watch this one closely for starting as early as 06-07z.

[MJO812]

Cmc colder this run

[The 4 Seasons]

Our first call for the event. With things trending colder (and drier) may have to move that 1-3 line down a bit. 

GFS and other model trends with qpf are not so great. 

[NEG NAO]

CP NYC will find a way to measure close to 1 inch snow  for each of the next 2 events and not out of the question for next weeks events as suppression is possible

[RU848789]

The 06Z NAM is even more of an outlier now, showing very little snow south of 84, but having substantial ZR for many south of 84 down towards Philly, followed by a soaking 1/2"+ rain (which we could use).  I know it can score a coup sometimes, especially in WAA/mix events, so it's worth watching how this plays out.