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Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.


wdrag
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23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don,

This has to be the greatest number of accumulating snowfalls before reaching 10 inches for Central Park.

Today is the 7th day with measurable snowfall. Winter 1937-1938 had 14 days with measurable snowfall with less than 10" of snow. The 15th day reached and exceeded 10".

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today is the 7th day with measurable snowfall. Winter 1937-1938 had 14 days with measurable snowfall with less than 10" of snow. The 15th day reached and exceeded 10".


Kind of like 2008-2009?

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2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Cool cool. Then probably no reason for you to follow along since you already know the outcome of the next month. We’ll see you in ten years when the pattern is better! 

Sometimes I have a moment of weakness and succumb to optimism. But then the event always underperforms and I'm reminded about how dreadful the pattern is. Hopefully it takes less than 10 years to get out of this slump.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a very good winter

this is more like 2006-07 or 2007-08

I did say this coming pattern would favor SNE a lot more than us but that doesn't mean it can't snow here. 

Also "huge bust". The most models spit out was 1-2" so calm down lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

SBAdE6r_d.webp?maxwidth=1520&fidelity=gr
 

Just a reminder when people complain about school closings this kinda stuff happens far more often when we get just a little bit of winter weather. 

...and yet the media always tells you to take mass transit during winter weather events, and inevitably, there are delays and line outages...

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Storm over for me and most of CNJ, at least; final measurement was 0.4" of mostly sleet, bringing my winter total up to 11.1".  Temp up to 33F and is 33-35F along and SE of 95 with light rain falling and the radar looks like the worst of the precip is over, although we still might get another 0.1-0.2" of rain - and this is very likely still sleet or maybe freezing rain 15-20 miles NW of 95 (i.e., a Doylestown to Morristown to Mahwah line where it's still in the 30-32F range and further NW of there where it's in the upper 20s.  

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1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Hard to do when it costs billions. Nice that they have a train at all

Trains that run to "nowhere".   While they have tracks connecting to many areas of the state, you have to take too many connections to get there.  Not ideal for one of the most congested states in the nation, but too late now. 

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21 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread

I am still going with this 11 Weenie post attached I made yesterday which was only for NYC and local suburbs NOT Northern and Western suburbs - have just a light dusting here with a little icy slush on the east side of the Union/Middlesex County in NJ and temp is about 33 degrees now and forecasted to stay above freezing through daytime tomorrow last forecast I saw - so bare ground for the start of the weekend event which could end up similar to this one .........

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Just now, the_other_guy said:

looks like we’re just about done unless this radar fills in.

 

Three things happened here to fuck this: 

 

Got going to late

They’re just isn’t a lot of precip

The warm tongue under modeled

Been the trend all season for less precip at the last minute. This looked like a solid half inch of liquid at least

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why are the SST still in the 40s and above normal this winter even though we've had at least an average to a colder than average winter with almost no 50 degree highs? Normal SST should be down in the 30s even down to ACY.  Is it because of a predominantly westerly flow that causes upwelling and brings up warmer water from below (the opposite effect from the summer) or is it because we need more snow to fall to cool down the SST?

 

Winds. It also takes time to cool waters that had been abnormally warm coming into the winter.

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

2008-09 reached 10" seasonal snowfall on its 8th day with measurable snowfall. 2006-07 took 12 days to get to 10".

Was 2006-07 the one with the most in recent memory Don? I can't remember another winter quite like it-- all those sleet and freezing rain events made it seem much snowier than it actually was.  We had just over 10 inches of snow and it seemed more like a season with 25 inches of snow.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Was 2006-07 the one with the most in recent memory Don? I can't remember another winter quite like it-- all those sleet and freezing rain events made it seem much snowier than it actually was.  We had just over 10 inches of snow and it seemed more like a season with 25 inches of snow.

 

Yes.

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