Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Sums up the current situation N and W. Ill add region wide Schools closed

My kids school closed last night. Almost every school in the county closed last night

[MJO812]

Ping ping ping 

[ag3]

Temp now above freezing here. 32.4

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

LOL huge underperformer yet again? Not surprised at all, it forgot how to snow in our region. Still pretty confident central park ends February under 5". The next storm will be a carbon copy of this one, and the 1/11 one should miss south or weaken dramatically. We just cant buy a good snowstorm after 2022.

Thanks for the screenshot.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Central park may not reach 10" this winter. 

They had a half inch already today, not sure what they're up to for the season. 

The stat may not to be tracked however.

[BoulderWX]

While most will probably be on the lower end of the 1-2” range that was forecast, I’m seeing a lot more reports of ice which makes this a more impactful event as evidenced by school closings throughout the tri-state area. Hard to call something an under-performer with a 1-2” forecast, but some people are miserable so I’m sure we’ll see a few of those complaints. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

LOL huge underperformer yet again? Not surprised at all, it forgot how to snow in our region. Still pretty confident central park ends February under 5". The next storm will be a carbon copy of this one, and the 1/11 one should miss south or weaken dramatically. We just cant buy a good snowstorm after 2022.

There would’ve been more snow if the precip came in moderate to heavy to start, it would’ve held off the warming aloft better with more lift. There was also no good overrunning snow swath stretched east into the cold air. These are the rare SWFEs that are good for NYC. Instead we got the shredded up outcome, snow took forever to start and warm air aloft is able to easily overspread the area. Surface temp here is holding steady at 29-30 though so it may be hard to flip to plain rain away from the immediate coast. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

They had a half inch already today, not sure what they're up to for the season. 

The stat may not to be tracked however.

it was 6.8 last i checked so now its 7.3. Next storm will be a non event similar to this one I feel. 1/11 not feeling great about either. After 1/11 the pattern seems to relax so snow ops should diminish quickly. It's a coin toss as to whether the park finished above or below 10".

[EastonSN+]

Just now, anthonymm said:

it was 6.8 last i checked so now its 7.3. Next storm will be a non event similar to this one I feel. 1/11 not feeling great about either. After 1/11 the pattern seems to relax so snow ops should diminish quickly. It's a coin toss as to whether the park finished above or below 10".

The blocking matures around the 20th and a little after so there's a lot of time left on the clock. The next storm is a better set up than this one as the low pressure is further south in the cold air ahead of it is a little deeper.

[MJO812]

Just now, anthonymm said:

it was 6.8 last i checked so now its 7.3. Next storm will be a non event similar to this one I feel. 1/11 not feeling great about either. After 1/11 the pattern seems to relax so snow ops should diminish quickly. It's a coin toss as to whether the park finished above or below 10".

 

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

While most will probably be on the lower end of the 1-2” range that was forecast, I’m seeing a lot more reports of ice which makes this a more impactful event as evidenced by school closings throughout the tri-state area. Hard to call something an under-performer with a 1-2” forecast, but some people are miserable so I’m sure we’ll see a few of those complaints. 

There's a huge difference between 1.5" of snow (what nws forecasted) and 0.5" of sleety mess. That's a third of the forecast amount which is a huge bust. 

[ag3]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There would’ve been more snow if the precip came in moderate to heavy to start, it would’ve held off the warming aloft better with more lift. There was also no good overrunning snow swath stretched east into the cold air. These are the rare SWFEs that are good for NYC. Instead we got the shredded up outcome, snow took forever to start and warm air aloft is able to easily overspread the area. Surface temp here is holding steady at 29-30 though so it may be hard to flip to plain rain away from the immediate coast. 

I’m in Whitestone, Queens and it’s above freezing right now. 

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Central park may not reach 10" this winter. 

I meannn they are at 7.3”

[SRRTA22]

FWIW there is a decent covering of sleet out there. ~1/4" here

I'd rather this than 40f and rain *shrugs*

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

There's a huge difference between 1.5" of snow (what nws forecasted) and 0.5" of sleety mess. That's a third of the forecast amount which is a huge bust. 

Tell me you’re a child without telling me…

[ag3]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

There's a huge difference between 1.5" of snow (what nws forecasted) and 0.5" of sleety mess. That's a third of the forecast amount which is a huge bust. 

Lol. 

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I meannn they are at 7.3”

Gonna be a real struggle to get 3 more inches if you ask me.

[dmillz25]

He’s really saying the Park can’t get 2.7” more inches between now and late March lmao

[dmillz25]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Gonna be a real struggle to get 3 more inches if you ask me.

Ok you’re definitely trolling lol

[SRRTA22]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

He’s really saying the Park can’t get 2.7” more inches between now and late March lmao

Might get that this weekend haha

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Gonna be a real struggle to get 3 more inches if you ask me.

Almost as much a struggle as realizing 1 is January and 2 is february is my guess.

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Ok you’re definitely trolling lol

Of course he is, he joined a month ago and hasnt said anything of substance in that time. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

He’s really saying the Park can’t get 2.7” more inches between now and late March lmao

Tell me you havent been paying attention to how hard it is to get snow for the last 3 years. Bruh the entire winter of 2022-2023 couldnt get that amount lol! 

[RU848789]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You're explanation is imo, excellent and why we do what we do for kind of improving traveling life, when travel is not necessary or can be delayed. We love the flakes but it's the frozen-freezing that is the problem. Well stated.  

I'll addd while Im here... the NAM is the so called winner on less snow and more IP... but its not nil and if you're getting snow this morning its your win.  Wantage NJj has had very little snow so far. We are 0.4" sleet and down to 21F at 630AM

Finally: maybe the city and Island are OK on roads... am not quite sure though I check Cams around CP.  Feedback will be helpful.

But overall I think this advisory is a success... imperfect yes, but not worth mentioning BUST.  We'll look at this later today to see what has occurred.  

Probably starting a multi day cover all bases thread at 4P for the 11th-15th or 11th-14th, something like that so the complaints about multi threads are minimal. Can trim that when its obvious the focus should. be on a particular embedded event.  And while it's a thread... am wary of thinking 3+ for NYC... these systems are deviating a bit and so the ensemble blend I think is best for that 11th-15th period. 

 

Thanks for the kind words.  I was only using the word "bust" with reference to the forecast of 1-2" of "snow" by the NWS (their map had all of CNJ/NNJ in their 1-2" swath and point and click forecasts were around 1.2-1.5" for most) and many others for CNJ and beyond, as well as the predictions by most models showing 1-2" to 2-4" of snow, but the forecast was definitely not a bust with regard to impact, as we both agree that sleet is just as impactful to travel/removal as snow (maybe moreso as it melts more slowly), as sleet is just as difficult to drive/walk on as snow (maybe worse) and there are many, many accidents being reported. 

In hindsight it's interesting to look at the NAM in more detail, as it was the only one really showing <1" of snow due to an earlier changeover to sleet. This can be seen in the 0Z run last night, where the Pivotal snowmap shows <0.5" of snow for most, but the Tropical Tidbits map was showing ~2" of "snow" for most of NJ - but on TT, sleet is reported as 10:! ratio snow by the model, whereas Pivotal doesn't count sleet at all. 2" of sleet would be about 2/3" of "snow" on the ground given about a 3:1 sleet:liquid ratio (or even 1/2" at 2:1 ratio; sleet is often 2-4:1 ratio and I don't know what this sleet is), which is not far off my 0.4" and reports of 0.5" or more of sleet for many.  By inference, the NAM was predicting about 2/3" of mostly sleet.  

I think there are some service providers that give actual snow and sleet accumulation forecasts, but I don't have access to those (I think NCEP has them), so I had to do the comparison/analysis by inference.  

 

[anthonymm]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Of course he is, he joined a month ago and hadn’t said anything of substance in that time. 

Im not trolling, im just the only one not in denial about the pitiful snowfall pattern since February of 2022. Something changed after Feb 2022 and we're not getting out of this slump anytime soon.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Im not trolling, im just the only one not in denial about the pitiful snowfall pattern since February of 2022. Something changed after Feb 2022 and we're not getting out of this slump anytime soon.

Either Colin or snowman19 twin brother

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maybe at Central Park for a little longer.

Don why are the SST still in the 40s and above normal this winter even though we've had at least an average to a colder than average winter with almost no 50 degree highs? Normal SST should be down in the 30s even down to ACY.  Is it because of a predominantly westerly flow that causes upwelling and brings up warmer water from below (the opposite effect from the summer) or is it because we need more snow to fall to cool down the SST?

 

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

There's a huge difference between 1.5" of snow (what nws forecasted) and 0.5" of sleety mess. That's a third of the forecast amount which is a huge bust. 

It's a kind of forecast bust, as per my recent post, since the snow predicted didn't materialize, but the mass of frozen precip that fell (0.5" of sleet is about the water equivalent of 1.5" of snow at 3:!) was spot on and the impacts have been substantial on the roads with regard to accidents and slips/falls, so definitely not a "big picture impact" bust at all.  

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Im not trolling, im just the only one not in denial about the pitiful snowfall pattern since February of 2022. Something changed after Feb 2022 and we're not getting out of this slump anytime soon.

Sup noreaster27

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Im not trolling, im just the only one not in denial about the pitiful snowfall pattern since February of 2022. Something changed after Feb 2022 and we're not getting out of this slump anytime soon.

Cool cool. Then probably no reason for you to follow along since you already know the outcome of the next month. We’ll see you in ten years when the pattern is better!