Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[sussexcountyobs]

On my commute this morning, got into heavier rates as I got into western Bergen county. It was all sleet, but getting snow now in Westwood. 

[IrishRob17]

Ripping snow here now, 22/19. My brother, who lives next door, is on a job down in Westchester and said most of his commute was sleet.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Got a thick dusting of snow. 
 

has changed to all sleet 

[the_other_guy]

All sleet. Changed over much quicker than thought.

28F. Going to be an ugly morning

[lee59]

Maybe a 1/4 inch, turning to rain and ice pellets as the temperature goes above freezing. Under performer here.

[wdrag]

25 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Everything is coated with a very slippery layer of snow/sleet and any untreated surfaces are treacherous; even the brined road we live on is very slippery. As I've said countless times, when it comes to impacts on travel and removal, frozen mass is way more important than depth (except for visibility impacts which are nil for sleet); also, sleet melts more slowly than snow once temps go above 32F, given the much lower surface area to volume/mass ratio (less surface area is exposed to warmer air per unit mass). Up to 31F now and worried about freezing rain coming, although still a mixture of maybe 80% sleet/20% snow.

You're explanation is imo, excellent and why we do what we do for kind of improving traveling life, when travel is not necessary or can be delayed. We love the flakes but it's the frozen-freezing that is the problem. Well stated.  

I'll addd while Im here... the NAM is the so called winner on less snow and more IP... but its not nil and if you're getting snow this morning its your win.  Wantage NJj has had very little snow so far. We are 0.4" sleet and down to 21F at 630AM

Finally: maybe the city and Island are OK on roads... am not quite sure though I check Cams around CP.  Feedback will be helpful.

But overall I think this advisory is a success... imperfect yes, but not worth mentioning BUST.  We'll look at this later today to see what has occurred.  

Probably starting a multi day cover all bases thread at 4P for the 11th-15th or 11th-14th, something like that so the complaints about multi threads are minimal. Can trim that when its obvious the focus should. be on a particular embedded event.  And while it's a thread... am wary of thinking 3+ for NYC... these systems are deviating a bit and so the ensemble blend I think is best for that 11th-15th period. 

 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Ripping snow here now, 22/19. My brother, who lives next door, is on a job down in Westchester and said most of his commute was sleet.

As is tradition, right after I posted sleet started mixing in, measured .8"

[steve392]

Local roads by my house were good.  Town dpw's were all salting.  As soon as i got to route 80 ramps, njdot was nowhere in sight the entire drive up to mahwah.  Was pouring rain in fairlawn for a few minutes, heavy sleet, snow and sleet till mahwah.  You can see where the colder temps were with the snow accumulating on things.  Light snow falling in mahwah

[the_other_guy]

City is gonna bust so badly in this nowcast.

JFK already rain and 33F

Will be interesting to see which model called it in the end

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

City is gonna bust so badly in this nowcast.

JFK already rain and 33F

Will be interesting to see which model called it in the end

never sleep on nams

[MJO812]

Just heard people scraping the sidewalks. Messy here.

[RU848789]

Still 31F here with sleet falling, but 33F reported in Carteret about 7-8 miles to my ENE - wonder if being a bit further west matters for this one with regard to being a little colder. Paved surfaces are very slippery.

[donsutherland1]

Light snow has transitioned to sleet in Larchmont.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You're explanation is imo, excellent and why we do what we do for kind of improving traveling life, when travel is not necessary or can be delayed. We love the flakes but it's the frozen-freezing that is the problem. Well stated.  

I'll addd while Im here... the NAM is the so called winner on less snow and more IP... but its not nil and if you're getting snow this morning its your win.  Wantage NJj has had very little snow so far. We are 0.4" sleet and down to 21F at 630AM

Finally: maybe the city and Island are OK on roads... am not quite sure though I check Cams around CP.  Feedback will be helpful.

But overall I think this advisory is a success... imperfect yes, but not worth mentioning BUST.  We'll look at this later today to see what has occurred.  

Probably starting a multi day cover all bases thread at 4P for the 11th-15th or 11th-14th, something like that so the complaints about multi threads are minimal. Can trim that when its obvious the focus should. be on a particular embedded event.  And while it's a thread... am wary of thinking 3+ for NYC... these systems are deviating a bit and so the ensemble blend I think is best for that 11th-15th period. 

 

Thanks Walt.

As for this system I have seen it so many times in my day where we change over much quicker than expected (this type of setup), especially when the high pressure has moved off the coast.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

City is gonna bust so badly in this nowcast.

JFK already rain and 33F

Will be interesting to see which model called it in the end

it was still sleet here as of like 10 min ago

[jm1220]

29 and light sleet. Basically a coating. Looks like it’s the maybe we make it to 1” outcome. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Maybe a 1/4 inch, turning to rain and ice pellets as the temperature goes above freezing. Under performer here.

yes a quarter inch of sleet covering basically everything

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

never sleep on nams

Even the NAM didn’t have JFK raining at 12Z.  The main issue here as some posted yesterday was steady precip came in too late.  You needed rates of like .05 an hour by 08-09Z or so and you’d have had a shot at maybe 2 inches even in areas around the city but it wasn’t til almost 11z in the end.   

[wdrag]

NYC CP 0.08 last hr, all snow and still 3/4S- at 7A OB with temp near 31F.  My guess CP is somewhere between 1/2-1" of new snow... 0.15 past 3 hrs but sleet mix.  Will be interesting to see what they have had. 

[Yanksfan]

I keep looking out the window. Looks like an icy mix of snow and sleet. Meh. Already looking ahead to Saturday nights event.

[SnoSki14]

This was a fairly warm system aloft. Not much cold wedging either so even surface temps are warming. 

Advisory called for an inch of snow/sleet and that makes sense. 

Wasn't expecting more than that from this one. Much higher ceiling Saturday 

[rgwp96]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC CP 0.08 last hr, all snow and still 3/4S- at 7A OB with temp near 31F.  My guess CP is somewhere between 1/2-1" of new snow... 0.15 past 3 hrs but sleet mix.  Will be interesting to see what they have had. 

I doubt they are snow

[wdrag]

Just now, rgwp96 said:

I doubt they are snow

I have to go  by the OB.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

This was a fairly warm system aloft. Not much cold wedging either so even surface temps are warming. 

Advisory called for an inch of snow/sleet and that makes sense. 

Wasn't expecting more than that from this one. Much higher ceiling Saturday 

Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better.  I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though 

[gravitylover]

23/21 I've had heavy snow with some huge flakes but mostly cylinder crystals mixed with very heavy sleet for a little while now. The sleet isn't letting the snow depth increase much so what's on the ground is super dense.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

This was a fairly warm system aloft. Not much cold wedging either so even surface temps are warming. 

Advisory called for an inch of snow/sleet and that makes sense. 

Wasn't expecting more than that from this one. Much higher ceiling Saturday 

It’s a SWFE, the vast majority of which suck for NYC and places I-80 and south. On Sat PM we get to roll the dice with another one, hopefully that one ends up better. 

[dmillz25]

Snow/sleet mix here in LIC

[MJO812]

Sleet here

[Tatamy]

Sleet and freezing rain mix here.  0.20” new.  28F

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better.  I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though 

Track looks to be a little further south than this one too.