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Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO
NEG NAO

most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week ne

jm1220
jm1220

I gave you the 10th weenie just so you can be crowned double digit weenie. 

The 4 Seasons
The 4 Seasons

HRRR scaled back a bit, think 1-3 is good for many. some locally up to 4. But i think the overall area will probably be around 2-3"

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 12:12 AM, MJO812 said:

No way really ?

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Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

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lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 1:09 AM, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

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Agree. I lived in Ct. and then moved to Long Island. The area of Long Island I am in has no hills. Just get in the car and drive in the snow. In Ct.you have to consider where you have to go and how to get there the best way. The hills are bad in the snow.

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Picard

Picard

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2025 at 11:27 PM, sussexcountyobs said:

Schools are closed here tomorrow in Vernon.

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I'm not really a fan of evening before closures.  Especially in close set ups like this.  Radar isn't even that impressive, so I say leave it until morning.
Our district hasn't called anything yet.  In fact, my district is one of only three not on the closed list for Sussex County.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
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  On 2/6/2025 at 1:09 AM, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

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If even one kid slips on a school sidewalk, the town is gonna pay. ALL the walkways have to be cleared; crews will be up way before school starts to do that. Same goes for the staff; they slip in the parking lot, the district is gonna pay. Days can be made up in the spring. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 1:49 AM, Picard said:

I'm not really a fan of evening before closures.  Especially in close set ups like this.  Radar isn't even that impressive, so I say leave it until morning.
Our district hasn't called anything yet.  In fact, my district is one of only three not on the closed list for Sussex County.

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Are a lot of kids bussed? that matters. Bus slides, kids get hurt, driver gets hurt, district is gonna pay. 31 years in public schools here. Parents bring lawyers to schools now. That is no bullshit. Sat across from them a lot.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 12:37 AM, psv88 said:

Yes. expecting a sleet fest here

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22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 1:09 AM, the_other_guy said:

Much different when you leave the city.

 

When I lived in Queens, I got in the car and drove around in snow.

We moved up to Westchester and it was snowing for around an hour, I decided to go to Home Depot. 

I got as far as the main road and was caught in pandemonium. Its the steep hills, the increased elevation and the lack of HUGE amounts of pre salt.

Schools often close up here has 1-3 in hills is much worse than 1-3 on grassy surfaces in the Urban Jungle

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tell me about it, here on Long Island they wouldn't even close schools for 4-6 inches of snow with heavy snow falling during the morning rush.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 1:30 AM, jm1220 said:

Low to mid 20s around here. I’m sure temps will spike when the flow strengthens off the water but good that we’re radiating well tonight. It won’t help the mid levels but may keep it frozen. 

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why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Someone said they are still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2025 at 9:40 PM, pstar3182 said:

Ocean is hovering above 40, not a lot East of the PKW can hope for once onshore kicks up. 

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why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 3:12 AM, winterwx21 said:

RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump. 

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Some of the hi-res models look like absolute crap until you're well north into New England. Most of this subforum would struggle to get to 1" of whatever. Hopefully that's wrong and something like the HRRR is right. It'll be a nowcast situation.

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 2:43 AM, jm1220 said:

22-24 in this area, NWS has my low at 26. I don’t see the onshore flow being strong enough to get us above 32 before the vast majority of precip is over. I think we get some snow but an inch of crud vs 2-3” depends on it coming in like a wall as the HRRR or shredded crap. 

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Lots of poo-pooing the "SWFEs" in this forum, but I can come up with many that changed to rain when it no longer mattered (most of the precip was down), usually to light rain or drizzle.  What happens after the precip ends is important...  does it torch or does the accumulation freeze up.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
  On 2/6/2025 at 6:08 AM, winterwarlock said:

the models were awful tonight, stunning this board isnt even talking about this system..what happened to this place

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Latest HRRR and Euro give northern NJ a few inches with 1 to 2 for our area. Things seem on track.

This is a weather board filled with snow lovers. Even an inch or two is interesting to most of us.

 I think 1 to 2 is most likely, but there's always the slight chance that the NAM models will be right about this being a non event. We'll find out in a little while.

This event is just the appetizer anyway with the next 2 (Saturday and Tuesday) looking more significant. 

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