nvck Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 never started a topic before, but figured this storm could use one, as it's got the potential to be a significant event for our area... went ahead and x-posted the latest gefs/eps MSLP products from the other thread 29 minutes ago, nvck said: GEFS has trended a little bit stronger, and maybe slightly farther north over the past couple runs, and the EPS has trended stronger, and clustering around Chicago the past several runs. Someone will have to cave soon.... 18z NAM should be interesting, with this system showing up at the end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 In Euro I trust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: In Euro I trust. Seen them all make bad calls this winter. I'd like more SN than Ice. Meet in the middle works for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This is starting to be greatly concerning to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Definitely has an ugly look to it, but we do jump to the mid 30’s pretty quickly and a lot of the precip is convective in nature so that should keep accretion down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Euro is trending up with ice totals, not great news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Get that ice junk out of here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Even though the zr signal is there, I would think that the high off of the Atlantic coast on both the Euro and GFS would need to be positioned more to the northwest in Ontario to keep the feed of cold air coming. There might be some significant ice, but without a prolonged cold air feed, it will probably be short-lived. (I've always wanted to make a map ) 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 GFS coming in with its iciest run yet. (Freezing rain QPF, not FRAM.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12z Euro ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Still waiting for AFD's to come out, but my P&C went from little to no ice accumulation to 0.1 to 0.2 for Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Chicago NWS Taken altogether, this leads to an expectation for highly variable ice accumulation amounts across our area, ranging from a few hundredths near the Wisconsin state line to perhaps locally 0.25 to 0.33" in the wake of convective cores (near/south of the I-88 corridor?). Regardless of the eventual uneven ice amounts, we will have to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for some if not all of our area for the Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning timeframe for hazardous travel conditions, downed tree limbs, and localized power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Hope we can get thundersleet or thunder freezing rain just to say we lived through it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 24 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Hope we can get thundersleet or thunder freezing rain just to say we lived through it. The March 3, 2023 winter storm locally had a tremendous amount of thunder/lightning reported throughout SE MI. I was able to actual personally experience thundersnow and thundersleet/freezing rain both during that event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The March 3, 2023 winter storm locally had a tremendous amount of thunder/lightning reported throughout SE MI. I was able to actual personally experience thundersnow and thundersleet/freezing rain both during that event. We had reporters out in the field who heard thundersnow that day but I didn't actually get to hear it myself. I also slept through thundersnow during GHD Blizzard I. I'll bag one, one of these days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I don't want 0.38" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Looks like a thin glaze possible here, but heavier precip shunts east, so not too impressed for this area. Perhaps later runs will bump heavier precip back northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 hours ago, IWXwx said: Even though the zr signal is there, I would think that the high off of the Atlantic coast on both the Euro and GFS would need to be positioned more to the northwest in Ontario to keep the feed of cold air coming. There might be some significant ice, but without a prolonged cold air feed, it will probably be short-lived. (I've always wanted to make a map ) Agreed but flat shortwave should hold back the warm surge enough to allow for hours of over running though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 There was so much thundersnow during the April 2018 Blizzard here that the novelty of it *almost* wore off for a few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The March 3, 2023 winter storm locally had a tremendous amount of thunder/lightning reported throughout SE MI. I was able to actual personally experience thundersnow and thundersleet/freezing rain both during that event. I went outside in that too. Was crazy to experience. And the thundersnow before then. Was a great winter for photography. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Recent model runs seem to be drying out qpf ice accumulations further north of I80. Thankfully in this case trend of weaker and/or further SE solutions continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 IKK and cold icy rain sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Recent model runs seem to be drying out qpf ice accumulations further north of I80. Thankfully in this case trend of weaker and/or further SE solutions continues. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: I went outside in that too. Was crazy to experience. And the thundersnow before then. Was a great winter for photography. Yes, the winter of 2022-23, mild as it was, was stellar for photography. You had: Dec 23-24 blizzard conditions Jan 22 wet snowstorm Jan 25 wet snowstorm Feb 22 ice storm Mar 3 wet snowstorm Mar 10 wet snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Tenth of an inch of ice seems like a solid bet. Someone will jackpot around two tenths. Then it all melts Thursday morning and we do it again Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 NAM3 is definitely an outlier in SW ohio, selling widespread 0.1-0.15", but idk if anyone's noticed that it's been way colder than other models these past few weeks. Like, it's got KLUK with a high of 42 on thursday, and the model avg is 50, with HRRR and NBM higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 This looks like a fairly minor "event" around here... Probably a glaze of ice and dusting of snow/sleet/ice pellets. The Euro was most bullish for a while, but then collapsed to the rest of guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, nvck said: NAM3 is definitely an outlier in SW ohio, selling widespread 0.1-0.15", but idk if anyone's noticed that it's been way colder than other models these past few weeks. Like, it's got KLUK with a high of 42 on thursday, and the model avg is 50, with HRRR and NBM higher than that. NAM and NAM3km always underdo temps in the winter and early spring. Especially in dry weather. They don’t mix the boundary layer enough and seem to overcompensate for snow cover too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 yeah euro mid range mirage strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Eh, perfectly fine passing on an ice storm. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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