Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[DJln491]

eh, better than 6z anyway

[dryslot]

Looks like sleet/zr for some areas.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Meh 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like sleet/zr for some areas.

Nothing wrong with that 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing wrong with that 

  on the ice train!

[moneypitmike]

Looks like we'll have more nickles than dimers in the coming weeks.

[dendrite]

Euro looks good

[ORH_wxman]

Euro was def a tick colder than the 06z run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Most folks don’t sniff freezing 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks don’t sniff freezing 

Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning. 

I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95

I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. 
 

If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm. 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that can be reserved for near and SE of 95

And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours

[The 4 Seasons]

Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. 

Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. 

In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close.

 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. 

Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. 

In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close.

 

That’s where my head is. If I can find time to write probably start with a 1-3” snow call statewide with mix to rain, widespread cancellations. Schools won’t risk it even if temps spike earlier in the day.

I could see a final call that’s 2-4” with mix to dry slot/drizzle tomorrow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think most of SNE (and even up into CNE) will spike pretty decently. We have 925mb temps of like +4 or +5 and you mix that down with FROPA. I don’t think it really matters in terms of melting much snow since it’s dry by that point with lower dews and at night so no aid from sun. But it may briefly melt any glaze that happens from during the day. 
 

If we end up with a more suppressed solution though then maybe it never gets that warm. 

These situations where it snowing at sea 20 or 30 or so mile SE of CC while it's pinging and going to zr in ALB, and still snowing moderately in HFD, tend to foster a "tuck" slosh back.  That set up is more correlated to the fact that it is quite cold ahead and thus there is a lot of low level mass --> to meso forcing.

The models are already coherently depicting a closing beta low down over SE mass about 2/3rds of the way thru this, and when that happens, a cold surge my tumble back S out of S NH.

I could see the snow burst going to a freezing drizzle in that cold slosh as the top of the inversion remains saturated.   Yeah, the front scours it all away and that's probably unavoidable. But this is a gainer

[The 4 Seasons]

Advisories up for BOX, 1-4" of snow/sleet/zr. seems about right

[PWMan]

GYX's winter product slashed much of southern/central ME from 4-6 to 1-3, which surprised me based on what I'm seeing in here. Is that a function of less QPF with a more southerly track? Basically a nuisance event either way.

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours

I’ll sell that 

[HoarfrostHubb]

One thing regarding schools. Many districts have had zero snow days.  So less pressure to hesitate calling em off. 

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR is damn cold 

[CoastalWx]

HRRR is meager looking

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR is damn cold with steady flurries 

Yup

[CoastalWx]

NAM is pretty far south but decent thump in SNE.

[cut]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One thing regarding schools. Many districts have had zero snow days.  So less pressure to hesitate calling em off. 

Our schools allow one off day for snow and then it's the ole covid business model - HOME LEARNING. Plus is our school calendar is locked in and the last day is virtually cemented in time - minus is the lack of that last minute fun day off we all had as kids.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM is pretty far south but decent thump in SNE.

Everything seems to be coming south. EC is on its own with that look. Still dont expect a whole lot of snow out of this though. 

[cut]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup

Down here in the tropics of New England that may actually be pretty good.

[metagraphica]

WWA posted

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
309 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-051100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.250206T0900Z-250206T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western
Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
309 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

[CoastalWx]

3K NAM is anemic. Basically a little -SN then sleet/ZR.

[ma blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM is anemic. Basically a little -SN then sleet/ZR.

basically 0.25" > region wide .. where's the beef?