Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[CoastalWx]

Euro argues a little different and maybe what BOX is thinking. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The high is retreating so in theory it is in a lousy position overall.

However,

1) System is flying

2) Good antecedent airmass

3) Even though the low is elongated and not classic for Ageo flow, the cold to me looks locked below 32 from 128/95 down to Nrn/NW RI and into interior CT.

Outside of right along the CT/RI coast and far SE MA...i think everyone stays below 32 for the event and even coastal CT/RI may barely get above 32

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape. 

Yeah I read that early this morning and was like what are they looking at. Then I scrolled down to see who was on the long term . Immediately knew what the issue was, They lost us at “ Belk” 

[Cyclone-68]

I miss the Met who’s in NJ now who used to do the BOX discussions. Always made them fun to read and easy to follow. A storm enthusiast too 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS coming in pretty cold. Decent thump in CT. Looks like advisory snows for most of SNE.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS coming in pretty cold. Decent thump in CT. Looks like advisory snows for most of SNE.

I'm starting to think I can pull of 4". If I add the 2.5" from yesterday that would be 6.5"...that would be 10.8% towards my goal of 60" between yesterday's event and mid-March. 

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS coming in pretty cold. Decent thump in CT. Looks like advisory snows for most of SNE.

Hopeing that 6z Euro was just a blip....everything else seems to be a nice thump down here, even the Long range hrrr and rap were plenty cold to start...

[Prismshine Productions]

I want to know what ALY uses for their in house model engine that has a pure mix event...

[weatherwiz]

This is some impressive WAA...there is certainly going to help with a big thump of snow on the front end.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Big increse on qpf from 06z to 12z on the 12K NAM...     

Not sure I buy that

We've been here before... Let's get other guidance on board

[weathafella]

Based on up to date guidance I’d go 3-5 for mby followed by some pl and ending as drizzle.  SWFE playbook.

[UnitedWx]

Well... it's looking like the GFS is on board. Still looking like a start time around sunrise for the Hartford area?

[SnowGoose69]

23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Hopeing that 6z Euro was just a blip....everything else seems to be a nice thump down here, even the Long range hrrr and rap were plenty cold to start...

06/18z Euro runs the last few years have tended to do some strange stuff.  Should not be happening with today's model ingests but I've seen it more than enough times to know its a tendency at this point

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Well... it's looking like the GFS is on board. Still looking like a start time around sunrise for the Hartford area?

I would probably even go a couple hours prior to Sunrise for start. Maybe even as much as 3 hours. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks like ducky timing.  Late enough start to prevent closing and too early end for early exit.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like ducky timing.  Late enough start to prevent closing and too early end for early exit.

Maybe. Around here they're so scared of litigation that they'll cancel if they smell a flake falling back in Poughkeepsie NY

[Kitz Craver]

This is almost a guarantee for CT school closures 

[weatherwiz]

Thursday morning and afternoon commute will be brutal...roads are going to become a disaster quickly. 

[weatherwiz]

It's pretty impressive seeing how cold MOS/NBM is for tomorrow night...even down in place like EWR/JFK. 

[Typhoon Tip]

probably not worth as much to point out but the 12z ggem looks primarily snow along and N of the pike, with snow in CT/RI for at least some of the front game - an overall colder profile comparing to its 00z run

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's pretty impressive seeing how cold MOS/NBM is for tomorrow night...even down in place like EWR/JFK. 

SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold.  I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold.  I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32.

Agreed

[ineedsnow]

thinking 3 to 5 here with a little sleet and zr at the end

[ineedsnow]

GEFS are pretty meh 

[The 4 Seasons]

12Z trends looks fantastic so far for SNE. Everything coming in colder and south, GGEM, GFS, UKMET looks like a solid 2-5 for most and then ending as some sleet/zr. Thursday looks like a complete mess.

[Winter Wizard]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced no one in SNE sees a changeover to rain. There has been a clear southward shift in the surface low and low-level cold looks to hold on strong. This could be a real mess on Thursday with a thump of snow ending as a mix. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is the beginning of a 3-4 week continuous ice/ snow pack . Something I did not think was possible even a week ago. Wolfie said we just don’t know and he didn’t .Every system will stay below freezing 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is the beginning of a 3-4 week continuous ice/ snow pack . Something I did not think was possible even a week ago. Wolfie said we just don’t know and he didn’t .Every system will stay below freezing 

Calm down

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

I'm becoming increasingly convinced no one in SNE sees a changeover to rain. There has been a clear southward shift in the surface low and low-level cold looks to hold on strong. This could be a real mess on Thursday with a thump of snow ending as a mix. 

yeah the trend has been very clearly pushing south and colder on most models for the past day or so. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Calm down

Get hype !