Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM juiced.

3k is meh

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Narrow area of forcing so although counterintuitive, I think we don't want that over the BM ironically.

You want to be where the ML warm front is…just north of it. The triple point low rides pretty close to it so we’re gonna want it over the Cape/SE MA I think. This run showed a bit more defined bent-back ML warm front than previous runs so I think that’s why it was spitting out better rates. That little vort running out ahead of the main shortwave stayed a bit stronger too which helps with the midlevels.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You want to be where the ML warm front is…just north of it. The triple point low rides pretty close to it so we’re gonna want it over the Cape/SE MA I think. This run showed a bit more defined bent-back ML warm front than previous runs so I think that’s why it was spitting out better rates. That little vort running out ahead of the main shortwave stayed a bit stronger too which helps with the midlevels.  

850 WF looked classic for a thump sitting near S coast.

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

That's an unbelievable stretch of winter weather. That is something I would draw up in my basement. I know they have a lot of lousy winters down that way but when things go right down there the results can be incredible.

That 5-year period in NNJ - March 1956 thru February 1961 - produced a run of big dogs beyond anything I've seen anywhere else.  The fact that the previous 5 winters ranged from poor to ratter merely emphasized the abundance.
The storms:
3/18-19/56    24", low 20s powder
4/8/56           12",  classic birch bender
2/15-16/58    18", with blizzard conditions and temps falling thru the 20s/teens
3/34/60        18", with temps upper teens.  School let out at noon, already 8" new
12/11-12/60   18", with temps low teens, 1st day of NJ firearms deer season
1/19-20/61     20",  temps upper singles to low teens
2/3-4/61       24",  temps mid-upper 20s.  Some guesswork for depth, major blizzard conditions

In 1961, Jan 19 thru Feb 3 NYC temps ranged from -2 to 29.  That 16-day run of sub-32 is easily the site's longest.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

3k is meh

Looked better, but yeah kind of meh. Pretty cold here though.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

850 WF looked classic for a thump sitting near S coast.

Yep and H7 (while a little less defined) was just inland from south coast during the thump. 

If the ML warm front is more diffuse and weak, we’re gonna get those ugly lighter rates. But if we can keep those features more defined, then it’s a nice 4-5 hour thump. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I can attest…there is some fabulous riding in the county. And some areas are thin as you said. Stay away from fields at the moment.  Allagash and Debouile couldn’t have been any better…and Eagle Lake was actually very good too. Down to caribou was decent to good(a little thin as you got towards town in caribou). But they’ve gotten a few more inches since I’ve been there a week ago. So things are improving too. 

Spent the weekend with my friends who live in Presque Isle. They not much if anything there but said similar stuff to you about further north. 

[weatherwiz]

Forecast soundings are pretty wild. Good support for a pretty solid burst of snow for just above everyone (even coast) and probably even enough for something like 3-4" then its an interesting transition of precip type...some areas (especially inland) may flirt with sleet/snow depending on lift/rates. Some soundings looks pretty unstable too.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to be a very narrow area but there may be some spots looking at a decent ZR event. This is going to end up on the colder side in terms of sfc

I’ve been mentioning this but in a sense the speed of this thing moving through appears to outpace the drag/‘scour out’ rate.  

That said … if a meso or preform beta low forms and moves under that would then put the kabosh on warming the interior before it’s all in the books 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Big increse on qpf from 06z to 12z on the 12K NAM...     

Not sure I buy that

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I’ve been mentioning tgis but in a sense the speed of this thing moving through appears to outpace the drag/‘scour out’ rate.  

That said … if a meso or preform beta low forms and moves under that would then put the kabosh on warming the interior before it’s all in the books 

I just got through looking at some soundings...maybe the freezing rain isn't much of a concern as the main ptype outside of snow may be sleet...though I do wonder if just inland of coastal areas would stand a chance...this is where there is a better chance of warming the llvls enough while the sfc stays below freezing.  

[Kitz Craver]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice thumping band for pike on that run. 

How’s it look SOP?

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like what the generalized perspective offered on this last Saturday. Deposited all interpretive peregrinations since … still a 2-4 or 3-5 scenario. 

That should be advisory in headline scale.  However WAA bursts can sometimes overperform …

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Big increse on qpf from 06z to 12z on the 12K NAM...     

Not sure I buy that

I'd buy it...lift is looking much better and that's some very strong WAA. Plenty of moisture being thrown into a cold antecedent airmass. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

How’s it look SOP?

It’s pretty good for most of CT too that run. NAM is still mostly useless at this range though so as usual, we wait for the varsity models. 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Spent the weekend with my friends who live in Presque Isle. They not much if anything there but said similar stuff to you about further north. 

The ride from Northern Door motel in Fort Kent to Deboullie is awesome.  Find lodging in St. Francis or Allagash would shorten the trip, though the 15-mile rail trail along the St. John has its own awesomeness, looking into Canada the whole way.

The run of air-snow has been fun - another 9.5" from Jan 29 thru last night - but a snowstorm with more than 0.2" LE would be welcomed.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to be a tough call for schools and what not  Thursday 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s pretty good for most of CT too that run. NAM is still mostly useless at this range though so as usual, we wait for the varsity models. 

Might not be totally useless right now though...it may be correct on the timing side of things. The differences in timing amongst some of the models right now is wild. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to be a very narrow area but there may be some spots looking at a decent ZR event. This is going to end up on the colder side in terms of sfc

Hopefully 

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might not be totally useless right now though...it may be correct on the timing side of things. The differences in timing amongst some of the models right now is wild. 

NAM seems the quickest so far at 12z  ICON and RGEM are much slower

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX seems caution, to be expected

Latest guidance suite depicting a snow-to-rain scenario Thursday,
with a period of sleet and/or freezing rain thrown in for good
measure. The lack of a high pressure over SE Canada is a strong
indication that low level cold air will not hold for too long.
The progressive nature of this low pressure also not favoring a
large snowfall. The margin for error is really small, as only a
subtle change of a couple of degrees will make a significant
difference. It will be at least another day before these crucial
details come into better focus. The one thing there is high
confidence in is getting measurable precipitation some time
Thursday.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX seems caution, to be expected

Latest guidance suite depicting a snow-to-rain scenario Thursday,
with a period of sleet and/or freezing rain thrown in for good
measure. The lack of a high pressure over SE Canada is a strong
indication that low level cold air will not hold for too long.
The progressive nature of this low pressure also not favoring a
large snowfall. The margin for error is really small, as only a
subtle change of a couple of degrees will make a significant
difference. It will be at least another day before these crucial
details come into better focus. The one thing there is high
confidence in is getting measurable precipitation some time
Thursday.

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM seems the quickest so far at 12z  ICON and RGEM are much slower

These setups tend to be quicker versus slower for precip. arrival so I am almost inclined to side with the NAM timing wise. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape. 

I was just going to mention that. I don't see anything arguing for a surge of warmer temps at the sfc

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM looked a tick cooler. Would be 3-5" for most before it flips/ends

[Typhoon Tip]

Me old favorite FOUS grid ( NAM) has an impressive .5+" liq equiv in one 6-hrly period, between 48 and 54 hours at Logan, and all temperature sigma levels are -1C  ( 980, 900, 800 mb). 

There may or may not be an elevated warm layer;  if not, that's a wall of S with at least an hour or two embedded where approaches S+.  

Gotta figure west of the city out along say Rt 9 and the Pike out to Springfield would pound for a time given these grid interpretations.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape. 

I don't think they, or anyone else for that matter ... ( so I'm alone on this one, what's new haha)  are also considering the speed of the system nuance and the fact that it's out-pacing the time it takes to remove a cold boundary layer... 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape. 

Right, I was thinking more the opposite.

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These setups tend to be quicker versus slower for precip. arrival so I am almost inclined to side with the NAM timing wise. 

The NAM is almost always the slowest model when it comes to start times, the fact its consistently been the earliest for the last 2 days tells me it might be right

[CoastalWx]

The high is retreating so in theory it is in a lousy position overall.

However,

1) System is flying

2) Good antecedent airmass

3) Even though the low is elongated and not classic for Ageo flow, the cold to me looks locked below 32 from 128/95 down to Nrn/NW RI and into interior CT.