Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

For our area (CT), the timing I'm going with is ideal for widespread school cancellations!

Ya John…was thinking that could cancel us out if that’s how it plays out. Thanks. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS looks good for Thursday

[The 4 Seasons]

GFS looks very similar to 18Z

[The 4 Seasons]

EC/GEM also ticking colder

What i find interesting is that GEFS wants nothing to do with the Thursday system, despite the OP being consistently the coldest/farthest south with the LP. Even the GEPS/EPS are much more robust and snowier.

 

[codfishsnowman]

9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Saw it once, way back when I was in HS.  January 15, 1961 was a Sunday and my dad and I went ice fishing that afternoon.  Caught almost nothing, in part because steady ZR froze on the traps, making them non-functional.  About 1/4" accretion when it changed to SN in the evening, with 6" new at sunrise.  95% of the time, an event like that would close the schools, but they had lost 2.5 days in December and a bigger storm was on the horizon, so off we went - no accidents AFAIK.  Thurs-Fri brought a 20" blizzard (Fri was JFK inauguration day in snowy DC) costing another school day and winter's biggest on Feb 3-4 yet another.  Fortunately for schools, that was a Fri-Sat event with Monday off because plows had no place to push the stuff; NJ had depths 30-50" after that one.

That's an unbelievable stretch of winter weather. That is something I would draw up in my basement. I know they have a lot of lousy winters down that way but when things go right down there the results can be incredible.

[moneypitmike]

I guess the fact my p/c is showing 1-2" is the reason this thread only has 5 parges.  

Hopefully the weekend will produce.

[CoastalWx]

Looks good for a few inches at least in many areas Thursday. 

[Kitz Craver]

GFS remains steadfast in advisory snows before slot and drizzle. I don’t think 3-5” is out of the question 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro and GFS are both pretty similar for SNE. 3-5” on the front end. NAM is staying paltry with the QPF but we’re still about 2-3 cycles away from the NAM being worth looking at. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro and GFS are both pretty similar for SNE. 3-5” on the front end. NAM is staying paltry with the QPF but we’re still about 2-3 cycles away from the NAM being worth looking at. 

6z Euro just bumped North and warmer at 6z, not much snow in SNE

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z Euro just bumped North and warmer at 6z, not much snow in SNE

Damn, right when it seemed like it was lining up with the GFS

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z Euro just bumped North and warmer at 6z, not much snow in SNE

Still looks like 3-4” pike northward but yeah, def skimpier to the south. Euro’s been waffling a decent amount on this one relatively speaking so we’ll see if that is the case again. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still looks like 3-4” pike northward but yeah, def skimpier to the south. Euro’s been waffling a decent amount on this one relatively speaking so we’ll see if that is the case again. 

Ya gfs has been very consistent while euro is waffling, let’s see if we can get some agreement on a closer solution today.. 

 

im thinking this is a quick coating to 2” south of the pike, and 2-4” north.. Saturday night trending a bit in that direction too but still plenty of time 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nickels

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow to ice 

[Kitz Craver]

Well 3-5 is obviously more enticing than C-2” considering the pack has been or will be, by the end of today completely vaporized. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Well 3-5 is obviously more enticing than C-2” considering the pack has been or will be, by the end of today completely vaporized. 

3-5 with some IP/ZR has a lot more staying power than C-2…get two of them in a row and then you’re in business for trying to run the table to the end of the month if you can avoid the rogue cutter since there’s prob more threats beyond sunday. 

[dryslot]

3-6" is a good number here on Thursday, And probably again on Sunday too.

[TheMainer]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3-6" is a good number here on Thursday, And probably again on Sunday too.

Think we might be too far north to get much over 3 here, but going to open another trail tonight with the groomer and planning to try the last two Friday night. Not gonna be stellar, but will be a lot better than it currently is ungroomed 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Think we might be too far north to get much over 3 here, but going to open another trail tonight with the groomer and planning to try the last two Friday night. Not gonna be stellar, but will be a lot better than it currently is ungroomed 

That's good, Looks like conditions are good over there where you are, I was suppose to go the to the county for a couple days this week but i'm busy at work and could not make it up, Looks like conditions up there were ok but thin in spots.

[TheMainer]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That's good, Looks like conditions are good over there where you are, I was suppose to go the to the county for a couple days this week but i'm busy at work and could not make it up, Looks like conditions up there were ok but thin in spots.

Yeah my house is one of the furthest south places you'd want to leave from, seems to be a snow hole from me to Newport and then Auburn looked like more snow yesterday down by you when I went to the office. If we can pull off a foot in the next 10-12 days then things will be pretty damn good for school vacation week, probably the best conditions for that week in 5 years if we can avoid a cutter

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's good, Looks like conditions are good over there where you are, I was suppose to go the to the county for a couple days this week but i'm busy at work and could not make it up, Looks like conditions up there were ok but thin in spots.

I can attest…there is some fabulous riding in the county. And some areas are thin as you said. Stay away from fields at the moment.  Allagash and Debouile couldn’t have been any better…and Eagle Lake was actually very good too. Down to caribou was decent to good(a little thin as you got towards town in caribou). But they’ve gotten a few more inches since I’ve been there a week ago. So things are improving too. 

[dryslot]

40 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Yeah my house is one of the furthest south places you'd want to leave from, seems to be a snow hole from me to Newport and then Auburn looked like more snow yesterday down by you when I went to the office. If we can pull off a foot in the next 10-12 days then things will be pretty damn good for school vacation week, probably the best conditions for that week in 5 years if we can avoid a cutter

The issue around here is there's no base to speak of, These past few storms have been all powder, Looks like the club got out and panned some trails,  I think we should be good the rest of the month, Nothing really looks cutterish to me up here ATT, We may not get all of them as some of these going forward remain south but we look to be in good shape now going forward.

[CoastalWx]

NAM juiced.

[dryslot]

Shifted north as it was pretty far south at this lead.

[TheMainer]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The issue around here is there's no base to speak of, These past few storms have been all powder, Looks like the club got out and panned some trails,  I think we should be good the rest of the month, Nothing really looks cutterish to me up here ATT, We may not get all of them as some of these going forward remain south but we look to be in good shape now going forward.

Yeah we were lucky to maintain at least an inch or two of crusty ice/snow (up to 8 inches in higher elevations) since around Thanksgiving which has been helping tremendously, don't think we'd be doing anything if we didn't have that. Hoping you guys can cash in and establish a good base, I'd like to ride south towards at least Skowhegan or further this year since we've been getting a little burnt out of our area north thats been the only riding possible for 5 years

[weatherwiz]

Probably going to be a very narrow area but there may be some spots looking at a decent ZR event. This is going to end up on the colder side in terms of sfc

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM juiced.

Nice thumping band for pike on that run. 

[dryslot]

Just now, TheMainer said:

Yeah we were lucky to maintain at least an inch or two of crusty ice/snow (up to 8 inches in higher elevations) since around Thanksgiving which has been helping tremendously, don't think we'd be doing anything if we didn't have that. Hoping you guys can cash in and establish a good base, I'd like to ride south towards at least Skowhegan or further this year since we've been getting a little burnt out of our area north thats been the only riding possible for 5 years

I haven't rode local in years, In order to do so, I have to head NW and your rolling the dice on numerous clubs even maintaining the trails, Once you get to Jay, Then its good heading right towards the Rangeley area but its to get there can be problematic especially over the last few years with some of these big rain and wind storms, Not sure if some of these clubs that are shorthanded even went out to cut trees or replace bridges.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nice thumping band for pike on that run. 

Narrow area of forcing so although counterintuitive, I think we don't want that over the BM ironically.