Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[TheMainer]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

18z Mammy came in snowy and much colder compared to 12z

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha... that's an interesting thought.  I was haven't considered them in aggregate. 

I've see that only once around here, though ...way back in the late 1980s.  There was a nondescript icing event and then it got cold. I remember still hearing that crinkling sound when the wind would blow through the trees like 4 days later. Then, there was a nor'easter brewing and there was concern for wind and snow loading on the ice but it didn't actually become an issue.  

Saw it once, way back when I was in HS.  January 15, 1961 was a Sunday and my dad and I went ice fishing that afternoon.  Caught almost nothing, in part because steady ZR froze on the traps, making them non-functional.  About 1/4" accretion when it changed to SN in the evening, with 6" new at sunrise.  95% of the time, an event like that would close the schools, but they had lost 2.5 days in December and a bigger storm was on the horizon, so off we went - no accidents AFAIK.  Thurs-Fri brought a 20" blizzard (Fri was JFK inauguration day in snowy DC) costing another school day and winter's biggest on Feb 3-4 yet another.  Fortunately for schools, that was a Fri-Sat event with Monday off because plows had no place to push the stuff; NJ had depths 30-50" after that one.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

18z Mammy came in snowy and much colder compared to 12z

Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. 

Yeah but it had almost no snow at 12z. Just noting . Better than it showing the warm tongue up the rear this far out 

[ineedsnow]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. 

GFS also looks good

[Kitz Craver]

I’ll definitely take what the GFS is offering 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ll definitely take what the GFS is offering 

Pretty solid advisory snows on the front end all the way into SW CT. Then a period of IP/ZR before dryslotting. Decent little event if it can break that way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nam/ GFS/ GGEM/ Reggie / Ukie vs

     Euro 

[DJln491]

Would take the gfs right now.  Few inches followed by brief period of rain/mix. Probably as good as it gets for us in CT

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Would take the gfs right now.  Few inches followed by brief period of rain/mix. Probably as good as it gets for us in CT

Coastal 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save  for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save  for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. 

Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? 

More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast. 

Ok…that would be real nice. 

[Damage In Tolland]

And the Euro folds again 

[Spanks45]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save  for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. 

I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought?

Modeling starting to pick up on The blocking perhaps,  starting to pick up on the press as we close in on these events…?

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok…that would be real nice. 

Would suck for me... I have to drive to Norwood for training all day and then home...  blah.

If it started earlier...

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would suck for me... I have to drive to Norwood for training all day and then home...  blah.

If it started earlier...

What if they cancelled school…? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What if they cancelled school…? 

That’s what I’m trying to find out

[Kitz Craver]

26 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought?

Will mentioned it a couple days ago I believe. These aren’t shallow fake cold air masses that scour out on approach, these have more staying power and are more deeply entrenched 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Will mentioned it a couple days ago I believe. These aren’t shallow fake cold air masses that scour out on approach, these have more staying power and are more deeply entrenched 

Sludgy 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought?

I’m not sure if it’s going to be a consistent bias in modeling, but when you have very dense arctic low level airmasses in place, it’s a decent recipe for colder corrections on model guidance. Especially if you have some semblance of high resistance to the north or northeast. If you don’t, then that midlevel warm punch can scream in quickly. (Sometimes it does anyway) 

But it’s been a few winters since we had a lot of consistent arctic cold anchored over our region prior to storms coming out of the OH valley. 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Modeling starting to pick up on The blocking perhaps,  starting to pick up on the press as we close in on these events…?

Sure hope so, might be time to finally get something work in our favor...feels like years since we had some luck

[CoastalWx]

Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too.

ya looks meh

[UnitedWx]

19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya looks meh

Couldn't/shouldn't care less about the NAM at this range!

[The 4 Seasons]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too.

 

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya looks meh

Yeah but the trend is good, itll figure it out. That model is like if the clown range had a clown range. But its good to see it go in that direction rather than opposite anyway..

 

[FXWX]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? 

For our area (CT), the timing I'm going with is ideal for widespread school cancellations!