Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[WxWatcher007]

I mean the snow seems like a bust, but the ice will produce. A very cold 20.5° with sleet and maybe a little more than a half inch of snow before the mix line blasted above me. 

[NoCORH4L]

Is the radar supposed to blossom some? Looks a little weak right now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was hoping for 2", but given sleet to about Kevin now and radar looking like a rusty coat hanger..not sure.

NAMs ftw

[dendrite]

-SN in CON. Coating. 

[dryslot]

13z RAP rather beefy for CNE to here.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs ftw

Yeah this event blows. Oh well. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs ftw

The NAM gets tossed way too easily. When it comes to the finer details and mesoscale influences the NAM can do a pretty damn good job. I've come to really like taking the major global models for the synoptics and larger-scale features/evolutions and then applying how the NAM is handling the mesoscale to better define/fine tune expectations. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Won’t even get an inch here and for most of CT,  It’s not too early to call it. Bust 

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAM gets tossed way too easily. When it comes to the finer details and mesoscale influences the NAM can do a pretty damn good job. I've come to really like taking the major global models for the synoptics and larger-scale features/evolutions and then applying how the NAM is handling the mesoscale to better define/fine tune expectations. 

I like it inside 24-36 hrs, Outside of that window not much use.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16° SN  .5” or so in downtown Greenfield. 

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs ftw

The 6z Nam 10:1 looked almost spot on....Euro, Rap, and others were way too snowy to our south

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs ftw

I had some wise ass comment but eh, why should we be surprised this winter. The snow fails but the mixed bag will be plenty impactful.
 

[moneypitmike]

Maybe it'll pick up.  But so far, what a bust......tiny flakes.  Grass still poking through.

[mahk_webstah]

Snowing moderate increasing.  Growth improving.  Radar makes it look like a 3 hour storm.  Hopefully redevelopment as tho moves ne.  Wunderground dropped from 4.9 to 3.6.  6.2 degrees

[cardinalland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I like it inside 24-36 hrs, Outside of that window not much use.

i like your pfp. I used that image for my super bowl party invitation haha.

 

Weather related my area has been warming quickly since the change-over to sleet. PWS in the area are showing 28-31 now. but the precipitation will get a lot spottier after about 10:30am.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

The 6z Nam 10:1 looked almost spot on....Euro, Rap, and others were way too snowy to our south

Then the 12z came out...............

[Sugarloaf1989]

About a 1/2" of snow It's cold though.  18F.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I like it inside 24-36 hrs, Outside of that window not much use.

I've always thought that way too, however, I've changed my stance on that thinking. 

Obviously everyone has their own preference, but I actually like to start looking at finer details even 3-4-5 days out....not necessarily for creating a forecast, but to just have an understanding or an idea of what would happen if this was unfolding in real time. 

I think there is great benefit in the forecasting process to look at finer details that far out because you can assess those trends with the trends of the entire storm evolution as its modeled and versus real time. 

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The 6z Nam 10:1 looked almost spot on....Euro, Rap, and others were way too snowy to our south

One model gave me 4 inches consistently run to run, I'll be lucky to get an inch, we have more in the pipeline so maybe they do better.

[LSC97wxnut]

1/2S with decent flakes coming down.  Everything is coated. 27.3*

[WxWatcher007]

Back to mostly snow here in East Hartford 

[wxeyeNH]

6F Moderate snow

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I've always thought that way too, however, I've changed my stance on that thinking. 

Obviously everyone has their own preference, but I actually like to start looking at finer details even 3-4-5 days out....not necessarily for creating a forecast, but to just have an understanding or an idea of what would happen if this was unfolding in real time. 

I think there is great benefit in the forecasting process to look at finer details that far out because you can assess those trends with the trends of the entire storm evolution as its modeled and versus real time. 

Yeah, I probably should've rephrased that, It does give you a general idea of possible trends, The Nam is really good i think at picking up on a warm tongue when others models don't, Its tough to deny if it still shows that once inside the window i mentioned.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I probably should've rephrased that, It does give you a general idea of possible trends, The Nam is really good i think at picking up on a warm tongue when others models don't, Its tough to deny if it still shows that once inside the window i mentioned.

I remember being burned way too many times not buying the warm tongue haha. One big case was the PDII in 2007 (or was that PDI?)

[dendrite]

3.6° SN/+SN

Big lull coming in north of CON though 

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I remember being burned way too many times not buying the warm tongue haha. One big case was the PDII in 2007 (or was that PDI?)

It really seems to be able sniff out the mid level warmth, Hence the old adage *Beware the Warm Tongue*

[weatherwiz]

Basically pixie dust out there right now....yuck. It's the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 season outside

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I imagine the radar will backfill a bit or is this a two hour storm and done?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

just over 1/2" here...now above freezing. lame. not really a surprise, mesos weren't really trending in our favor yesterday evening. 

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back to mostly snow here in East Hartford 

Yeah it has been off and on light snow here....despite the early changeover, it went back to snow despite the lighter returns. I would typically expect freezing drizzle by now. Temp is holding at 25.3⁰