Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Presuming the euro is dead wrong. I'm thinking compromised solution at the moment, just because there are not enough compelling reasons to go with either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Looks good to stay mainly frozen away from coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm thinking compromised solution at the moment, just because there are not enough compelling reasons to go with either Yeah the euro seems extreme but it’s a flag for those expecting a yesterday gfs solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM 18Z Gfs looks like snow to mix but decent thump for 2025 standards. Talking pike region and south. Mostly snow nop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM 51 minutes ago, weathafella said: 18Z Gfs looks like snow to mix but decent thump for 2025 standards. Talking pike region and south. Mostly snow nop Yeah looked a bit colder. Not buying it verbatim but maybe we can tick euro a little colder and at least get a bit of snow on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 11:37 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:37 PM 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah looked a bit colder. Not buying it verbatim but maybe we can tick euro a little colder and at least get a bit of snow on the front end. Been an exceptional year for shorter lead model fights. 96 hrs and these models are throwin haymakers …in 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM 18z Euro somewhat colder for Wed Nite event. Stays snow longer before mixing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z Euro somewhat colder for Wed Nite event. Stays snow longer before mixing Yeah it did. I’d like to see another tick but it did give a couple of inches on the front. This isn’t a very juicy system anyway though, so I’m mostly hoping we can get a few inches and triple point the sfc low so we get a net gain. I’m not setting the bar very high on this one. But there’s def a model war. GFS doesn’t even come close to sniffing freezing over interior…even where the snow flips to sleet/ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it did. I’d like to see another tick but it did give a couple of inches on the front. This isn’t a very juicy system anyway though, so I’m mostly hoping we can get a few inches and triple point the sfc low so we get a net gain. I’m not setting the bar very high on this one. But there’s def a model war. GFS doesn’t even come close to sniffing freezing over interior…even where the snow flips to sleet/ZR. You can kind of envision what may happen. 1-3 to start then few hours of sleet to zr inland and probably rot at 32 ish and places SE of a HVN to IJD to PVD line warm up above to plain rain for a bit . Being such a weak system that triple points with solid pack on ground from tonight and first part of that storm doesn’t scream warmth getting very far NW. GFS too cold probably 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:58 AM I’ll take the Nam at hr 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM American vs European Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM altho I haven’t seen the 0 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted yesterday at 03:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:23 AM American vs European Ford vs. Ferrari Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 10:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:14 AM 00z Euro colder yet again. triple point SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:01 AM 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 00z Euro colder yet again. triple point SE Looks like we all go to rain for a bit though. A few inches to a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Gfs keeps areas below 32 until we mix out with fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:05 AM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs keeps areas below 32 until we mix out with fropa. That’s how i envision it. Limited mixing , weak low , triple point. Keep it near 32 until west wind for a few hours ahead of cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 01:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:12 PM 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s how i envision it. Limited mixing , weak low , triple point. Keep it near 32 until west wind for a few hours ahead of cold front I’d like to see euro go another tick colder, but yeah, we might get a net gain out of this if we can keep that triple point low coherent enough. 06z euro was like 2-3” for the pike region before the flip. Maybe just a smidge less for your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:29 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:29 PM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs keeps areas below 32 until we mix out with fropa. This is the way I have been leaning ...more GFS in this synoptic circumstance. This is more of an intangible - meaning difficult to put in empirically backed terms ... - but the Euro's decimal small bias to back hold events, tends to tip the flow vaguely too much S-N. Contrasting, the GFS with its decimal small speed bias, will tend to stretch the flow W-E. Before applying either of these models to the circumstantial hemisphere, that circumstance thus favors the GFS' handling in tis case. Compression is making the GFS better this season on whole, btw. LOL Like I said ..difficult to prove, because their handling biases are pretty vague at this point. But the ultra thread needle rifle patterns, decimals changes in track mean significant profile differences over smaller distances. Fwiw, I am noticing that of the corrections, altho small in either case, the Euro's been doing more of it. This is still also a blazing fast minor event - it's probably a good thing that this junket last night used up everyone's attention because this thing for the 6th is like a 3.5 hour burst of moderate snow, 1.5 hours of lighter pingers, ending as drizzle or valley freezing drizzle. 3-4" maybe a 5" and I like your story line there where the temp pops with the occluded boundary. Could jump from 34.5 ish to 43 for an hour or two with mad dripping. Kind of like a 00z UKMET on whole. Fast fast fast. I'm even imagining this thing speeding up if anything by an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 01:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:34 PM 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d like to see euro go another tick colder, but yeah, we might get a net gain out of this if we can keep that triple point low coherent enough. 06z euro was like 2-3” for the pike region before the flip. Maybe just a smidge less for your area. These usually are 1-3” south of 90 to ice here while IJD to Ginx gets above freezing. Reggie has quite a period of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM Looks like 3-6"+ Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Seems a hard one to avoid a snowday here. Especially if things stay all frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:48 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 PM It may snow pretty hard for a couple hours in NE Mass in that Euro solution. Even with Pivotal's 6-hourly cinema speed, it looks to me like there's a pretty good isentropic burst between hours 84 and 90, which probably means blossoms intensity on the ground up there. I'm not looking at any interpretive MOS-related graphics...just noting the QPF distribution/surge from Brian's to E of Boston axis that suddenly appears at hour 90. In fact, all the guidance I've seen now are doing something similar. Its a matter of when in the total system translation. The UKMET has the "in like a wall" look at 87 over western zone. Kind of like it's flurries to 1/4 mi vis in 5 to 10 minutes. GGEM is pure sleet event - bit of an operational outlier but possible... The GFS brings those 2.24" diameter jagged-edged cotton ball thumpers before flipping the Pike to drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted yesterday at 02:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:22 PM 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like 3-6"+ Thursday. Wunderground has been inching up for here. 4+. To add to the 10 1/2 inches of pack in the woods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM NAM appears to be coming in S ...but it's only out to 60 hours, and the model is piece of rhino dung at this range ... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Not a lot of snow on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Nam looks good up here, 0.88" qpf, Probably 8-9:1 ratio, 4-8" snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM FWIW, which isn’t much at this lead. An inch of slop on the NAM for Thursday, not too impressed… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Just now, Kitz Craver said: FWIW, which isn’t much at this lead. An inch of slop on the NAM for Thursday, not too impressed… Speaking SOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not a lot of snow on the Nam. Yeah, the solution didn't really evolve S .. but either way, it's not been the snowier of guidance. no worries for snow mongering, considering the product and range - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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