Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[George001]

I’m feeling pretty good about avoiding a ratter now for my area, but not sold that we get to average. All depends if those incredibly annoying last second rug pulls happen or not. While I do expect Feb to be snowier than Jan and end up being the snowiest month of the season (which is typical), I need to see actual snow in my backyard before going all in. After jumping the gun last storm and only getting 5 inches, I’m a bit hesitant to really go big (2ft + month) especially with the fast flow. I’m thinking the long range clown maps are somewhat overdone and we end up with a 15-20 inch month rather than a historic month.

[iceman1]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

probably more in the way of cancellations then delays you think?

cancel you blink and the cancel in ct they cancel when its to hot 

[SJonesWX]

Last winter I had 57”, but it was a rat (average around 70”). I say rat because almost 20 of those 57” came after 3/23 which is too late for this guy. just a stat-padder. Also a rat because I got 4” in February, which is normally the snowiest month.

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Is everything below average a rat?  I'd have to do a JSpin standard deviation calculation (which I'm not capable of) and put it those terms to figure it out.  I average around 100" per year here but if I got to 80" or 85" and had coverage for the vast majority of the year, it may not be great but I couldn't call it a rat.  Last year, I got about 110" but there was a lot of melting and bare ground.  That's closer to a rat than the first situation, at least to me.

You are not wrong

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

cancel you blink and the cancel in ct they cancel when its to hot 

i can't decipher this

[WinterWolf]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i can't decipher this

Poorly written…but he’s saying cancel not delays…I think. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Poorly written…but he’s saying cancel not delays…I think. 

cancellations are warranted imo. its not all about snow amounts. its just one factor. its way more nuanced than that. you can a wet snow 3-6" overnight that doesnt accumulate much on roads and melts by morning and the roads are fine by 7AM

[mreaves]

43 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Shows the difference last season was for us, you hit 110, but Brattleboro only had 42.5" (which was below the average of 56.5)

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

Well, I do have 120 miles of latitude and almost 700' in elevation on you.

[Layman]

32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i can't decipher this

[dryslot]

WWA for 3-5".

[CoastalWx]

NAM flaccid. Good thump srn CT into RI. 

[The 4 Seasons]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM flaccid. Good thump srn CT into RI. 

its getting better each run though, finally coming into reality a bit

[The 4 Seasons]

40 minutes ago, Layman said:

literally burst out laughing at this

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM flaccid. Good thump srn CT into RI. 

Yeah models were showing some lollis down here this morning. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

probably more in the way of cancellations then delays you think?

Yes... They are rolling in... They don't want to delay and then switch to a cancellation.  Most have made up their mind to announce early this evening.... Which I always gets me nervous about...  I never recommend that but parents want to know the night before.... one of these days it will end up partly sunny.  

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

Last winter I had 57”, but it was a rat (average around 70”). I say rat because almost 20 of those 57” came after 3/23 which is too late for this guy. just a stat-padder. Also a rat because I got 4” in February, which is normally the snowiest month.

My favorite stat from up here (similar seasonal average) last winter was that I had more snow in April (8.0") than December, February, and March combined (7.0")

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Is everything below average a rat?  I'd have to do a JSpin standard deviation calculation (which I'm not capable of) and put it those terms to figure it out.  I average around 100" per year here but if I got to 80" or 85" and had coverage for the vast majority of the year, it may not be great but I couldn't call it a rat.  Last year, I got about 110" but there was a lot of melting and bare ground.  That's closer to a rat than the first situation, at least to me.

Our average here has hovered near 90" as we reach the middle of our 27th snow season.  From purely a snowfall aspect, anything in the 80s or 90s is near normal.  70s is BN and 60s near ratter (or full ratter on a mega-frustrating season like 2009-10), <60" is down the rat hole.  Subjective values come into play - sustained pack despite near-ratter snow (2002-03) elevates a winter and so would one or more events 12"+.  Nearby bombs while we mostly watch (Nemo, 14-15) downgrade winters.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

Last winter I had 57”, but it was a rat (average around 70”). I say rat because almost 20 of those 57” came after 3/23 which is too late for this guy. just a stat-padder. Also a rat because I got 4” in February, which is normally the snowiest month.

Understandable, but here the post-equinox snow was such as to un-rat the winter.  The 40.9" topped even the spring snowfall in Fort Kent 
Also, 2 of the 3 storms were overperformers:  1-2 became 5" on 3/21 then 10-16 for 23-24 verified at 22.0".  The 13.9" in April landed within the 12-18 forecast.

Edit:  The Farmington "triad" grew up in the afternoon forecast.  This morning it was 1-3-4 and now its 2-4-7.  

[DavisStraight]

Most of CT gets the thump, it slides just below me, hopefully its off by 10-20 miles.

[mahk_webstah]

New from WPC. One to 2 inch per band but fast moving

Farther north into Upstate NY and New England, much of the
precipitation is expected to fall as snow. The intensifying WAA
will result in a band of heavy snow as the resultant 850-700mb fgen
drives intense ascent into the DGZ just above. This will cause a
burst of snow lifting SW to NE Thursday, first in the Poconos, then
all points northeast, including New York City and Boston. Snowfall
rates within this burst could reach 1-2"/hr as reflected by the WPC
prototype snowband tool and HREF probabilities, but rapid
translation of this band northeast will somewhat limit total
accumulations. Still, substantial impacts are likely, and WPC
probabilities are high (>70%) for more than 4" of snow in the
higher terrain from the Adirondacks into the Greens and Whites,
with lesser accumulations likely in the lower elevations.
 

[WinterWolf]

My town just called it…we off. 

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM QPF is now under .25" liq eq at Logan.  

If that fugger coups that's be a hoot

[tavwtby]

Winsted just cancelled too, my son is pissed because that means basketball practice is off, even though it's at 8-9 tomorrow night... I'd be too, looking like a nice couple hours of thump and we refresh in a couple days with possibilities for more...days and days....

[Patrick-02540]

The conference call must have ended at 5pm.  All the schools dropped the hammer just after.  Cancellations galore, statewide, as expected. 

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

The conference call must have ended at 5pm.  All the schools dropped the hammer just after.  Cancellations galore, statewide, as expected. 

Yes...  actually, ended a bit earlier but most districts like to wait until into the 5 to 6 pm period...

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Winsted just cancelled too, my son is pissed because that means basketball practice is off, even though it's at 8-9 tomorrow night... I'd be too, looking like a nice couple hours of thump and we refresh in a couple days with possibilities for more...days and days....

That's a policy that varies district to district...  I have many districts inquiring about the evening weather trends with hopes of holding events...  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That's a policy that varies district to district...  I have many districts inquiring about the evening weather trends with hopes of holding events...  

When my 2 daughters were in HS playing  soccer / hoops, if school was cancelled . All pm activities were also canceled . But that was when America was not great . 

[ineedsnow]

Hoping the RGEM is right for here