Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[FXWX]

39 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah down here by 7:30 we’re going pretty good

Based on the history of these morning events in CT, this will be a widespread cancellation day in CT...  Most normal bus runs start by 6:30 and finish around 9:30 am.  Every town DPW has a different view on how to handle their routines; there is always some consideration of budget issues... Bus companies are averse to doing bus routes, especially off the main roads during ongoing snow, sleet or freezing rain periods.  We have to discussion every year, and all I will say is the combination of tremendous numbers of student drivers now compared to years ago, parental input, insurance cost worries, and the input from others during the decision-making period (4:00 to 4:30 am), there is a tendency to just cancel not be stressed for 3 to 5 hours.  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Having the cowboys suck year after year is helping!   

Congrats Chiefs on another SB ring!

[codfishsnowman]

5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This look has been there for about 10-15 days.. It's just coming to fruition now

Well everyday I checked in over the past couple weeks generally felt like I was at a funeral 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Well everyday I checked in over the past couple weeks generally felt like I was at a funeral 

It was…you’re right. Till about a week ago. But before that it was gonna be a definite rat if you listened to most. A few still think it will. 

[Spanks45]

Euro looks south to me...with some drizzle tomorrow afternoon

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was…you’re right. Till about a week ago. But before that it was gonna be a definite rat if you listened to most. A few still think it will. 

I’d still lean that this will be a rat… just a weaker rat. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’d still lean that this will be a rat… just a weaker rat. 

Sure, It’s possible, but I think that possibility is starting to look less likely. 

[codfishsnowman]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was…you’re right. Till about a week ago. But before that it was gonna be a definite rat if you listened to most. A few still think it will. 

At least there's something to look out for 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh IDK...it seems like local municipalities have really started "slacking off" over the years. And I put slacking off in quotes because I just wonder if its budget related reasons...almost like many towns are preferring for a good chunk of the storms to be over before going heavy with road crews and reducing OT pay.  

Remember though Springfield is notoriously poor at efficient snow and ice removal. Gets almost the least snow and has the worst road conditions.

[WxWatcher007]

Just speaking for CT, I agree with @weatherwiz and @FXWX. While it’s not a lot of precip in the whole scheme of things, the icing likelihood and timing is enough for widespread cancellations. You’re going to have pretty cold surfaces, and much of the state will be below freezing most of tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how “tough” you think you are—a glaze of ice will put you on your ass or send your car into something or someone. It’s not like society is shutting down for a week lol.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh IDK...it seems like local municipalities have really started "slacking off" over the years. And I put slacking off in quotes because I just wonder if its budget related reasons...almost like many towns are preferring for a good chunk of the storms to be over before going heavy with road crews and reducing OT pay.  

Some maybe a little, but in my eyes there's WAY more focus on the roads during storms now than say what I remember as a kid in the 70s through into the 80s. It changed drastically in the early 90s when we actually started getting regular snow events again. When I was a kid it was normal to not see blacktop for a couple days on secondary roads after a storm if temps were right. IMO there's an over obsession with clearing roads during storms now

[mreaves]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’d still lean that this will be a rat… just a weaker rat. 

 

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure, It’s possible, but I think that possibility is starting to look less likely. 

It's also possible, probably likely, that it ends up somewhere between a rat and great.  Most winters do.

[weathafella]

Look at the euro become the coldest model this morning.  GFS is the Euro’s daddy.

[weatherwiz]

34 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Remember though Springfield is notoriously poor at efficient snow and ice removal. Gets almost the least snow and has the worst road conditions.

 

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Some maybe a little, but in my eyes there's WAY more focus on the roads during storms now than say what I remember as a kid in the 70s through into the 80s. It changed drastically in the early 90s when we actually started getting regular snow events again. When I was a kid it was normal to not see blacktop for a couple days on secondary roads after a storm if temps were right. IMO there's an over obsession with clearing roads during storms now

Growing up in West Hartford, the town was phenomenal with roads...probably was a huge reason why we didn't have a ton of cancellations growing up. It didn't matter the size of the storm, it seemed West Hartford got the roads clear down to bare cement...meanwhile, you went to Hartford...DISASTER. I always got a kick out of right along the town line...West Hartford side, spotless, Hartford side...disaster. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Look at the euro become the coldest model this morning.  GFS is the Euro’s daddy.

It’s been a rough winter for King Euro

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Growing up in West Hartford, the town was phenomenal with roads...probably was a huge reason why we didn't have a ton of cancellations growing up. It didn't matter the size of the storm, it seemed West Hartford got the roads clear down to bare cement...meanwhile, you went to Hartford...DISASTER. I always got a kick out of right along the town line...West Hartford side, spotless, Hartford side...disaster. 

I've seen exactly what you're talking about! My Great Grandmother lived on Roslyn Street in Hartford RIGHT on the line, Trout Brook was always nice... then turn the corner and it was another world

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

It's also possible, probably likely, that it ends up somewhere between a rat and great.  Most winters do.

I need around 50” to get to average-ish.  Possible?  Sure.   Not sure it happens.  
The next couple weeks should put a good dent in that though.  

[UnitedWx]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just speaking for CT, I agree with @weatherwiz and @FXWX. While it’s not a lot of precip in the whole scheme of things, the icing likelihood and timing is enough for widespread cancellations. You’re going to have pretty cold surfaces, and much of the state will be below freezing most of tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how “tough” you think you are—a glaze of ice will put you on your ass or send your car into something or someone. It’s not like society is shutting down for a week lol.

I think the glaze of ice idea has been GREATLY overstated, but I understand what you're saying

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I think the glaze of ice idea has been GREATLY overstated, but I understand what you're saying

A colder trend would be great for mitigating the risk, which is definitely on the table given recent guidance. 

I love any wintry precip personally but when I lived in DC in my early 20s we had an ice event I’ll never forget. Walked outside to warm up the car and when I hit the first step down God as my witness I went flying. It’s a miracle I didn’t crack my skull but I have matching scars on my forearms as a reminder of what ice can do.

Still loved that storm.  

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A colder trend would be great for mitigating the risk, which is definitely on the table given recent guidance. 

I love any wintry precip personally but when I lived in DC in my early 20s we had an ice event I’ll never forget. Walked outside to warm up the car and when I hit the first step down God as my witness I went flying. It’s a miracle I didn’t crack my skull but I have matching scars on my forearms as a reminder of what ice can do.

Still loved that storm.  

Still love that movie!

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Still love that movie!

Christmas tradition in this house 

[FXWX]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just speaking for CT, I agree with @weatherwiz and @FXWX. While it’s not a lot of precip in the whole scheme of things, the icing likelihood and timing is enough for widespread cancellations. You’re going to have pretty cold surfaces, and much of the state will be below freezing most of tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how “tough” you think you are—a glaze of ice will put you on your ass or send your car into something or someone. It’s not like society is shutting down for a week lol.

It's always about timing.  While everyone can argue what to do or what not to do, if is snowing, sleeting or icing during the school transportation period, they are delaying or cancelling; tomorrow even delays have buses on the road during ongoing winter precip; and it's all road conditions, not just main roads.  Lastly, insurance companies want school grounds cleared and treated prior to student arrivals...  I'm not saying what's right or wrong... Just stating the facts...

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I need around 50” to get to average-ish.  Possible?  Sure.   Not sure it happens.  
The next couple weeks should put a good dent in that though.  

Is everything below average a rat?  I'd have to do a JSpin standard deviation calculation (which I'm not capable of) and put it those terms to figure it out.  I average around 100" per year here but if I got to 80" or 85" and had coverage for the vast majority of the year, it may not be great but I couldn't call it a rat.  Last year, I got about 110" but there was a lot of melting and bare ground.  That's closer to a rat than the first situation, at least to me.

[The 4 Seasons]

12 minutes ago, FXWX said:

It's always about timing.  While everyone can argue what to do or what not to do, if is snowing, sleeting or icing during the school transportation period, they are delaying or cancelling; tomorrow even delays have buses on the road during ongoing winter precip; and it's all road conditions, not just main roads.  Lastly, insurance companies want school grounds cleared and treated prior to student arrivals...  I'm not saying what's right or wrong... Just stating the facts...

probably more in the way of cancellations then delays you think?

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I need around 50” to get to average-ish.  Possible?  Sure.   Not sure it happens.  
The next couple weeks should put a good dent in that though.  

How much of that do you need to negate ratter vs subpar?  For me (and I obviously get less than you) 30 is subpar but the bottom of non ratter.  Anything under is a rat.  To me you can only use ratter in the worst winters.  And that should stand since I started the use of the term which is variation of “this winter blows dead rats” which we shortened to ratter.  The blows dead rats term came from this guy in college who would say things like “this blows dead rats”.   I know you probably remember all of this but we have a ton of posters who weren’t around when we started it 15-20 years ago.

[Prismshine Productions]

Is everything below average a rat?  I'd have to do a JSpin standard deviation calculation (which I'm not capable of) and put it those terms to figure it out.  I average around 100" per year here but if I got to 80" or 85" and had coverage for the vast majority of the year, it may not be great but I couldn't call it a rat.  Last year, I got about 110" but there was a lot of melting and bare ground.  That's closer to a rat than the first situation, at least to me.

Shows the difference last season was for us, you hit 110, but Brattleboro only had 42.5" (which was below the average of 56.5)

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

It's always about timing.  While everyone can argue what to do or what not to do, if is snowing, sleeting or icing during the school transportation period, they are delaying or cancelling; tomorrow even delays have buses on the road during ongoing winter precip; and it's all road conditions, not just main roads.  Lastly, insurance companies want school grounds cleared and treated prior to student arrivals...  I'm not saying what's right or wrong... Just stating the facts...

With where we are now and the ability for people to work from home and even with remote learning, if there is snow, sleet, or freezing rain in the forecast, why make people have to go out and drive. I know not everyone has the luxury to do that (such as essential workers) but if you have people who can work from home or offer remote learning...whatever makes people not need to travel, do it. I know with the remote learning this brings a whole new issue of child care but it's frustrating when you hear about accidents/deaths because of icy roads or weather conditions. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Shows the difference last season was for us, you hit 110, but Brattleboro only had 42.5" (which was below the average of 56.5)

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

You're probably more like 68". 

[iceman1]

ice ice baby

[WxWatcher007]

For me there’s objective and subjective criteria for a ratter. If I average 45-50 and I’m like half of that, it’s a rat or close to it. But was there a nice stretch in there or a really awful stretch? A bunch of factors apply for me.