Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah agreed .. we're not lingering as a behavior, most likely, in this pattern for any of these over these two weeks.

They're screwing right along, in and out apace.  When they're done, 2 hours later its clearing probably... The region already having special statements being written for the next in what is interestingly an oddly stable guidance thing going on...

6th ... 9th ... maybe 12th and then the 14th, they're all in play, having ( rather ironically ... ) dependable continuity for actually happening across all the guidance envelopes. Doing so considering the compression/fast flow, when it is more typical to have modeling errors and a systems depicted on one cycle then shuffle in space and time ( and amplitude) on the next. 

The last 4 days it's been about setting coffee down and checking in on any one of those in the series to see how they are doing. interesting -

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR has a pretty damn good thump tomorrow 6-10am in CT thump is probably 2 hours in any once location.. . 1-2" per hour for 2 hours then freezing drizzle .. interesting...

[jbenedet]

Will be interesting to see how surface temps perform tomorrow along the coast. 

The mesolow is a bit of a forecast trap given the syntopic ageo gradient is still very much oriented off the atlantic, with the primary in ontario at ~988 mb, and surface high to our south/east. Winds are out of the south/east along the coast as early as 12z tomorrow...The surface cold seen on guidance for tomorrow morning is very shallow and radiational cooling induced - the atmosphere is otherwise relatively warm to start.

[Spanks45]

31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR has a pretty damn good thump tomorrow 6-10am in CT thump is probably 2 hours in any once location.. interesting.. 

It has an impressive area in South/Central PA too....I don't think any other models show that, maybe it's off its rocker? Hope it's right though, it has been on the colder side of things for quite a few runs now

[Spanks45]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Will be interesting to see how surface temps perform tomorrow along the coast. 

The mesolow is a bit of a forecast trap given the syntopic ageo gradient is still very much oriented off the atlantic, with the primary in ontario at ~988 mb, and surface high to our south/east. Winds are out of the south/east along the coast as early as 12z tomorrow...

It screams faster than modeled change over regardless of surface temps....I always hate those systems, expect an inch or 2 before change over, but precip starts as a snow/sleet mix and goes to sleet shortly after...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It has an impressive area in South/Central PA too....I don't think any other models show that, maybe it's off its rocker? Hope it's right though, it has been on the colder side of things for quite a few runs now

Ya NAM is colder from 6z but no where near that, 3km is a bit warmer than 6z but does make sense.. Will be a nowcast for SW extent of the thump, and the intensity of the thump..

[SJonesWX]

Seems like a 3-5” event for up here

[ORH_wxman]

Just not a whole lot of exciting dynamics with this thing. The hope is that the vort attenuates a little less than model guidance shows which would strengthen the thump. But otherwise I think 1-3” for many. Maybe some 4” lollis north of pike into CNE. 
 

All guidance keeps the secondary sfc reflection SE of the region now so I don’t see any liquid precip over the interior. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just not a whole lot of exciting dynamics with this thing. The hope is that the vort attenuates a little less than model guidance shows which would strengthen the thump. But otherwise I think 1-3” for many. Maybe some 4” lollis north of pike into CNE. 
 

All guidance keeps the secondary sfc reflection SE of the region now so I don’t see any liquid precip over the interior. 

Even here maybe 33-34 drizzle briefly before refreeze.

 

One thing to note. There is a buoy in ACK sound that always seems very prone to surface temps. It's been like 32-33F. Reality seems like the real water temp is near 40 like Boston Harbor. It's having a local effect on model temps there. Just beware around there. srfc temps might be modeled a degree or two on the cold side from reality.

[dryslot]

The Nams look good, 3-5" no changes.

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It screams faster than modeled change over regardless of surface temps....I always hate those systems, expect an inch or 2 before change over, but precip starts as a snow/sleet mix and goes to sleet shortly after...

I actually think you're in a pretty good spot for a few inches.

I'm expecting much more of an East/west gradient with this one. Looks like a classic coastal front setup - along 95 and maybe up over my head by 21z tomorrow.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z NAM has a really warm layer at 800 mb now over Logan that previous solutions did not have

30020969563 08014 151317 42999500   
36022982927 -2109 050303 49010207   
42000962729 06211 042417 46000204 

+7 C  seems  bit much...  but if that happens and there's only .2" liq up to that point, Boston proper would net gain probably 0.0 out of this piddling piece of shit event.

On a general note, this was never more than a 2-4 or 3-5er - it's in the bold writing at the thread onset.  But there's more to it than just that. This event has sneakily attneuated by 15 to 20% of amplitude compared to when it was in the longer mid range.  We been over this a hundred times over the last 10 years, the models tend to magnify amplitude and then correct down some as the come into nearer terms - perhaps this is just that taking place.  It's taking a low impact scenario and injuring it more, though.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS thumpy for CT, colder for SEMASS about same elsewhere 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just not a whole lot of exciting dynamics with this thing. The hope is that the vort attenuates a little less than model guidance shows which would strengthen the thump. But otherwise I think 1-3” for many. Maybe some 4” lollis north of pike into CNE. 
 

All guidance keeps the secondary sfc reflection SE of the region now so I don’t see any liquid precip over the interior. 

I never bought the 5" amounts with this POS, anyway, so all good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never bought the 5" amounts with this POS, anyway, so all good.

If this was happening on the weekend; no problem. But it’s again happening on a weekday that’s going to do nothing more than make a hell commute back and forth 

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never bought the 5" amounts with this POS, anyway, so all good.

We're making a living with these pieces of shit this winter, another one after so the pack will grow.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If this was happening on the weekend; no problem. But it’s again happening on a weekday that’s going to do nothing more than make a hell commute back and forth 

Commutes might not be that bad for most. Much of this falls after morning commute and ends before evening commute. Exceptions might be SW CT where it could affect the morning commute and then further northeast into Maine where it could still be steady precip during evening commute. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah main roads will be treated or plowed too. I don't think commutes are going to be heavily impacted. 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Commutes might not be that bad for most. Much of this falls after morning commute and ends before evening commute. Exceptions might be SW CT where it could affect the morning commute and then further northeast into Maine where it could still be steady precip during evening commute. 

Yeah down here by 7:30 we’re going pretty good

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah main roads will be treated or plowed too. I don't think commutes are going to be heavily impacted. 

ehhh IDK...it seems like local municipalities have really started "slacking off" over the years. And I put slacking off in quotes because I just wonder if its budget related reasons...almost like many towns are preferring for a good chunk of the storms to be over before going heavy with road crews and reducing OT pay.  

[8611Blizz]

Temps will be the deciding factor as to how easy the commutes are. I've seen some different forecasts with highs after the snow ranging from 34 to as much as 39 (along the coast). If thats the case roads will be fine. If it sleets at 32 then it could be a bit hairy. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yeah main roads will be treated or plowed too. I don't think commutes are going to be heavily impacted. 

They have been running nonstop here on Main Street yesterday and today in preparation... Seems the town officials know what is possibly coming (live on second floor Apt so clear view of the street below)

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh IDK...it seems like local municipalities have really started "slacking off" over the years. And I put slacking off in quotes because I just wonder if its budget related reasons...almost like many towns are preferring for a good chunk of the storms to be over before going heavy with road crews and reducing OT pay.  

Meh, for a few inches this is NBD. They salt the shit out of stuff around here. Other than the typical drive slower stuff, I don't see that much of an issue on the main roads in this area.

[dryslot]

What a soft society we live in.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a soft society we live in.

America is on its way to being great again. This sally ness too will soon be gone 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh, for a few inches this is NBD. They salt the shit out of stuff around here. Other than the typical drive slower stuff, I don't see that much of an issue on the main roads in this area.

Yeah good point. 

It's actually probably moreso the way people drive now that make these situations seem worse. 

[George001]

Light snow isn’t really a big deal for commute, the bigger worry is the ice.

[8611Blizz]

The unknown factor for roads is the commuters themselves. How many of them will be out there? Hopefully not many.

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

America is on its way to being great again. This sally ness too will soon be gone 

I hear they have a great road crew in Gaza!

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

America is on its way to being great again. This sally ness too will soon be gone 

Having the cowboys suck year after year is helping!