Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[Go Kart Mozart]

So its coming north, or south.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

basically 0.25" > region wide .. where's the beef? 

You need to maintain that leading vort…if it attenuates too much you lose those dynamics…aka, no bent back ML warm front…instead it’s just kind of a weak general isentropic glide with no defined area of enhanced vertical motion. I think it will produce enough for solid advisory snows but not more than that. 

[weatherwiz]

This is essentially a 2-3 hour (3 hours probably even stretching for some) humpity, thumpity of snow followed by some light-to-moderate IP (and some ZR in spots) which will make road conditions even worse and clean-up not so fun.

[Chrisrotary12]

Anyone else notice that the best slug of moisture skirts the south coast and cape and doesn't really make inland? Bring 'em down?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is essentially a 2-3 hour (3 hours probably even stretching for some) humpity, thumpity of snow followed by some light-to-moderate IP (and some ZR in spots) which will make road conditions even worse and clean-up not so fun.

Not even sure it's a thump. Could easily be 3-4 hrs of lgt snows with bursts of mdt too. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else notice that the best slug of moisture skirts the south coast and cape and doesn't really make inland? Bring 'em down?

Shitty vort sometimes means you can't get the goods deeper NW. So, you're relegated to best WAA. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not even sure it's a thump. Could easily be 3-4 hrs of lgt snows with bursts of mdt too. 

That would royally suck

[ineedsnow]

Icon looks good 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon looks good 

SREFs?

[ineedsnow]

1 to 4 for many.  Not a big event but atleast it's something

[JC-CT]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM is anemic. Basically a little -SN then sleet/ZR.

how is it so different from the 12km

[Torch Tiger]

1" "thump" lol okay, the hyperbole is funny

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SREFs?

Lol haven't looked but the 18z RGEM is great 

[Damage In Tolland]

We jam 

The surface low pressure system looks to track near
the Cape/Islands. Given that the low is tracking underneath us the
shallow cold air will remain jammed in for much of the region. Temps
likely remain below freezing northwest of I-95 Best chance of
boundary layer temps rising above freezing will be along and
especially southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor...where
Ptype may change to all rain before ending assuming temps are able
to inch above freezing.

[dendrite]

Maybe an icky thump?

 

[ORH_wxman]

At least for the pike region, the models are pretty consistent about advisory snows....including the Euro. Down in CT, it's basically every model except the Euro.

 

edit: I'll note that the EPS mean for Hartford is around 3" though, so it's a bit more bullish than the OP run...most noticeable difference is down in S CT where the EPS mean is 2-3" vs C-1 for the OP run.

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least for the pike region, the models are pretty consistent about advisory snows....including the Euro. Down in CT, it's basically every model except the Euro.

 

edit: I'll note that the EPS mean for Hartford is around 3" though, so it's a bit more bullish than the OP run...most noticeable difference is down in S CT where the EPS mean is 2-3" vs C-1 for the OP run.

P/C for this section of the Pike region is calling for 1-3.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

P/C for this section of the Pike region is calling for 1-3.

Well that settles it 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

P/C for this section of the Pike region is calling for 1-3.

I'd take the over on 1" and there's a chance it could be 4-5" if things break right...not a large quibble though. I think i'd go 2-4 and prob 3-5 if we can eliminate some of the weirdo solutions by 00z like the 3k NAM giving us 4 hours of SN- that amounts to 1-2"...or some of those zonked Euro solutions which give us 2-3" but dangerously close to giving us 1".

[HoarfrostHubb]

This seems pretty straightforward.  
3-5” in my area.  Leaning towards 3”

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This seems pretty straightforward.  
3-5” in my area.  Leaning towards 3”

I like that number here too, This doesn't seem to be as dynamic as some models were a few cycles back but we will see if that ramps up some as we get closer in.

[The 4 Seasons]

GFS took a haircut on qpf but the overall evolution and track remains consistent 

[ORH_wxman]

Not an appreciable difference in 18z GFS. PRetty consistent with other guidance for most of us. On the margins there might be changes. Maybe a touch weaker with the initial thump down in S CT if we're nitpicking, but still a pretty cold run with the sfc reflection tracking from near Delmarva to ACK.

[Kitz Craver]

Still cold, but a little less dynamic in CT when toggling 12/18z

[CoastalWx]

BOX map is a pretty good first guess. You could argue the chance for more near and north of pike, but not high confidence for that.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

BOX map is a pretty good first guess. You could argue the chance for more near and north of pike, but not high confidence for that.

Yeah I'd want to see more guidance spitting out 0.40-0.50" of snow QPF before going anything above 4". Maybe that happens at 00z, but it's entirely possible it's mainly a 0.2-0.35" type event on the snow front.

[JC-CT]

Nickle and dimes, some might say

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18z euro a touch colder than 12z

[The 4 Seasons]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z euro a touch colder than 12z

defintely ticked south overall a hair...getting closer to what the GEM/GFS/NAM are showing